Okay, we have enough threads talking about Palin as a pick, person, and politician. Now that we have the Republican ticket, it’s time for a companion thread to the Obama/Biden '08 thread (which, BTW, wasn’t started by me; it’s a second incarnation after the first descended hopelessly off-topic).
Here’s the place to discuss the ticket as a whole, their strategies, and chances. How strong are they in general against the Democratic ticket? Will they perform well in the debates, or at least acquit themselves? How do their positions, ads, and such stack up?
We haven’t seen Palin get interviewed yet, so we don’t know her position on a lot of national issues. The way she handles those interviews in the next few week will make or break the ticket.
McCain also didn’t do a good job with her background check, so there is always a chance something unpleasant will turn up.
Gallup poll has Obama +8 and Rasmussen has him at +6. His average on RCP is +6.4, which is welcoming news. Though Obama still has never received more than 50% in the polls. There seems to be a few people willing to swing back and fort between the two candidates and about 80% have their minds made up. I think the Palin choice is hurting McCain with those swing voters.
If McCain wants to win he has to forget about his base and go full speed ahead after the moderate swing voters.
Actually yesterday had him at 51% in Rasmussen and 50% in Gallup for the first time. The rest of your analysis is fine enough. My personal guess is that Palin’s Hard Right cred and good first impression on much of the middle shaved a few points off of an Obama speech bounce by consolidating the RR core to McCain and keeping the middles assessment at bay, but that as her baggage emerges it will more than offset any bounce McCain would have gotten from his convention. She will become more of a debit in the national trackers as she continues to get vetted and as that process sucks all the air away from any message that McCain is trying to project. Of course it is not impossible that she will be such a quick learner that she will shine in the debates with intelligence, charisma, and quick wit. If so then she’ll end up helping McCain even with the middle even despite the fact that her positions are far to the right of most of them. I just doubt it.
Strategically in this election McCain had the difficult task of balancing being Right enough to get the core to actually come out for him while being centrist enough that the middle would vote for him. This choice swings him hard to the Right. He is off-balance and Obama-Biden will keep him from regaining any footing. He’s stuck there now.
Obama-Biden will likely stay at 48 to 52 and 4 to 8 above McCain-Palin in the national trackers from here on out. That said Palin’s hard Right cred may help secure some Southern states for McCain that were possible Obama pick-offs if the RR turn-out was significantly off. Electorally he may be no worse off, but that is still losing it.
I was just coming in here to say that. I just noticed it a few minutes ago.
I think you’re right about Palin throwing McCain off the delicate balancing act that he’s been playing. Looks like the polls are confirming that independent voters don’t like his choice. Now I assume McCain is going to stop trying to appeal to the right and go completely after the independent voters.
If it’s true that McCain really wanted Ridge or Lieberman (per this thread), and let his handlers change his mind, what does that do to his “maverick” image? Irreparable damage, I would think.
One thing I keep hearing from the Republicans being interviewed on the news channels is that the choice of Palin “solidified the conservative base” behind McCain. My question is, did that base really need solidifying? I mean, was the right really going anywhere? I can’t see them voting for Obama, so it seems to me that someone who could appeal to the “swing” voters would have been a better choice, like the aforementioned Lieberman. Yes, I know he’s really a Democrat in registration only, but I think he could have appealed to the conservative-to-moderate Democrats who might see Obama as “too risky”. And picking a registered Democrat would have been a far more “maverick” move than the one he made.
The Democrats need to exploit the choice of Palin as a short-term “stunt”, the purpose of which was simply to win the election, with no thought to the future. That way, they can “go after” the choice without actually “going after” Palin herself, thereby keeping their hands clean.
Even if the Obama/McCain debates were a draw, the Biden/Palin debates should pretty much be a a rude awakening for Sarah. Not only as an introduction to national politics, but an introduction to a skilled, articulate opponent. I think the pressure will have taken it’s toll on her by then and she’ll offer a thanks, but no thanks, to McCain.
As I’ve commented earlier, reading the comments at cnn.com, I’m left to wonder whether the mightily impressed talking heads were watching the same speech as the actual viewers: