Grammar: Will and Going to

This isn’t really an obscure grammar question, and might be more of a poll, so mods, if you want to move it, please do.

The question is this: according to the grammar guidebooks that I have to use in teaching English remedial, “will future” is to be used to indicate either actions that the subject of the sentence cannot influence, or which are suppositions that the speaker of the sentence cannot prove; while “going to” is used to describe actions that the subject can influence, or whose coming to pass is obviously imminent. Apart from the fact that this is a horribly fuzzy definition, does anyone really bother? Is there, in everyday usage, a difference between will and going to?

This isn’t super obscure, but it’s also not the sort of thing that any of us (native speakers) have to know explicitly. We do it without even realizing what we’re doing. But your books don’t seem to explain the situation very well. A better book (mine’s the Cambridge Grammar) will lay out these distinctions more clearly.

One of the key ideas is the sense of immediacy from “going to”, which is easier to see with some example sentences. “Going to” is clearly the closer danger.

That glass is going to fall off the table.
That glass will fall off the table.

And if it’s already started happening, then “going to” is a much better choice. Again, this deals with immediacy: something that’s already started is very immediate.

If you’re going to whine like a little bitch the whole game, then I’m not going to / won’t play.
[sup]?[/sup]If you will whine like a little bitch the whole game, then I’m not going to / won’t play.

There’s also a conditional interpretation related to this immediacy. “Going to” can indicate that the plan is already in motion, whereas “will” might indicate a future condition that’s available if needed.

Yeah, my friend is going to burn you a copy of that CD. [It’s already arranged.]
Yeah, my friend will burn you a copy of that CD. [If you ask.]

And finally, “will” can convey a sharper decision. We would be less surprised if he changed in his mind with the first sentence.

I asked him to come to the party, but he said he wasn’t going to.
I asked him to come to the party, but he said he won’t.

Play with some more examples sentences along those lines, and you’ll be able hash out the distinctions more explicitly in your mind, which will make it easier to teach.

Believe me, there are many more important things for a language learner to worry about than this distinction which never–well hardly ever–matters in the least. The day I learned that French uses exactly the same alternative to the future as English (Le verre va tomber de la table) was the day I stopped trying to learn or use the inflected future (although it is actually easy to learn and use).

This is something I often had to teach while teaching English in Japan. I would keep it simple:

“going to” is used when there is a plan- “I am going to meet my friend for dinner.” (we talked about it and made plans earlier).

“will” is used when you are deciding right now- “You don’t understand the question? I will explain it to you.” (I decided I would help you at this moment).

Of course there are some other instances where things get more complicated but this rule works most of the time.

I’ve just asked a couple of pupils and an English teacher here in England.

The pupils favour ‘inevitablity’:

  • ‘the glass will fall off’ means it is bound to do so
  • ‘the glass is going to fall off’ means it is likely to

The teacher goes for ‘timing’:

  • ‘the glass is going to fall off’ means it is about to do so
  • ‘the glass will fall off’ means it is going to happen in the future

Just to complicate matters (English is such a flexible language!), I proffer:

‘the glass might fall off’
‘the glass could fall off’

Thanks to all for the replies. I know the grammar (though I sometimes fail in the application, mainly when it is considerably less obvious to me than to the book that one choice is correct). Now, specifically, Kappa’s rule is part of what grammar primers here offer pupils (plan vs. no plan), plus glee’s teachers rule of timing is in there as well; and I appreciate Hellestal’s summary, although I do not need it clear in my head so much as I wondered whether anyone bothered in real life. I know I when speaking English do not care for the distinction – and frankly, it’s crummy. The grammar book offered me this sentence:

My sister [have] baby.

Now, I would suggest that it is impossible to determine if will or going to applies. Would anyone be bothered by either choice? The grammar book suggested “going to have”, but explained it by “because you can see her belly bulge, you know it,” which is rather ridiculous.

Since the grammar book is already giving faintly ridiculous exercises, I won’t assume that the mistake in the sentence is just a typo.
It should be:
My sister [is going to/will] have a baby.