On April 7 (My entry in a pool as to when the bombing starts) The US starts Gulf War II. It has no UN backing because Chirac has vetoed the 2nd resolution. Turkey has reconsidered its vote and is allowing US forces in but they are delayed. US and British quickly throw Iraqi command and communication into disarray and Iraqi loyalists fall back into Baghdad.
Then Scuds appear in the night sky heading towards Israel. 1 or 2 a night every other night or so. This time there is no question, payload is serin and unknown biologicals. Saddam is somewhere in Baghdad but cannot be accurately pinpointed. There are still countless number of civilians inside Baghdad. Evacuation is slow and tedious because of reports of loyalists in civilian dress.
Question (or debate) What will the US do now? Sharon isnt going to stand idlely by when a despot launches serin into his country. There is no Saudi Arabia in a coalition telling the US not allow Israel into a fight with no UN sanction. This is going to be a free for all and given the Patriots poor performance and unproven capability of the new Israeli Arrow anti-missile system, some of these serin scuds are going to get in and kill israelis. Whats Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan going to do when Israel joins this war?
Never happen. Saddam is not that stupid. He may not be the best military strategic planner, but he’ll not do that.
The main reason he won’t is because then he will be validating Bush’s point, and the nations voting against the US invasion will all of a sudden, JOIN the US and Saddam will be curtins…
Phlosphr -> I agree. If I were Saddam I’d bunker up in Bagdhad and try to hold on as long as I can, trying to make the war as unpopular as it can possibly get. He’s already clobbered the U.S diplomatically. Using WMD would be of minor effect in the way of stopping the US+UK military and it would nullify all sympathy he has collected from the world.
Actually, Phlosphr, I expect the opposite reaction if Saddam provokes Israel into attacking. The Arab countries - Iran, Syria, Jordan, and so forth - will take that opportunity to attack Israel.
The other possibility is that WMD use against Israel triggers a tactical nuclear strike against Baghdad by the Israeli air force. Quickly, before US troops get into the city.
Unfortunately, this is a plausible scenario. (As an aside, if we wait too long, the scenario might include nuclear-tipped missiles fired at Israel.)
Anyhow, the countries you list would surely stay out of this war. But, even without their participation, this hypothetical situation is bad enough. It could mean the deaths of tens of thousands of Israelis and Iraqis or more. I’m not sure Israel wouldn’t respond with nuclear weapons. :eek:
Iraq might launch conventional missiles on Israel, hoping to get a reaction, just like in Gulf War I. A large percentage of world opinion would blame the U.S for provoking them more than they would blame Iraq. I suspect the rest of the arab world would sit still. I think they prefer the Status Quo, albeit only by a slim margin.
Isn’t this exactly what he did in Gulf War I? Only without the bio stuff. The thing is, he probably had more bio weapons then than he does now. And Israel has a much improved Scud intercept system (Arrow) than the one they used in Gulf I.
I heard this quote from the History channel, “We (in the CIA) will not predict what Saddam will not do.”
I am not saying Saddam is stupid. No one holding power for 30 years can be called stupid. He is insane, tho, and when it is down door to door fighting, the US breathing down his neck, his last hurrah might be a release his hidden weapons. When you have nothing to lose youre not going to think about validation. When he knows he’s gonna die (and he himself has said he will not be captured, imprisoned or be exiled) then something like scuds for Israel seems not too far fetched.
How can Saddam launch any weapons into Israel? From reading this board, I thought that Iraq doesn’t have WMDs or missiles with the range to reach Israel.
Many have argued that the Bush administration is lying about WMDs to justify war. I swear I read right here (but not in this thread) that there is no proof these weapons exist. The inspectors haven’t found them (except those missiles currently being destroyed and they only have the range of 93 miles). Besides, Saddam says the WMDs have been destroyed.
No, that is not what I intended to imply. I do apologize. In my somewhat fumbled attempt to use the smiley (which I don’t believe I will do again), I deleted part of my post. To whit:
So, the OP is a non-starter because these weapons don’t exist.
But in the interest of full disclosure, I do want to make my opinion clear: I do believe these weapons exist. But, that is only my opinion. I have no inside knowledge and I am not being consulted in any official capacity on whether we should go to war, so my opinion isn’t worth squat. As many others, I am on the fence as to whether war now is the best option.
Iraq says they have destroyed all of their long range scuds, Nerve gas and biological capability and they havent imported any parts to build a nuclear bomb or have imported any nuclear fuel.
They have no documentation as to how or exactly when they did this.
Only Iraqi military (loyal to Saddam) are witness to the destruction.
Thier disclosure of the amount of nerve gas that were destroyed is short of what the US estimates they had at the end of Gulf War I. Verification thru documentation and inspection has been hampered by Iraqi military. Still pending.
After Iraqi protests regarding not being able to prove what doesnt exist, Samoud missiles and cluster bomb technology modified for nerve and biological agents are found. Destruction is done deliberately slow.
My WAG: Saddam has several scuds hidden. Mobile laboratories, which carry nerve warheads are constantly on the move to avoid detection. At a preset condition, (such as the imminent fall of Baghdad) the labs will meet up with the scud carriers and arm them. Target will be Israel.