Is Sarah Palin a major turning point for McCain?

Great Debates
1

A repost of a thread that disappeared during the great reboot.

The main Palin thread (600+ posts disappeared forever on Tuesday!) is a lot of talk about Palin’s qualifications for VP (and possibly President), so I thought I’d create a thread concentrating on a slightly different aspect.

From what I’m reading, the Palin pick has suddenly made a LOT of conservatives lukewarm about McCain forgive EVERYTHING and get really enthusiastic about him, donating money and eagerly awaiting a chance to vote for him.

My question is, will this last until November, when it really counts? Will the extra money be key? Will this allow McCain to go to the center on stuff like immigration (which he’s done before) without fear of losing the conservative vote? Will this excitement counteract the excitement on the Democratic side about Obama? (In fact, could one say that the Palin excitement is better for McCain than the Obama excitement is for him, since the possible race factor will hit Obama harder than the possible sexist factor McCain/Palin?) If Palin doesn’t screw up royally, did this pick basically give McCain the election, as many conservatives believe (granted, while caught up in the aforementioned excitement)?

Further, there’s a difference between “planning to vote for,” and then there’s “donating to, volunteering for, and actively campaigning for.” There’s a possibility that by “energizing the base,” the Palin pick has increased the latter for McCain, helping to cancel out Obama’s advantage in that aspect. Might that tip things in McCain’s favor?

Anyone care to continue the discussion?

(The next post will have a summary of some of the main arguments from the thread from over the weekend. Don’t worry, NO QUOTES.)

2

A roundup of what happened during the Lost Weekend (apologies in advance for misinterpretations and such):

Madgolf was one of those conservatives who said (s)he was energized by the pick, and that was the case in general for conservatives. (S)he remarked that McCain was “always a leftist,” and that Palin makes him more palatable to conservatives. Sam Stone thought it was a good pick strategically, based on the “experience” dilemma. Hippy Hollow warned against taking Palin’s effect too lightly, whatever it is.

Knorf and Vinyl Turnip were skeptical, as was Snag, who specifically doubted that it as a good thing for Palin to be (in a way) possibly nominated for President. CJJ*, Shayna, DoctorJ, Hamlet, and Diogenes all made comments that indicated that they didn’t believe that the pick really “energized” anyone, that conservatives who seemed lukewarm or reluctant towards McCain weren’t as lukewarm or reluctant as they indicated (or thought themselves).

Marley23 didn’t think that the pick, as an attempt to draw in women, would work well, and generally thought it was too early to make predictions. Phlosphr didn’t think that the pick, on balance, would have a significant positive impact for McCain. He also thought, with DMark, that thoughts on Biden having a hard time against Palin in the debates are overblown.

One of the most interesting comments was from Enola Gay, a moderate who says that Palin has actually changed her vote… FROM McCain TO Obama, due to Palin’s conservative views. On a similar note, Squink posted a poll along those lines.

Plus a lot of other comments, too many to go into here, including Shayna volunteering for Obama (she and Dio don’t think the Palin news will put significant bodies on the ground and cash in the coffers, in answer to my last question in the OP), and a few other points here and there.

3

Not according to recent polling. Obama broke 50% for the first time this week. The movement seems to be from independents who finally are getting off the fence. Now maybe it’s because of Obama’s great convention speech … but he’s given lots of speechs. More likely its because Palin is so extreme she’s pushing middle-of-the-road voters into the Democratic camp.

Sure, Palin is red meat for the base. She’ll increase turnout and contributions. But it’s really a sign of how shaky McCain’s campaign is that he’s worried about shoring up his base at this late date. This is the general election. He should be moving to the center to bring the swing voters into his camp. Instead Palin moves him further right. That’s not a good place for him to be.

4

The base was energized, they were either going to stay home or vote for McCain. The battle is for the moderates. McCain would have been better off with Ridge or Lieberman - who might have made some conservatives stay home while the rest held their nose and pulled the lever, than with someone who drives moderates to the left.

5

It might be a major turning point. He may have just gave away the election. He just gave away the “experience” issue, the “patriotism” issue, the “earmarks” issue and maybe the “Wright” issue. And answered the question about who haws better judgment. What’s he got left? He’s trivialized the election and the office of president. We need a leader who takes governance seriously. That’s a no-brainer at this point.

6

Obama has doubled his average lead in the polls since Palin was announced, so if it’s any kind of turning point, it’s a turn in the wrong direction for McCain.

