Not for very long - the Michigan primary is on Jan. 15, just a week and a half from now.
I’ve said it before, but if I were Huck, I’d all but skip NH, and go directly to Michigan to build up his support there while Romney and McCain fight it out in NH, thus being in good shape to knock off the NH winner, who would be playing catch-up in MI.
If I were one of these guys, I’d have to be polling in the low single digits to drop out before Feb. 5. I mean, if you’ve been running for President for a year or more, what’s one more month? You might as well stay in until the game’s over, since you’re almost there already.
That would confirm the current message that Huck won because of the Iowan evangelicals. Pat Robertson came in second there once, said God wanted him to win, and then he and god got their asses handed to them in NH.
I think the biggest indicator of the future is how the money flows in the next week. If Huck still doesn’t get any, he’s going to be in bad shape for Super-Duper Tuesday.
Not sure. I certainly am old enough to remember Governor Romney, but we’ve had four governors since then. I don’t see a home court advantage for him here and I haven’t met a single person who likes him.
Good question. Other than an ARG poll back at the beginning of September that showed him at 39% in Michigan, every other poll this past year has shown Mitt’s support at anywhere from single digits to a high of 25% in Michigan, with polls in the past month or so all having him at right around 20%.
My WAG is that without a win in NH to make everyone suddenly feel proud of their local guy, there’s no reason to expect much more juice from the family name than the polls already show. If they were going to support him just due to positive associations with his name, they’d have done so already.
According to National Review, exit polls in Iowa showed Huckabee getting only 14% of the non-evangelical vote (4th place among non-evangelicals). The Boston Herald says that 8 out of 10 Huckabee supporters are evangelicals.
Take him into the larger primary states, and he’s going to collapse fast. Iowa may be nothing more than a small, very religious state voting for a very religious small-state person.
I’d lay a Scylla-esque bet that Huckabee doesn’t get the nomination, and I’d pay 2-1 on it.
Thank for the info - I didn’t figure Romney would get a lot of love in Michigan from that long ago, but you never know. I type this sitting in Patrick Kennedy’s district, and lord knows he doesn’t get votes for his scintillating wit. As an aside, somehow the family public speaking gene missed Pat completely, like listening to paint dry. Love him, or hate him big daddy Ted can still deliver a barnburner when he has to.
Looking at those polling averages, it seems to be about 25% undecided in Michigan and about another 25% divided up between Giuliani, Thompson and Paul. It will be interesting to see which if any of those three make it beyond New Hampshire - and of course who their supporters would turn to as a second choice.
One factor that would help McCain in Michigan, assuming that they haven’t changed their rules since 2000, is that independents can vote in either party’s primary. (Maybe even crossover voting too, but I can’t remember for sure about that.) That’s why McCain was able to win their primary in 2000, and it would help him now, since much of McCain’s strength is among independents, rather than strictly amongst Pubbies, but that’s not true of Huck and Mitt.
Of Giuliani, Thompson, and Paul, I think only Thompson might call it quits after NH. Giuliani’s been planning to lay low until Florida, then startle the world with a victory there leading in to Super Tuesday. Paul’s not expecting to win, and is just running to spread his message, so he might as well keep going. And besides, he’s raised all this money; he might as well use it to campaign with.
back at the beginning of September that showed him at 39% in Michigan, 