First things first. Another lifecycle analysis - see page 49. Also using 150,000 km lifetime for a vehicle and using theUS current (and dropping) 500gCO2/kWh (see figure 9), BEV and PHEVs both substantially lead to decreased lifecycle CO2.
Secondly the total order from the Pentagon will be 1500 vehicles over an extended period of time. So far it’s been 150. As your link admits, total government sales have been less than 5% of Volt sales and most of those are state and local governments, they are a few hundred cars bought across the country between local, state and Federal sources. So, uh, no, the 16K plus of sales are not “forced purchases.”
Look, I think the Volt as is will fail. It is too much a niche car, not enough utility (only seating 4 limits it significantly). But the underpinnings will be used to greater popularity in other vehicles both by GM and more broadly PHEVs’ time is now. EV’s not quite yet.
This is where we really disagree. I don’t think the Volt is a niche car. It’s a car people would flock to with a battery that served their needs. You put a battery in that charges in 5 minutes on 110V it will sell. It isn’t selling because it’s not scratching an itch.
Thanks. I appreciate all the info you guys have to share about this topic. I did know that trains are diesel-electric. (I am a he btw).
I’m dragging semis and trains into the discussion because one the one hand, it does seem like ev’s (or even phevs) aren’t really ready to come into their own yet. OTOH, I think the technology is more practical at a larger scale (specifically freight) and I want people to keep this in mind before they write off ev’s. Freight considerations keep this in perspective.
I get the feeling that the natural gas guys have kind of claimed ‘dibs’ on the freight transportation market. However, while the challenges are serious- I have to dream up something somewhat difficult/implausible to make it work- because there is just so much money to be saved I think ev freight could be practical a lot sooner than ev passenger vehicles.
Let’s not let freight go to natural gas. In the long (and not-so-long) run ISTM ev freight would be superior, and would also help pave the way to cost-effective ev passenger vehicles. Obviously I need to hone this idea, and you 'dopers are the best audience I know of to confirm/deny what I come up with.
It’s sales are limited mainly by two factors and neither of them is speed of recharging.
It is priced not too far off from an entry level luxury class, such as a Mercedes C or a BMW series 3, but is clearly not in that class of vehicle either in appointments, performance, or status signaling. That price range is pretty much niche cars just by price.
Only seating 4 without being a subcompact or a muscle car limits its appeal. Lots of the demographic that might want to buy a PHEV and can possibly afford it have small families; they really need that fifth seat and the ability to lug some stuff on occasion. Still priced less and it will sell.
PHEVs do not need and will rarely use rapid charge. They will charge overnight and maybe a bit at the workplace parking lot. Top off here and there? Maybe but probably not worth the effort for most people. That habit of plugging in when you get home is something we are used to with our phones. That overnight charge will handle most of our daily transportation needs and when it doesn’t those cars are fine hybrids.
You’re right. Not worth the effort for most people.
When fast charging batteries enter the market the sales figures for this type of car will rise quickly. That’s my prediction. That’s when the car becomes mainstream.
I don’t agree with the design details, but the ideas are there. I would add a tandem version that was few feet longer. The design is pretty good as commuter vehicle as a family second car and the great thing is that you can have a one car garage and still have room for this.
The important part is to keep the weight and size down and minimize the battery cost.
Of course, this would be great if they built it as a robocar, so the operator could pull out their tablet or smartphone out and use it during their commute.
Magiver can you please expand a bit on why you think fast charge is required for a PHEV to become mainstream (as compared to incremental cost vs savings relative to plain hybrid and non-hybrid similar vehicles)?
I appreciate the fact that a market segment does not have a convenient place to charge overnight (or at work); do you think that segment is so large as to doom mainstream acceptance?
How exactly those streams will converge over the next decade or so I am not sure (and it may be in several different ways) but I do at least imagine us seeing some very significant generational shifts including urban residents being less likely to own a vehicle and more likely to click for the vehicle they need for that trip’s needs which might even then come to them for a small premium (including single to two passenger vehicles like your imaged robocar) and including multiple trucks driven cross country in a tight aerodynamically efficient convoy 24 hours a day by a single driver at a time or even completely autonomously.
None of the electric cars on the market have a decent range-except for Tesla-they claim 250-300 miles on a full charge.
I see them as having the most likely to succeed vehicle-if they can get their cost down.
A full-electric car, costing under $35,000, with a 300 mile range would be a serious contender!
A123, LGChem, Johnson Controls, China-Bak, hell any of them could provide a battery with that range and power and with better energy density to boot. The issue is being willing to spend enough. Tesla’s trick (besides an amazingly low drag coefficient of 0.24, as low as it gets) is to use laptop batteries as their raw material and special sauce it with their packaging them together. Laptop batteries are already commoditized (mass produced on a huge scale and with huge price competition) so what they spend on the special saucing they’ve more than saved on the parts they put in. Thus for now it is $20K additional to more than double the base 40kWh pack (125 mile range) to the 85kWh (265 mile range). That’s down to under $500/kWh but one does not see that getting much less using that approach. Details here.
The number of families turned off by the lack of a fifth seat is surely no more than 10% of potential customers. Americans who have five people to lug around buy 7 seater vehicles.
As a family man I would disagree. Currently two kids left in house with two others who visit off and on. I have NO desire to have a seven passenger vehicle but no ability no lug stuff or to squeeze in the third person in the back on occasion would be a HUGE problem for me. Of anecdotal note Lyle Dennis, who founded a site to promote the Volt in its pre-release days, is planning to trade in his Volt for a C-Max Energi for that reason too.
Not quite what you are meaning here. 10% as the number of households with 5 or more members? Sure. But not sure how that informs on the question being discussed.
The question however is what percent vehicle purchases are turned off by having no fifth seat and will not require a third row of seating. 10% of households having 5 or more members does not answer that question. Two kids at home and I feel the need for both cars to seat 5. Had three kids at home and felt the same. Brief time all four were in the house (two years) and we did have one vehicle that could seat seven … and the other that could seat five.
Minivans currently have a 4.3% market shareof vehicle sales in the US. Yes there are a few SUVs that have a third row, the Honda Pilot (which we had owned) with its over 100K of sales a year pops right into mind, and a very very few station wagons with a third row. And an upscale minivan, like the Nissan Quest, starts to get into Tesla S range (the one with 125 miles range), which also seats 7 (if two are children) … sure it is not going to be the road trip car but as a Dad, I think that driving experience and style would make that a sacrifice worth making … and I know my kids would have preferred to be picked up in that than a Mommymobile or suburban assault vehicle!
Even the bigger families that have a seven seater vehicle have a seven seater. The other though still needs to be able to fit five in a pinch.
Which huge resource wasting vehicle do you think I think everyone should drive? The Tesla?? First it is not so resource wasting. Second I don’t think even I should drive it. But if I was someone who was going to buy a high end vehicle and needed to carry five adults and two kids around town, well I’d see that as better way to do it than a minivan.