Let’s accept that mainstream need to be able to stop briefly and fill up when low on energy; PHEVs can do that. Just like any other car. They just have to infrequently.
Are you of the belief that the mainstream is unable to develop a habit of plugging in a device as they leave it docked for the night?
are you aware the sales of the Volt are below the extremely low sales projections of the car?
There’s a battery technology that will allow a phone to recharge in 2 minutes. Do you think it will sell well when it hits the market? Billions of people already recharge their phone at night. It’s a given.
Are you aware that that statement has nothing to do with what we are talking about?
The question at hand (do try to stay on subject) is whether a cars like the Volt, or the C-Max Energi for that matter, require fast charging capability before they can become “mainstream.” Or rather why you think they would. Not whether or not they are mainstream at this time. It is without debate that they are not mainstream right now.
To me the issue for most consumers is exclusively marginal cost versus cost savings and the period of time to realize that cost savings, complicated by the psychological tendency to value cash now over savings over time.
Yes, full BEVs, like the Leaf, are vehicles that give up utility without adding all that much over a PHEV approach in return. The will only succeed for the traditional family car when rapid charge and greater range are both extant without a huge price. We are not close to that. They might work within a different transportation model than everyone owning their own family car, and that day may come over the next several decades. But that is not today.
[quote=“DSeid, post:223, topic:636152”]
Are you aware that that statement has nothing to do with what we are talking about?
It has everything to do with what we’re talking about. The Volt is a huge failure despite the media roses thrown down before it in glorious adulation before a single car was shipped.
And the answer is that people want a real car to drive. Not a car that gets 40 miles to a charge if it’s down hill both ways on a 70 degree cloudy day.
I don’t think the Prius was a financially viable car when it first came out. As gas prices rose it created a net return for it’s owners but that certainly wasn’t the driving force (yes I intended that pun).
There isn’t a single factor that keeps the Volt numbers down but I’ll list them:
When you look at the mix it’s different for each buyer but there again, the likely buyer is going to be doing well financially and probably doesn’t live close to work. It’s not a particularly good commuter car.
So which of these two quotes is your actual position?
As to the second quote’s positions …
Most drivers don’t travel very far on a daily basis. For a driver who does routinely drive much more than 35 miles in a typical day however a Prius would indeed be the more energy efficient choice. So far real world data of current Volt owners has shown that about 2/3 over their miles traveled are on grid derived power. Those people do save a couple hundred in total fuel costs per year, do produce significantly less CO2 each year (using typical American power generation), and contribute to America’s energy independence relative to the typical vehicle they might buy and even relative to the Prius.
Exactly.
Yup to no small degree for the Volt. 37 mpg combined on gasoline aint awful for the compact class but it aint great for a hybrid. Better to pair the lion’s share of milers traveled on grid power with a much more efficient hybrid, even if that means a somewhat larger share of miles traveled per year on on gas.
Again, real world data is a result of that real world experience. Roughly 1/3 of the miles driven are gasoline powered.
Maybe. Of course a halo car that performs well would be the best way to repair a poor reputation.
Again, completely agree. Even with the tax credit still a niche car by price and seating/storage capacity that competes poorly with luxury class vehicles. And that would still be the case even if it had a battery that charged in five minutes on 110V.
I don’t see why certain posters think a car like the Volt is only for “rich yuppy types.”
Have they bothered to sit down and run the numbers on a Volt versus a Honda Accord? After the rebates and tax credits the difference is only about $3,400. Now add in the savings from little to no gas consumption (depending on your driving habits of course) and you have a cheaper car that’s better for the environment.
Am I missing something? Is the Honda Accord now in the “rich yuppy” class?
[QUOTE=Mgalindo13]
Am I missing something? Is the Honda Accord now in the “rich yuppy” class?
[/QUOTE]
Um…yeah. Any car that costs more than $20k is basically something that only fairly well off folks can easily afford. And the Volt is basically a niche vehicle that costs over $30k…pretty much the definition of what ‘rich yuppy’ types would and could buy. Working class folks COULD buy a Volt of course (well, some of them could)…but most wouldn’t because it IS a niche vehicle with a more limited performance envelope and a large sticker price.
