Halladay to the Phillies per ESPN

The Game Room
21

This might be a rare 3 team trade in which everyone makes out well.

Phillies upgraded from Lee to Halliday (yes that is an upgrade, dominating the al east is more impressive than the al central or nl east). The reported price is high, Taylor is a very good prospect, but if Halliday signs a 3-60 contract it is worth it. On the open market I would suspect Halliday would approach 6 years 150 million. Not having the 20+ million risk of years 4-6 is significant.

The Mariners got Lee for a bunch of prospects. This trade is about 50 times better than the Bedard one. For starters none of their prospects is close to as good as Adam Jones was and Lee is much less of an injury risk. Additionally Lee may very well make the difference between a post season spot and not (and in the postseason you have to like that rotation), while the 2008 team wasn’t any good with or without Bedard. It looks like the Mariners are making a run before King Felix hits free agency. They just need some offense. A great trade for Lee too, he will love pitching behind that defense.

The Blue Jays showed out it is done getting a much better package than Minn or Cle did from their aces. Give some credit for J.P. too holding on to Halliday when everyone said he needed to trade him. I don’t think they get this kind of package in season. A very nice head start to rebuilding, though their system is still pretty barren.

22

No idea. The ESPN article certainly says he is and if he’s the guy that made this deal go through he must be, a big question will be if he’s better than Drabek or not.

23

Yes he is a very good prospect. Taken 11th overall in the 2007 draft. Some minor injuries and a bit of an inconsistent performance thus far, but dominating stuff. Easily becomes the Jays top pitching prospect.

24

Halladay has almost a 1000 more innings on him than Lee (nearly double) and is a righty. I think the “upgrade” is very debatable. I doubt Halladay is going to get a contract richer than Sabathia’s considering the economy, his age and wear and the fact the Yankees aren’t really motivated to bid him up. 6 years at $120 is probably much closer to reality.

I’m eager to sum up the prospects that get shipped around when it’s official.

25

According to ESPN, Philly is getting Halladay and Seattle prospects Tyson Gillies (outfield) and Phillippe Aumont (pitcher). Toronto is getting Michael Taylor (outfield), Travis d’Arnaud (catcher), and Kyle Drabeck (pitcher) from Philly. Seattle just gets Lee.

So in a roundabout way, Philly got Halladay for Taylor, Drabeck, d’Arnaud, and Carlos Carrasco, Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Jason Knapp, all of whom went to Cleveland for Cliff Lee. They kept Dominic Brown and J.A. Happ. In return they got the two Seattle prospects, and Ben Francisco. Toronto initially wanted Drabeck, Happ and Brown, I think, or some combination involving Taylor and two of those three. Philly kept two of their top prospects and gained two others. This is tough to calculate because I don’t know anything about the minor leaguers who have moved around in these deals, but Philly kept some guys they did not want to give up and go something in the way of replacement, which would not have happened in a straight up deal for Halladay.

26

The deal certainly appears much more complicated than initially thought.

That the Blue Jays are getting Taylor and Drabek, two guys they probably could have gotten last summer for him makes the Lee deal seem somewhat pricey.

I wonder how Drabek and Aumont compare.

27

Definitely. And added to that, Halladay’s expected to sign a contract extension for three years and $60 million, with another year or two in options. Lee supposedly wants more than that.

28

I liked the deal yesterday. The latest reports on the deal make me like it a lot less.

Why trade Lee right away if the Phils are using their own prospects? Sure, it’s not my money. But, a rotation with both of them is awesome. Aside from that. Why trade him now instead of shopping him around? The Seattle prospects aren’t going to Toronto. You can take your time with the deal.

Drabek? All summer long he was untouchable. A future ace that would not be traded. What happened since then to make him expendable?

I don’t mean to sound negative. I do prefer Halladay over Lee. Especially with the contract extension. And, I look forward to how NL hitters react to Halladay. Perhaps, Linceum will have some competition for Cy Young this year. But, I was excited about the Drabek hype. A home grown starter who had a chance to be an ace! I don’t mind giving up the outfield prospects nearly as much.

Then again. This is all rumors! We’ll hear the truth in the next couple of days. It will be easier to judge then.

29

ESPN on some of the rumors:

They say Philly would get a third Mariners minor leaguer. So from their end, they are keeping some of their highest value prospects (Brown and Happ, although some sources have indicated the trade will involve Happ or Drabek but not both) and replace a few others.

