Play out that the FC group challenges McCarthy and we are in Speaker election orama part 2. Not much pay off to the FC he has left to give. I asked this during part one but here we may yet be again: what would be the Democrats’ price demand to give him enough votes to remain?
If he just promises to stop kowtowing to the Chaos Caucus they’ll probably throw him a lifeline. Gaetz and Co. have no power if they can’t throw the House into disarray every time they throw a temper tantrum. Even if the Dems just promise to vote “present” and let only Republican votes sink or save Kevin, the absolute loons are a relatively small part of the entire Republican House. Gaetz is working on the assumption that his 15 or 20 co-conspirators, along with the Democrats, are enough to fire the Speaker. If the Democrats say they want no part of their reindeer games…
I think we should be careful about overstating the Democrats’ bargaining power here. Sure, with their votes plus the Freedom Caucus they can force McCarthy out of the chair. But it’s not like they can then elect one of their own. And there’s no Republican that would be a clear improvement on McCarthy.
I’m a contractor for the government in an R&D facility for the Air Force (AF). If the AF shuts down, the government folks are not supposed to come in, but we are.
I think the play is not to force McCarthy out, but rather, if he pledges to behave, the Dems support his speakership over the howls of the monkey caucus.
Behaving may be the price. But what will count as not behaving?
There is likely no Republican can get enough votes. Choices are as they were in -orama part one: the FC gets enough to have McCarthy as Soeaker; they hold the house hostage indefinitely; or the less crazy House Republicans come to a deal with the Democrats.
Yeah, this is where I get stuck in seeing a “deal” with Democrats to save his Speakership. What, concretely, can McCarthy offer to Democrats? And how can they trust him to carry through on whatever deal they come to? He agreed to spending levels in the debt limit deal then almost immediately undercut them to pander to the FC.
Also, there are some number of House Democrats who will not vote to save him under any circumstances. Nancy Pelosi has apparently been advising Democrats not to bail out McCarthy, arguing that he cannot be trusted. Anything he offers to try to bring more Democrats to his side risks driving off more Republicans. There’s almost no “middle” in the House that he could appeal to with a common agenda.
So I don’t necessarily see a “deal,” but I certainly think it’s possible that just enough Democrats might vote to save him, especially if he puts a Ukraine supplemental on the floor next week. Simply because he will have demonstrated three times that he’s willing to override his most conservative members and allow an open vote if the fate of the nation is at stake. And that may be all they can hope for from a Republican Speaker.
I suppose it depends on who they think would be likely to replace him (McCarthy). I’m not sure anyone wants that job in the current circumstances (except members of the Freedom Caucus who, under no circumstances, should be let within light years of becoming Speaker).
So… is this what’s happening with Ukraine funding?
Any senator can veto expedited passage, and Rand Paul threated to block any bill that included funding for Ukraine. So they had to take it out to get the funding bill passed quickly.
But now McCarthy is introducing a separate bill to fund Ukraine. Is this with the expectation that it will pass? I know the lunatic fringe are against it, but I don’t have a sense of where most other Republicans are. Would they need 60 senators for cloture?
As far as I know, McCarthy has said nothing publicly about bringing a Ukraine supplemental to the House floor. Democrats have said it’s their “expectation” that he will do so, but that doesn’t really mean much. It’s very likely that there is enough support in the House to pass such a bill, but the majority of the House Republican Caucus voted against a Ukraine assistance bill earlier in the week. So, McCarthy would be bringing the bill to the floor when the majority of his caucus is opposed – a violation of the so-called “Hastert Rule.” There are almost certainly the votes to pass it in the Senate as well (it would need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster).