Check in with Election '08!

Great Debates
1

So there’s lots of threads covering various political topics at the moment, but I’d like to have a place for people to give their general consensus and ideas regarding the current race on both sides. So I’ll give my view. Full disclosure: I support Obama

The Democrats:
It’s interesting…It’s difficult to compare this one with past elections. Isn’t it always? On the other hand, isn’t it always similar? So the basic conclusion is that this time it will be different, except where it won’t be. So that’s meaningless…

But I’ll try to offer my ideas…

The most important question here is, just how much will the early primary states affect the following ones? I can’t really dig up the polls right now, but I believe my assumption that Kerry was polling very low until his Iowa upset. At which point he was catapulted to the forefront of the frontrunners. He was really not challenged afterwards.

Now this time around Hillary is obviously the establishment candidate. She was the assumed nominee from the get-go. However, we have seen a surge of Barack Obama in the past could of weeks in Iowa to the point where he is either tied, or leading Hillary in Iowa. However the caucus is a rare beast. It’s hard to say where the other guy’s supporters will go to.

What is the idea here? If Obama actually pulls off a win in Iowa and NH, will he instantly be leading nationally? Because last time I checked he is about 10 points behind nationally.

The Republicans:
This field is different. Huckabee is the late guy. But he’s got a lot of momentum. Then we have Rudy leading nationally. On the other hand, doesn’t Romney lead in a few key early states? It seems to be essentially the same question. Will a win in Iowa and maybe NH change things to the point where they will instantly win the rest?

It’s the most important question. I tend to believe that the rest of the country follows Iowa and NH and SC.

Remember, in 2000, Bush won Iowa (right?) then he lost NH to McCain. Then after he won SC it was considered over. Of course in those days there was more breathing room.

So what do you guys think? Is it possible that Iowa, NH, and SC will actually decide everything like they normally tend to do? When was the last time we had a nomination process that wasn’t decided by the first hand-full of states? That’s the question, as I see it.

Iowa is way too unpredictable to actually say who can win with the polls the way they are now. Plus the nature of the caucus is difficult too because it obviously depends on who has the greatest support for second choice.

How do you guys feel?

Current events? Hillary has recently hit at Obama for doing drugs as a youth. I would say that this would be damning but, firstly, it’s old news. Obama was very open about his use of drugs in his book years ago. Secondly, Obama always surprises me in his rebuttals to such low-blow politics. He seems to reframe the debate on his terms.

My overall opinion about the race? I think the deal is that people are finally coming around to Obama realizing that he can be more than a wish…The more real the idea of him winning gets, the more real his chances of winning are.

Anyway, please give your opinion of the current race.

2

I would love to be wrong about Obama and believe he has a real chance. I just don’t see, when it comes down to it, many Whites voting for a Black man to be president of the US, no matter how liberal they may be, or purport to be, or believe they are. Obama will probably get close, but folks will hold their noses and vote for Hillary, believing (a) the republican base is much more at home and effective using racist tactics than sexist ones; they know how to disenfranchise African Americans, they’re not sure what to do about today’s educated and politically-astute women, (b) the republicans will underestimate the allure and respect that Bill Clinton still enjoys among, not only the general democratic electorate, but African Americans in particular, and © we won’t have a potential race riot and possible assassination attempt by some crazy, patriotic red neck to deal with.

On the republican side, I believe it’ll probably be Giuliani. The republican party has always been a machine, and the machine has annointed Giuliani. They can’t afford to let Huckabee get too far, in my opinion, and Romney is such a chameleon he doesn’t even know who he is half the time.

If it’s Giuliani and Hillary, Hillary will win. If it’s Giuliani and Obama, Giuliani will win.

I hope I’m wrong.

3

Huckabee is one GOP candidate that the base & swing voters can really get behind. And he’s not part of the Bush cabal at all, so people can still see him as a change.

But the center of the country is likely to swing left after 8 years of a religious-right-affiliated President, so while Huckabee can win the GOP nomination & some states in the general, a Democrat who will appoint pro-choice, moderately pro-environment federal judges can beat any Republican except maybe Giuliani.

4

Well, I think the “…but…but…He did drugs!” bit from the Clinton camp is surprisingly clumsy and amateurish. (They’ve made several amateurish moves lately, which smells to me of desperation.)

Moreover, if the worst dirt that the Clinton camp can dig up on Obama is something he’s already revealed (to no great harm), then that may be all there is to dig up. (You can bet the Clinton campaign has been looking.)

Oh, that and the fact that Obama wanted to be president in kindergarten. Scandalous!

Seems to me like Obama’s in good shape. He can take the high road now, at the same time Clinton’s camp is becoming shrill.

To me, the big question is whether Clinton might finish third in Iowa (and how much that would damage her campaign).

Over in the Republican camp, some of the skeletons emerging from Huckabee’s closet are a bit more damaging. A longstanding habit of accepting big gifts and giving political favors in return looks pretty shady. Still, I think Huckabee will be the man to beat in the long run.

Huckabee vs. Obama in the general (if it happens)? Wow. I think Obama wins that, but it will not be easy. Another close one as in 2000, but I’d say Obama wins. Obama takes Ohio.

5

I think the bigger problem is that a lot of Obama’s support comes from people who don’t normally vote. People who don’t normally vote don’t normally vote for a reason, and people who (had a really busy day at work / couldn’t get to the polls in time / overslept / just plain forgot) in 2000 and 2004 will likely repeat in 2008. On top of that, as Chris Rock eloquently points out, white people say they’ll vote for a black man because it seems like the right thing to say at the time, but when they’re in the polling booth, nobody does.

I’m voting for Obama as well, polls be damned, but I’m sad to say I predict he’ll go the way of Howard Dean - get a disappointing thrashing early on, and then head downhill as a tenuous-to-begin-with support base concedes defeat more quickly than average.