I guess it’s just a matter of perspective. I don’t classify “fairly well off” and “rich” as the same thing, and I don’t consider someone who can afford a Honda Accord to be rich. I know plenty of people with average (or even below average) incomes who purchase vehicles in that price range.
Further, considering the overall cost of Volt can be cheaper, I don’t see how it’s “pretty much the definition” of what rich people would buy. It’s certainly not in the same category as Lexus, BMW or Mercedes in terms of cost. Not only do those cars often have a higher sticker price, but they don’t enjoy the same incentives or low operating costs.
Working class folks can afford an Accord; it’s one of the best selling cars in America, and the rest of the top three are in the same price bracket. Assuming it’s true that overall lifetime cost of the Volt is about the same, there’s no reason Joe Schmo can’t buy a Volt.
However, as has been mentioned here, I don’t think the Volt makes sense on an economic basis. Just like the first-generation Prius, you buy it to make a statement, not to save money.
The base Honda Accord starts at under $22K. The Volt, after the tax credit (assuming you qualify for it, which means you have a sizable enough income to qualify for it) starts at $32K. That $22K Accord seats 5 not 4, has over 10% more passenger volume, 50% more trunk volume, and an established high resale value. Sure you can spend more on an Accord, the top end Touring model will get you up to that $32K plus range, but that is not the Accord most working class folks are buying. You can also get a Lexus hybrid that gets 42 mpg and seats five for less than the Volt. So price-wise, yeah, in the same category as the Lexus.
Sure, Joe Schmo COULD buy a Corvette or a Hummer as well…but generally they won’t want to incur those levels of debt. ‘Rich yuppy’ types, however (meaning younger professionals…not sure what definition Mgalindo13 is using for that term to be honest) can and do buy things like that simply to ‘make a statement’.
I could afford a Volt (or a Corvette or Hummer for that matter)…but none of them make sense, to me, economically or logistically (well, I suppose the Hummer meets my logistics needs, kids wise, but I’d need a second loan to pay for the gas :p).
[QUOTE=Mgalindo13]
I guess it’s just a matter of perspective. I don’t classify “fairly well off” and “rich” as the same thing, and I don’t consider someone who can afford a Honda Accord to be rich. I know plenty of people with average (or even below average) incomes who purchase vehicles in that price range.
[/QUOTE]
But we are talking about the term ‘rich yuppy types’…which implies young professionals without kids. Not old rich foggies who light their hand rolled Cuban cigars on the backs of the peasantry. Certainly America is a rich country with a high standard of living, but plunking down $30k on a vehicle is still not something that everyone is prepared to do, especially for a vehicle that has worse performance characteristics than much cheaper cars. Your ‘average’ or ‘below average’ types COULD, if they go into hock up to their eye balls or give up other things, buy such a car…but, really, why would they? What’s in it for them?
How is the overall cost of a Volt cheaper? My current car gets 35 mpg, and I paid 11k for it (and it seats 5 with plenty of trunk space and thus far no real maintenance costs). How long would it take me to get a decent ROI on a Volt compared to what I have? My gas bill right now is about $100 per month…so, say $1200 per year. Jiffy Lube adds maybe another $20/month over the course of a year (I assume the Volt needs periodic maintenance though for the sake of argument let’s say it doesn’t). So, let’s say my costs are $1500/year and the Volt’s costs are zero (leaving aside your much larger car payment…I assume insurance would be the same). Counting on my fingers and toes, that means it’s going to take me 19 years (and some change) to catch up. Even if I splurge and go for that Accord at $22k it’s going to be 6 years (with change) to catch up…at the end of which I’ll have a known commodity with the Accord from a resale perspective, while no one knows what a 6 year old Volt will be worth on the resale market.
Below is a quick break down of the costs for each, by year four you end up ahead with the Volt.
Of course there are some variations that you can change based on driving habits and I assumed a 5% annual inflation for gas. Also, some states have higher or lower rebate amounts. Colorado, for example, has a $4k rebate.