30

Never fear, fellow Mets fans! So the Phillies are retooling with one of the top three pitchers in the game? I hear Omar is hot on the trail of 34-year old catcher, who put up a smokin’ .285 OBP in 520 plate appearances (that’s 13 walks!) last year, and who is furthermore a 34-year-old catcher, so how could this go wrong?

31

Drabek is a better prospect mainly because Aumont is likely going to end up in the bullpen. Drabek had tommy john surgery right after he was drafted, but has come back strong.

This trade just seem to keep growing as now Taylor is reportably going to end up in Oakland with Brett Wallace coming to Toronto. I was obviously quite hasty in my initial analysis, so I’m gonna a wait until they make it official before evaluating.

32

SI says Philly is also getting $6 million from Toronto and another Seattle pitching prospect, Juan Ramirez. Halladay’s agreed to the contract, and it has an option for a fourth year. The other details haven’t changed at this point and the deal may be finished tomorrow. ESPN notes that Lee wanted a five or six year contract, and that the Phillies don’t like to make deals of that length with starting pitchers.

33

Te chatter here is that Lee refused to consider an extension, and Halladay allegedly is willing to sign one, so Philly wants the surer bet, and feels they can’t afford both.

Beyond that it’s impossible to ascertain the impact of the trade until we know just who the hell is going where. If Toronto isn’t getting multiple Grade A prospects, it’s a horrible disappointment.

If in fact the deal is Halladay for Drabek, d’Amaud and Taylor and then Taylor for Wallace, I’m reasonably pleased, but who the heck knows for sure.

34

To put a bow on the deal here’s the end results:

PHILLIES GET …
RHP Roy Halladay (from Toronto)
*RHP Phillippe Aumont (from Seattle)
*OF Tyson Gillies (from Seattle)
*RHP Juan Ramirez (from Seattle)
$6 million cash (from Toronto)

MARINERS GET …
LHP Cliff Lee (from Philadelphia)

BLUE JAYS GET …
*C Travis d’Arnaud (from Philadelphia)
*RHP Kyle Drabek (from Philadelphia)
*1B/3B Brett Wallace (from Oakland)

A’S GET …
*OF Michael Taylor (from Philadelphia via Toronto)

  • – minor leaguer

Basically you can boil it down to 3 separate deals involving 4 teams

The Blue Jays and Phillies traded the following players:

RHP Roy Halladay and $6M
for
C Travis d’Arnaud, RHP Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor

The Phillies and Mariners traded the following players:

LHP Cliff Lee
for
RHP Phillippe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies, RHP Juan Ramirez

The A’s and Blue Jays traded the following players:

1B/3B Brett Wallace
for
OF Michael Taylor

Last summer the Phillies and Indians made the following trade:

LHP Cliff Lee, OF Ben Francisco
for
RHP Carlos Carrasco, RHP Jason Knapp, C Lou Marson, SS Jason Donald
You could make the case that the Phillies traded:

RHP Carlos Carrasco, RHP Jason Knapp, C Lou Marson, SS Jason Donald, C Travis d’Arnaud, RHP Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor
for
RHP Roy Halladay, RHP Phillippe Aumont, OF Tyson Gillies, RHP Juan Ramirez and $6M.

Considering the Phillies probably could have had Halladay last year in exchange for C Travis d’Arnaud, RHP Kyle Drabek, OF Michael Taylor or some other 3 player combo that included Drabek they probably wasted a bunch of prospects by not stepping up 6 months ago.

35

As a Mariner fan, I love the deal. I’ve heard the M’s GM speak about Aumont before and it’s clear that he didn’t think Aumont could be a starting pitcher. If Aumont is nothing more than a relief prospect, it doesn’t much matter to me how good he is because a relief prospect just isn’t that valuable. Ramirez and Gillies are decent prospects, but not irreplaceable.

When you compare that to the worst case scenario of one year of Cliff Lee at $8M and then two high picks for compensation for losing a Type A free agent, it’s a no-lose situation for the Mariners.

If the Mariners can add a good bat or two to the lineup, and they have $10-15 million left to spend, then they will have gone from irrelevant to division favorite in just two seasons. Remarkable how quickly Zduriencik has turned around the mess Bavasi created.