I’m wrapping up a business trip to Orange County this week, and have the morning news on this AM which features a lot of “Recall Newsom. Elect So-and-So.”
Not wanting to stray into a political debate, but two questions pop into mind:
What are the motivating issues in recalling this Governor (Newsom)? Commercials keep mentioning high gas tax rates, and crime–is that it?
Isn’t this the second recall in a decade, or so? I vaguely remember another, pre-Schwarzenegger Governor under a recall. Same issues?
Tripler
First business trip in 18 months–it was good to get out of the house.
That’s an inevitable result of a heavily polarised partisan political environment. It takes twelve per cent of the votes in California to initiate a recall, which is well within the reach of the minority party. The pre-Schwarzenegger governor who was successfully recalled was Gray Davis, IIRC.
In 2003, Gray Davis was recalled (and Schwarzenegger was elected). It’s the only other recall in California history to get to a vote, but my understanding is that every governor since 1960 has faced some sort of recall effort.
Oh wow, I didn’t realize the threshold for initiating a recall was that low! According to Wikipedia, there is 39.5M living in California in 2020, so 12% takes ~4.75M votes to initiate a recall election. Jeez. . .
Thanks @Falchion! I didn’t know the Davis recall triggered Schwarzenegger’s election!
Tripler
New Mexico recently had a State Legislator resign–pretty tame in comparison.
It’s actually 12% of the total number of voters from the last election to that office. 12.4 million votes in the 2018 election, so you only need 1.5 million signatures to initiate a recall.
The motivating issue is that the Trumpists are using the laughably easy CA recall process + the right-wing rabid hatred of anything Californian to flex their political muscles. The Sacramento Bee analyzed the motivation behind the recall and concluded it’s pretty much as we suspected: disaffected Trumpers looking to gain attention:
The crazy recall rules in this state pretty much guarantee that a minor plurality extremist candidate will be elected if the recall succeeds. Even if it doesn’t succeed, the instigators can congratulate themselves on creating maximum trouble for the Dems and free publicity for their “cause.”
The motivations of this specific set of voters is barely even relevant. With it being that easy to initiate a recall, it’s inevitable that no matter who’s governor, and what their politics are, it’s going to be easy to find enough voters to initiate a recall.
Which is why the process has been used for every governor (of both parties) since 1960, as @Falchion mentions.
And if the recall succeeds, it pretty much guarantees the election of a new governor with less than 20% of the vote. If, for example, 50.0001% of the voters vote to recall, then the top one of the dozens (literally) of candidates running–which cannot include Newsome–will be elected no matter how few votes they receive. A system designed by an idiot for idiots.
The initial push for a recall happened pre-covid when Newsom raised vehicle registration fees to pay for road repairs. Then it morphed into the cluster-fuck you see today.
It is interesting, of course, that while this seems correct, and while efforts to initiate a recall have be attempted for all governors in the last 60 years, they’ve only been able to find enough voters to actually initiate a recall twice.
And similarly, in the only successful recall, the winner was elected with 48% of the vote (a higher percentage that the recalled governor was elected with).
Wait, lemme get this right: in a California recall election, 1.5 million signatures get to start the recall, and whomever gets a majority of those 1.5 million votes (of a voting population of 12.4M) is elected to replace the prior governor?
Tripler
Jousting. It should be decided by Jousting.
Nope, it’s worse. 1.5 million signatures to trigger the recall election.
Then if 50.0% + 1 of however many people actually get off their ass and vote in the recall vote yes, then the gov is recalled.
Additionally, whoever gets a plurality of however many people actually get off their ass and vote in the recall becomes the new governor. In this case they will be up for reelection in another 14 months.
Wasn’t most of the Gray Davis recall based around the rolling blackouts due to Enron playing energy games in California, also the dot com bust whacked the economy hard?
For the Newsom recall, there’s also a small, but very loud group of lefties that were definitely amenable to ‘punishing’ Newsom
There is a concern that the Republican rabble are roused and may vote en masse, while Democratic voters will be complacent and lazy and not bother getting off their asses, leading to a successful recall.
However, it may not be quite that bleak. As I understand it, mail-in ballots will be sent to all registered voters. (Or maybe all registered voters who voted in the last election?) Anyway, that may make it easy enough to vote that a lot more of the supposed complacent people will take the trouble to do so.
It’s an artifact of the insanely flexible California State Constitution, as bequeathed to us by the Progressives in the early 20th Century, so it can’t be fixed at the level of the state legislature. We’d pretty much need to scrap the whole state constitution and write (and ratify) a new one in toto.
If this does succeed, then someone should immediately recall the winner and the Dems should let Newsom be their only candidate. In other words, demonstrate how ridiculous this thing is and get some momentum to remove the recall from the California constitution. Or at least make it more difficult to initiate one.