In April 2001, 2 months into George W Bush’s first term there was a mid air collision between an USAF surveillance aircraft and a PLAN fighter jet which became known as the Hainan Island incident
I presume Wiki gives a reasonable summary. My interest is the background.
At the time the political and economic climate were much different to today. The PNAC was at it’s zenith. The US economy was still growing (just). The US budget was forecast to be in surplus. The US military was strong. The Religious Right was stronger again.
On this message board outrage against China predominated. Unfortunately threads on the topic would seem to have been archived, but “higgnorhant furriners” like myself, or local moderates who proposed a diplomatic resolution were roasted. In extremis, the odd “we should glass 'em” was bandied about, if my memory serves correct.
As it turned out the calmer heads prevailed. The US got it’s pilots and plane back (in pieces but since recommisioned) for a modest cost in expenses and a pro forma letter of “oops, sorry”. The Chinese got some small change, some propaganda and possibly some military intelligence.
With the profound change in economic, military and political fortunes since April 2001, what would play out if a similar incident occurred today?
I’d be inclined to think much the same diplomatic moves would resolve it. But what interests me in this OP would be the domestic reaction, as represented by this message board, be as belligerant if the Hainan Island incident happened again?
I don’t think this assessment is accurate. The US economy had taken a turn for the worse in late 2000 and was already in the beginning of recession in April of 2001. It’s also hard for me to accept that the PNAC was at it’s “zenith”; surely that came after 9/11, with the invasion of Iraq? I don’t recall Bush as being all that interested in foreign policy in the very beginning of his presidency.
I was here at the time but don’t really remember the threads on the topic. It’s very difficult for me to believe that anyone seriously suggested that nuclear weapons be used in reaction. There was never any doubt that the situation would be resolved via diplomacy. The big question was how the incident should affect future US-China relations. A military response was never in the cards.
I don’t think that a similar incident, if it happened today, would be handled any differently.
I think there would be a *lot *less posturing on both sides today. Bush was new and had a yahoo image to live up to. Obama’s been in office for over a year, has been to Beijing and has a working relationship of some sort with Zhongnanhai. Geithner was just in country this past week working on the currency/balance of trade issue instead of fighting it out through headlines and the blogsphere.