Vehicle Volt Accord
Cost $38,535 $22,480
Federal Tax Credit $7,500 $0
State Rebate (varies) $1,500 $0
Price After Incentive $29,535 $22,480
Price per gallon $4.11 $3.79
Miles per gallon 250 30
Miles driver per year 15,000 15,000
Fuel cost per year $246.78 $1,893.50
Cost 1st year $29,782 $24,361
2nd year $30,040 $28,449
3rd year $30,312 $28,449
4th year $30,598 $30,641
I’m not saying that economics are (or should be) a reason to purchase the Volt. Just that it’s incorrect to talk about it as a vehicle that is out of the price range for the average driver.
[QUOTE=Mgalindo13]
I’m not saying that economics are (or should be) a reason to purchase the Volt.
[/QUOTE]
Only rich people (and yuppies :p) base buying a high ticket vehicle on something other than economics. That should tell you something right there.
As I said, ‘the average driver’ COULD buy a Corvette, or some other high priced vehicle…but they don’t. Why? Why do YOU think that, with all of the advantages you posit in your little spread sheet there, the ‘average driver’ is NOT buying a Volt? And that the demand for Volts has not been overwhelming except in very niche markets?
Average people base buying decisions on a myriad of factors. I know people who prefer to live in a smaller place and drive a nicer car, or vice versa. Some people need a mini-van because they have four kids, some people don’t care about their vehicle at all and just buy a new beater car every few years. Some people don’t even drive despite the financial ability to do so.
Again, your comparing the price of a Volt to a vehicle that is much more expensive. I’ve already shown that the cost of ownership is no different than one of the most popular/economic cars available today.
I’m not here to advocate for the Volt. Just stating that, logically, it makes no sense to try and put it in the same class as BMW, Lexus or Mercedes when the cost of ownership puts it closer to an Accord or Camry.
If you’d like me to take a stab at answering your question, I’ll say… I don’t know, great products fail all the time. Mini discs were a much superior technology to compact discs, but faltered. Is it the marketing? Is it that it’s new, and that only early adopters are willing to take the risk?
Anybody have any figures on the cost to replace all the batteries on a Volt, and how many miles or years one set will last? You can’t ignore this expense over the life of the car.
[QUOTE=Mgalindo13]
Average people base buying decisions on a myriad of factors. I know people who prefer to live in a smaller place and drive a nicer car, or vice versa. Some people need a mini-van because they have four kids, some people don’t care about their vehicle at all and just buy a new beater car every few years. Some people don’t even drive despite the financial ability to do so.
[/QUOTE]
All true. But folks who buy a Volt are doing so as a statement…which, most ‘average drivers’ don’t engage in. Which is why the ‘average driver’ in the US doesn’t drive a Volt or even a hybrid, but instead drives…an Accord. Or something similar. Right?
No, I’m saying that the ‘average driver’ COULD afford even a more expensive, premium vehicle…but most of them don’t. Which is why the ‘average driver’ also doesn’t drive a Corvette or a Hummer, despite the fact that through financial contortions they could, if they really wanted too.
You showed a very skewed and highly optimistic way that, in theory, someone could buy a Volt for a similar cost to owing a $22k vehicle (leaving out such trivial details as interest on the loan, and assuming that the costs for a Volt are basically zero for those 4 years, etc etc).
Perhaps it’s because, in reality, the Volt doesn’t have equivalent performance characteristics to that Accord (which seats more and has more storage space, longer range and known resale value), and even with your optimistic spread sheet only starts to pull equal after 4 years? It’s just a thought, but if I were going to pay $30k it wouldn’t be a Volt. YMMV of course.
Could you please point out how the data I provided is skewed or optimistic in favor of the Volt? Yes I did leave out interest on the loan, only because it’s so variable it would be impossible to do an apples to apples comparison. For example, Chevy is running a lot of promotions on the Volt, with zero percent financing being one of the most popular.
I also didn’t include that with the rebates/incentives you could reinvest that money if you have a zero percent loan. Or pay down other higher interest rate loans/credit cards. At the very least you could put it towards the principle of the loan mitigating additional interest or use it to make additional loan payments making the first years ownership cost practically nil.
Standard maintenance was also not included. A non-hybrid vehicle requires more oil changes per year compared to the Volt’s and brake pad replacement is also more frequent.
What am I missing?