Obama in 2016!

6

It remains to be seen whether a black or woman can win in America. I wish it did not matter but it might.
Rudy is a filthy horndog. He has to get by the Kerik mess, his cheating on his wives, his financial transgressions and then the pictures of him in dresses will not look presidential. He can not win.
I wanted to like Huckabee but his hr interview on Rose left me thinking he is a nut.
Cant go for a Mormon. They believe in something beyond my weird zone.
As smart as Biden is he misspeaks too often. Hillary is too bought off by the wealthy contributors.
I am left with Edwards and Kucinich to fight it out.

7

Ok, for the record, just want to say this is what I see happening.

Obama wins Iowa, Edwards wins second. Hillary gets third. In NH Obama wins another narrow first, Hil 2nd, and Edwards 3rd. After that it doesn’t matter. Obama wins SC and most other primary states…

On the repub side…I see Huckabee going for it all…

In the general I see an Obama win it all. Just for posterity’s sake…

8

Where did this data come from?

9

My slightly fanciful predictions:

Dems: The combination of the longest primary season ever, the celebrity status of Obama, and the fact that those favoring electability are already behind Hillary and unlikely to believe a black man is electable mean that Obama actually gets less of a boost from his victories in Iowa and New Hampshire than history would dictate. It’s enough to win him NH and SC, but not NV. For the first time in a long time (ever?), states after the first four actually matter. Hillary takes some big ones (Florida), but Obama does well enough in the non-winner-take-all states (NY, for example) to remain competitive after Feb. 5. Edwards, a fighter, is alive until Feb. 5 because of his second place in Iowa and strong showing in Nevada and South Carolina. In a brokered convention Edwards ends up giving his delegates to Obama. Obama wins.

Pubs: Huckabee holds on to his recent lead in Iowa, but only just barely as the momentum shifts against him now that he is thrust into the spotlight. Even with the boost from Iowa, he does particularly poorly in NH. Romney takes NH with Giuliani second. South Carolina is a total clusterfuck, but Romney takes it and Huckabee takes second. McCain is out, throwing his support to no one. Huckabee and Romney’s increased national exposure does not treat them well. Giuliani, still alive as the ultimate comeback kid, crushes everyone on Feb. 5 and has incredible momentum thereafter. Giuliani wins.

Giuliani’s victory leads to much talk of a religious right third party, but it never materializes. Obama’s experience issue turns out not to matter very much compared to Giuliani’s highest office as mayor. Obama’s drug use and Giuliani’s adultery lead neither man to raise character as a significant issue, though outside groups try unsuccessfully to do so. On the issues, with abortion and global warming effectively neutralized, the general election focuses on immigration, Iraq, and health care. Despite the apparently limited success of the surge in reducing violence, the lack of any political progress makes voters lean toward Obama on Iraq, but not strongly. Immigration mobilizes Rudy’s base, but the Supreme Court’s gun control decision in August (which limits itself to DC) highlight’s Rudy’s position and dampens his support among hard-core conservatives. In the end, the result comes down to how much voters think Obama’s health care plan will cost, and whether they are willing to pay for it in taxes. They are. Obama wins. :smiley:

10

Oops, forget Florida. Forgot they don’t count. Same for the rest.

11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8 How do these videos go away.

12

Much as I dislike Hilary, if the Democrats come up with an Obama / Clinton ticket, the Republicans might as well go home. Obama has something of the air of JFK, and by getting Clinton as VP, they’ll get Bill as well.

But really, from this side of the Pond, both sides have a lot of good candidates, most of whom will serve America well.

13

I don’t see anyway Hillary accepts a No. 2 spot on the ticket. Her ego just won’t let her. If she loses the nomination, she’ll probably mount a campaign to oust Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader and take that spot over (given Reid’s record as leader, she might even have a decent argument).

I thought the Clinton folks learned their lesson after everyone ridiculed them for bringing up a kindergarten essay, but I guess that’s not the case because bringing up Obama’s drug use is way below the belt. I don’t see how that helps her anywhere. And if she thinks associating the one black candidate in the race with drug use will play well in South Carolina, she’s fooling herself.

For the Republicans, Romney had a very clear path to the nomination until Huckabee clicked with the evangelicals. And Romney’s biggest problem is that little of the dirt now being thrown around about Huckabee will do little to dissuade those evangelicals to find another guy, because he’s still one of them. The exception is the parole of Wayne DuMond. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Romney’s campaign bring that up over the next three weeks.

In both parties, another problem is Iowa coming immediately after the holidays. Public opinion might freeze into place around Christmas and not change much through New Year’s Day. Right now that’s good news for whoever’s got momentum – Obama and Huckabee.

14

I disagree. Add to those folks who won’t vote for a Black man in the privacy of the booth those who can’t bear to vote for a woman. :slight_smile:

I think it will be Rudy and Hillary, with Rudy winning.

15

People have commented in other threads about the Democratic party’s ability to shoot itself in the foot.

16

That these attitudes persist saddens me.

17

I still don’t see Rudy’s path to the nomination… lose in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and still win it all? That just doesn’t seem feasible to me.

18

Obama is this year’s Howard Dean. He won’t be a factor.

Clinton will win and we will probably look at a Clinton/Richardson ticket.

I see Huckabee taking the GOP nomination. The Religious Right has a stranglehold on the primary states. They’re not going to let a Guilani or Romney win. Just listen to Christian talk radio for a few minutes.

I could see Guiliani as a possibly VP. However, not sure Rudy’s ego would allow him to be second place.

19

Obama is picking up steam right when Dean was starting to lose it.

20

My opinion of others, or others opinion of race and gender? :slight_smile:
Both also sadden me.