Sure, a Volt cost more than some other cars. The same could be said for a Mercedes or a Lexus. Not everyone buys the most cost-effective option available. The Volt isn’t marketed as cheap to own or operate. It’s marketed as a great car that uses less gas. From their website:
The Prius is a very fine car, and at a nice price point. The Volt is a finer car, and it costs a bit more. There really is no mystery here.
They are, but I used the lower end of the numbers to estimate. As noted, CO and IL have higher rebates. (CO is actually $6k , I was incorrect previously)
Even if you assume no state rebate, there is at least the federal tax credit that everyone is eligible to receive. There’s also other financial perks, for example, in the state of Nevada you are exempt from emissions inspections and public parking meters.
Other states are considering things like sales tax exemptions or offering HOV lane access.
I used national averages to estimate, both for the cost of gasoline and for annual mileage.
If I used the price of gasoline local to me (in Los Angeles) and the miles I drive (18k-20k per year) the results would have been even more “skewed.”
I tried to use averages whenever possible.
Not zero. I also used 250 mpg for the Volt, which from reading some of the Volt forums seems to be a low estimate.
You are right, I did not factor in the electricity costs. I had a hard time reconciling this one.
Most public chargers are currently free and most utilities offer significant savings for EV owners. SCE, for example, offers a lower rate to EV owners which offsets the overall electric costs.
Considering I didn’t include brake pad replacement, oil changes or transmission maintenance and only a 5% annual increase in gasoline prices - I think it’s pretty much a wash, but I will concede that it was not a cost I factored in.
Your payment is going to be higher, but my point was that the actual cost of the vehicle over time is lower.
I’m not hurt, I’m just making my case. I think for average drivers, they will see cost savings within 4-5 years and I think the data I’ve provided shows that.
Only if those who owe at least that much in Federal tax. Not payroll tax, not state tax. And at least 47% of Americans (somewhat infamously this election cycle) do not owe any Federal tax. Somewhat fewer would get the full $7500:
And to be fair using current averages very likely significantly underestimates the average cost of gas during the lifetime of the vehicle.
Few will charge their Volt or Leaf or C-Max Energi at a public charger. We’ll charge at home overnight and maybe have realtime pricing that discounts electricity used during “trough” times. Most analyses use something like 10 to 13 cents per kW. When Snopes did their analysis they concluded that it costs about $0.07/mile to travel on electricity in the Volt. 2/3s of real world miles are traveled on grid-derived power. For your 15K example that means about $700/yr of electricity costs. 5000 miles on gas at 37 mpg at just $4/g, $540 (maybe more given it needs premium). Total doing it this way, at least $1240. Again, official verdict, fueleconomy.gov, $1050 annual fuel costs … but either way not $250.
Has this question been answered in this thread? Maybe I missed it.
If the cost for all new batteries is substantial, it should be worked into the per mile figures, unlike an all-gas powered car, which has no such expense.
Sales projections for 2012 were 35,000 to 40,000. Thats not a low projection. It looks like they might actually sell more like 20,000.
You drive at 80 mile per hour? Where are you, on the Autobahn?
Yes, to the degee it can be answered as no one really knows.
Current costs run about $500 -600/kWh and most experts expect it to drop to $250/kWh over several years. That’s current cost of about 14K for the Leaf’s battery, 8K for the Volt, 4K for a C-Max Energi. Half those numbers likely by the time they might need to be replaced. Many predict very rapid drops due to overcapacity in the industry. All guesses.
Expectation is that batteries will last 8 to 10 years but again no one knows. Nissan is having some issues with faster than expected degradation in very hot environments like Arizona but they have no real battery cooling system built in. The Ford Focus BEV OTOH is liquid cooled and should last well as a result, maybe much longer. Tesla’s sytem likely allows for individual cells to be replaced and the system “rebalanced” along the way.
If it dies within warranty (8 years 100K) then some makers will replace the whole thing; Nissan prorates by age (and has stated that the Arizona battery wear is not a defect).
An example of how all over the place battery price estimates and predictions are.
You said it. I have been researching battery replacement prices for the Leaf and Volt, and have run across estimates from $500 (used) to $18,000 (new). There’s uncertainty as to how long they will last (5-12 years) and how many miles (100K to 250K), and how rapidly they will lose capacity.
About the only thing that won’t change much over 10 years is the price of a KWH from the grid, but that’s a small part of ownership cost.
And another consideration – what if battery technology improves considerably, but it’s a different kind of battery, and the existing autos can’t handle it (charge rates, space, weight, etc.) The old autos will depreciate faster than expected.
they were originally 60,000, and that figure wouldn’t begin to financially support the manufacture of the car. They were revised down because of poor sales and they had to temporarily shut down production because those were optimistic.
Texas has 80 mph limits in some areas, and soon an 85 mph area. 75 limits are very common, and 5 over isn’t exactly speed demon driving.
Most of New Mexico’s (and Arizona’s) interstates are also 75 mph, and in general I drive them about about 80-83 (just under the 10 miles over limit, since most cops ignore you if you aren’t going over 10 miles over the limit in my experience).
In Canada, many of our major highways are 110 km/h, which is close to 70 mph. But in my experience, the flow of traffic on those highways is closer to 130 km/h, which is about 80 mph.
In addition, a large number of those sales went to government fleets and at least one very large corporation: General Electric.
GE has ordered 12,000 Volts. GE is closely connected to the government, being one of the largest corporate recipients of stimulus money, and having its head, Jeff Immelt, sitting on Obama’s ‘Jobs Council’. In addition, GE stands to profit greatly from ‘green’ legislation as it has invested heavily in wind power and factory control hardware and software that will see a big sales boost if factories are forced to renovate their processes. GE is also making a play into the electric car charging station market, so they have a big incentive to see the Volt succeed.
I’d like to know how much of that 12,000 unit order of Volts is baked into these sales numbers.
The 12,000 number is part of the total 25,000 EV number they have committed to over a 5 year period, not all expected to be purchased in this year.
This move to focus on the Volt, rather than spread some to the Leaf as initially stated, may have been a reaction to (punishment for) Nissan’s trying to blame a GE charger for a malfunction that turns out to have been the fault of Nissan’s software.
Yes, GE has a strong incentive to get BEVs mainstreamed as they have heavily invested in being a supplier to the charging infrastructure for these vehicles. Hence their investment in A123 (which just went belly up with Johnson Controls buying their automotive assets) and so on. Makes good business sense to be an early adopter.
The “large number to government fleets” claim hasalready been debunked. As already pointed out
This just in. Battery Maker Files for Bankrupcy
And:
25,000/5 years = 5,000 per year. 5,000 / 20,000 sales is 25% of sales. That’s if GM actually sells 20,000 this year.
Well I’m confident the rest of the battery makers will pick up the slack and invest more money in research while lowering their current prices.
12,000 committed to GM, 2.4K/year on average yearly. GM’s complete fleet is 30K big. Yes that’s a big customer but the Volt *is *a good car for their needs.
Sorry, that’s 12% by GE alone. my mistake.
what would those needs be and how many years do you think a company keeps a fleet car?