7

The VP debate is scheduled for Oct 2nd. I wonder what the polls will look like on Oct 3rd.?

8

No surprise, considering.

9

Palin isn’t going to help McCain win any moderates, and I doubt very much it will help him attract many Clinton supporters. To the latter, it’s too obvious that McCain is pandering, and it’s too obvious that he overwhelmingly supports policies that are in antipathy to those of Hillary Clinton. The Palin pick cements that he opposes everything Hillary Clinton stands for.

Any Clinton supporter rooting for McCain now is obviously a complete idiot. Most of them aren’t.

10

After watching for a few days, at best I think it will be a wash. There was a strong indicator that the numbers of Republicans going to the polls this year would be quite low; Palin will bring those numbers back up closer to normal. Independents who would normally vote for the current version of the GOP on their social issues will likely continue to do so

On the other hand, Palin will energize the Democrats and liberals in general. Why? Take your pick: Probably the least experienced vice presidential nominee in modern history, creationist evangelical, political scandals swirling around the governor of a state currently under the microscope for corruption, against choice… Or my primary concern which is not so much Palin herself but McCain’s judgment about making this pick and the wisdom of those around him who’ve advised it. As I said in my earlier post, a good choice for winning votes but not obviously one in terms of governance.

Not only are liberals going to be generally unified and excited about Obama but now they will also be much more determined to keep a McCain / Palin ticket OUT of office than they would have a McCain / Ridge ticket or a McCain / Bailey Hutchison ticket. This might boost the rising number of registered Democrats as it’s now most likely to be seen as an assurance of the continuation of Bush policies. Which could be the final nail in the coffin.

I don’t think this will significantly boost Republican registrations.

11

Sorry. Double post.

12

Actually, that’s a good point: the Palin pick could well energize Democrats–those who were unsure of Obama–to vost against McCain now that he’s shown his frank willingness to pander whenever needed to religious extremists with this baffling and incompetent VP pick.

13

I have seen it theorized by some (at least Pat Buchanan on MSNBC, but I think others as well) that this choice will nail down the conservative base, so that now McCain is free to go out and woo the independents as only he can do so well. So does that mean he’s going to do another 180 degree turnaround on a number of positions? If he keeps doing this, we may have our energy problems solved!

14

Seriously, this one just keeps on getting worse for her - and, as a result, him. It’s hard to get your message out during your own convention when, every few hours, another Palin scandal emerges. :smiley:

And it fundamentally undermines McCain’s claim to be the guy you want to have making the big decisions, because this was a really big decision, and he fucked it.

Not that I’m complaining. I don’t do ‘concern troll.’ :smiley:

15

From The Atlantic:

16

The first post palin speech tracking polls are coming out.

Today’s Daily Rasmussen: Obama +2
Today’s Daily Gallup: Obama +4

RCP Average of all polls: Obama +3.2

This is starting to show a tepid convention bounce for McCain. It still doesn’t include reaction to McCain’s speech, but the game still hasn’t changed so far. McCain/Palin has yet to take a lead or really even pull even with Obama/Biden in the RCP average or the two major daily tracking polls.

Miss Runner UP Alaska is now being shipped back to Juneau to read briefs and cram for hard questions about stuff like US Americans and the Iraq. The McCain campaign is refusing to let her do interviews with the press until they can download some scripted answers into her.

17

Obama campaign raises $10 million in first 24 hours after Palin speech; RNC raises $1 million

Yeah, I’d say Governor Palin got us liberals more than a little fired up.

18

OTOH, another poll (which’ll trigger a thread on a different subject from me soon) says McCain is now ahead by ten points because of Palin’s “filling an enthusiasm gap.”

Of course, as others on this thread have already pointed out, such a thing can work both ways. Will it be a wash? We’ll see.

19

A ten point lead sounds ridiculous to me, but if this Palin stunt actually ends up working, it will be a very damning statement about the American electorate. I’ll be disappointed, but it won’t be my failing, it will be America’s. People get the leaders they deserve. If they really want to continue a slide into Christo-fascist totalitarianism, so be it.

20

“50%-46%” :confused: 10 points difference? Oh, that is for registered voters, the 10 point difference is with likely voters, looking at the overall poll picture so far McCain appears to be only +1 points ahead of Obama, after a convention that is not a very good bump but I expect it to go a little bit higher in a few days only to fall again.