You do pay for electricity some too. Let’s go with an official site - fueleconomy.gov. Fuel costs for the Volt (based on 45% highway, 55% city driving, 15,000 annual miles and current fuel prices) $1050, for the Accord $1950. $900/yr fuel cost savings and a few less oil changes, call it an even $1000 less. Assume the state rebate you give it (although to be fair, here in IL it is $4K, and neither the C-Max Energi nor the Prius plug-in qualify) and the price premium is paid in 7 years, not 4 to 5. Using my local state rebate instead it is down to 5.
But imagine it is 4 years, you have to factor in the unknowns. Depreciation is a major cost of ownership - it’s an established and fairly low entity with the Accord, with the Volt? Battery replacement? It may last the length of the vehicle’s life. It may fail just outside of warranty. Replacement price may stay at over $500/kWh (a bit over $8K for the 16.5 kWh battery; it may drop by more than 50%. Big issues. Of course gas prices may go up lots too. Unknown.
Now if one can live with the range of the Leaf that local incentive makes a tempting deal and now that I have determined that my planned C-Max Energi does not qualify for it, one that makes the Leaf more tempting afterall. Basic model $28K after Fed tax credit, down to $24K after the state rebate. Compared to the Volt over $400 annual fuel cost savings and $1350 annual savings compared to the Accord. Carries 5 people. Pays off compared to the Accord in less than two years.
Then again the C-Max Energi has a smaller battery, 7.6kWh, that does not need a special charge port (Add $2K installed) to get fully charged overnight (it takes 7 hours on 110V) and that would cost much less to replace eventually being 1/4th the size, and that are liquid cooled so less likely to degrade as much as quickly (Nissan is having serious problems with battery degradation in hot conditions). It has the added utility of being able to travel cross country lugging a bunch of stuff. And assuming it ends up being similar to (if not better than) the Prius plug in’s total tailpipe plus upstream CO2 emissions (also available customized to your Zip on fueleconomy.gov) it will have fewer CO2 emissions/yr than the Leaf (albeit a couple more oil barrels needing to be imported). The Volt’s CO2 total is 290, the Leaf’s 270, the Prius plug-in is 220. Oil barrels per year is 3.4 Volt, 0.2 Leaf, 4.7 Prius plug-in. (Unlike the C-Max Energi it is never really gas-free; I’d guess the C-Max Energi between the Prius plug-in and the Volt.) For comparison the Accord is 11.0 barrels/yr.
Making a statement to others I am not interested in. The Volt nameplate being associated with “making a statement” if anything turns me off from it some. The C-Max would be more subdued and call less attention to itself. You’d have to know what you were looking at to know it was not just another hybrid.
Decisions decisions!
I’m still leaning C-Max Energi.
[QUOTE=Mgalindo13]
Could you please point out how the data I provided is skewed or optimistic in favor of the Volt?
[/QUOTE]
My understanding is that not everyone qualifies for those rebates, and also the rebate at least wrt the state is highly variable. I gave you my own gasoline costs but you chose to go with a higher as it made your case look better. You are assuming zero costs for the Volt. As noted, you didn’t talk about the actual monthly payment that the ‘average driver’ is going to be paying which would mitigate a lot of the benefit you tried to demonstrate and push your 4 year optimistic figure to perhaps 6 or more years…which then gets into what would the realistic trade in values be, comparatively speaking, between that Accord (a known quantity) and the Volt (totally unknown, especially wrt the battery). Electricity is not free and has a non-zero cost that you didn’t account for.
And that’s off the top of my head. If you don’t see how you skewed your figures there to make the best possible case with the most optimistic figures then all I can say is you need to look harder. It’s pretty obvious.
And they and others periodically run similar things on other cars as well. I’d say interest is a wash, but your actual car payment is going to be higher on a $30k loan than on a $20k loan even if you pay zero interest…no?
It’s an unknown, but you assumed the more optimistic view in your figures. That’s fine, but now you seem a bit hurt that I’m pointing that out for some reason.
MotorTrend guesses depreciation for the Volt over 5 years at $26K and total 5 year cost of ownership at $45.8K.
The Accord? $11K and $33.8K total respectively.
Prius $12K and $29K and the plug-in $16.8K and $34.3K.
Guesses though they may be.
And 5 years is just one point in time. The plug-ins are front-loaded in depreciation in their analysis, the Volt dropping over $12K in value in year one.