Government shutdown watch fall 2023 edition

I don’t want a shutdown, because I remember the lasting after-effects of Ted Cruz’s shutdown a decade ago. There will likely be long-term belt-tightening & downsizing, making the lives of civil service a bit more hellish.

But at least the GOP are doing it at a point where it will bork the economy in an election year! Anyone paying attention should see who did it, right? The problem is those not paying attention.

Too much of the media will somehow blame Biden, too many of the Democrats won’t run against the GOP Congress like they need to do, and thus Democrats could lose everything because of GOP policies. Divided government is stupid.

Looks like the Senate Republicans aren’t joining in the House reindeer games.

All 12 funding bills have sailed through the Senate Appropriations Committee on bipartisan votes — some unanimous — and senators sound triumphant about completing the task.

Senate Republican leaders are even warning Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., that his party-line approach to fund the government by slashing spending and advancing divisive conservative measures is going nowhere in the Senate.

“McCarthy’s going to be saddled with a public that is pretty convinced if things fall apart here, it is the House Republicans’ fault.”

Wow! Senate Republicans just calling out the game playing for what it is and refusing to be tarred with the same brush. Poor, poor Kevin. He can’t win no matter what he does. I love it. I wonder how he’s liking that job he sold his soul and dignity for now.

Which they get around by hiring lots contractors, like me, whose company earns 99% of their funding directly from Congress. We don’t ever get back pay for furloughs.

The Washington Post has an article up about how the Senate vs House dynamics are likely to play out on the budget. Essentially, the Senate will pass a broadly bipartisan continuing resolution that will likely include additional “emergency funding” for defense, natural disasters and Ukraine support just before the end of September and dare the House not to pass it.

On Sunday, House Republicans announced a deal on a short-term funding resolution. It was negotiated among Republican factions, including the Main Street Caucus and the Freedom Caucus. The deal would fund the government only through the end of October, and institute a 1% reduction to the budget. But Defense and Veterans Affairs would not be subject to the reduction, meaning remaining agencies would take about an 8% reduction. It also includes House Republican border legislation. Oh, and for giggles it reduces funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children. In short, it is absolutely atrocious and should be every far-right Republican’s dream budget.

And, predictably, this morning a dozen Republican members of the House have said they are absolutely opposed because it does not go far enough.

And of course, there response will be that “we compromised”. It’s like offering $5000 for a $40000 vehicle and not understanding why you where turned down.

I’m guessing that cutting the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children is the problem for them. They likely would prefer to see something in the bill the bill that actually punishes them more. I understand that one thing they like is separating children from families and then failing to track their whereabouts.

After all, they want to Make America Great Again. Like the good days when children knew their place.

Or as it was said at the time, if you were drowning twenty feet from shore Nixon would throw you an eleven foot rope. Then Kissinger would say in an interview that Nixon had tried to meet you more than halfway.

Rand Paul (R-KY) has said he’ll block any measure to fund the government that includes money for Ukraine. Yet another roadblock, and I’m sure many people will lay the blame for the shutdown at Biden’s feet, logic be damned. Rand Paul won't support legislation to fund government if it includes Ukraine money | Washington Examiner

So, somebody else in Putin’s pocket. Step on up folks. You may have to wait your turn. The justice system grinds slowly. But it grinds.

Sure it’s not Rand Paul (R-RU)?

This time it looks like they’re really going to do it. Surely Charlie, I mean Kevin, McCarthy could find half a dozen Rs to join the Ds in getting a continuing resolution passed but he knows it would spell the end of his speakership. We’ve got a party that thinks their job is performance art for their most extreme,members and live in fear that a soon-to-be convicted criminal will sic the mob on them. We are cursed to live in interesting times.

Someone should check his bank accounts to see if there are any recent deposits in Rubles.

Nonsense. They’d be subtle and use Yuan.

McCarthy shit the bed again today, when his attempt to advance the Defense Appropriations bill failed because five Republicans voted no. He apparently thought he had the votes after caving to numerous right wing demands, but two Rs who had previously been in support flipped (including MTG).

A leader, a real leader, would tell the Chaos Caucus to pound sand, say that a bipartisan agreement had already been reached between McCarthy and President Biden and approved in bipartisan agreement in the House way back when. Put forward a funding bill consistent with that agreement and enough Republicans and Democrats would vote “yes” to pass it. Or take up the bipartisan plan put together in the Senate. That would probably pass, as well, if Kevin could stop cowering like a scared rabbit and stand up against the extremely small, EXTREMELY vocal minority and get the adults in the room taking to each other. Let the rabid wolves howl about vacating the chair. If McCarthy starts leading instead of being led around by the nose by the dregs of his conference he wouldn’t have to worry about it. If they try to punish him for acting like a sane person the other sane people will hopefully/probably step up and tell the bozos to go back to the circus and leave the grown ups to governing.

Jeffries has made a few comments about Democrats being willing to step in if they receive some concessions. And they aren’t asking for Kevin’s balls on a silver platter, just adherence to deals already made and rejection of the worst excesses of the insane.

It’s a nice dream, anyway.

I think one of these is exactly what will happen in the 11th hour. And McCarthy will keep his speakership.

A reason why McCarthy won’t try to forge a bipartisan coalition on the budget is that — even if he survives the subsequent motion to vacate the chair — it all but guarantees that he will be a one-term Speaker. He will alienate a sizable chunk of his caucus, and Democrats won’t vote next session to make him Speaker out of gratitude.

McCarthy’s whole political career has been about getting the gavel. Expect more and more desperate contortions as he tries to cling to it.

A 1 term speakership is already in the cards if his conference shuts down the government and that helps the dems take back the chamber next year.

True. He can be remembered as a one term failure who kowtowed to the rabble or a one term Speaker who tried his best against horrible odds. He’ll most likely choose the former and act as if there wasn’t any other choice to make.

JOSH: Read me what you got so far.

WILL: “The people, in their enduring wisdom, have put in office a Chief Executive of one party and a Congress of another. It’s our duty to respect and enact…"

JOSH: Strike ”in their enduring wisdom." You think electing a reactionary Congress and a progressive President was wise? The people, in a fog of uncertainty, unsure of the difference, split tickets across the country.

WILL: Well, I agree, but I think Toby would say that lacks poetry.

–The West Wing