I’m still supporting the Bauer/O’Brien ticket.
So was Bill, but he still made a good president.
True. But Rudy was a horrible mayor.
Yup, I think we have hit the nail right on the head. Remember how Dean was going to change everything? The blogs and online fundraising was going to bring out the disaffected voters who stayed home in 2000.
Didn’t happen. They didn’t trudge through the snow to vote. Iowa will be even worse this year. January 3? People have gone back to work after the hangover from the holiday season. They’re not going to go to a caucus meeting after a long day at work. Who will show up? The Democratic faithful.
The Republican field is extremely hard to handicap. Unless I’m mistaken, this is the first time since 1964 that we didn’t know going into the primaries who the nominee would be. You have four serious contenders, each of which can lay claim to part of the Republican coalition. “Family values” voters love Huckabee and despise the other three even though McCain has tried to court them for years. “Fiscal conservatives” love Romney, can tolerate McCain and Giuliani but don’t like Huckabee. “Hawks” love Guiliani and McCain and may not trust Romney or Huckabee. In the end, I think the “values” voters are the dominant of the group and propel Huckabee to victory, unless skeletons start to rattle in his closet.
Democrats seem like they have a guy that they fall in love with but wind up marrying the “safe” panderer. We loved RFK and Hart and Dean and McCarthy and Teddy but the establishment Dem always took the brass ring. This time I think things turn out differently. A third place finish in Iowa blows the last bit of inevitability off Hillary. Obama pulls a shocker in New Hampshire. All of a sudden Biden, Dodd, and Richardson drop out and most of their supporters go to Obama. A couple of Obama wins and the game is over. This time, we might get the candidate that we love, not the one that is the “safe” choice. Chris Matthews has a great expression: “Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line.” This time, we might nominate the passionate one and pass on the panderer which would spell certain defeat if the Republicans had a guy that could please their entire coalition. Obama over Huckabee in November.
Maybe it’s because I live above the Mason-Dixon line, but do you really know people who are uncomfortable voting for a woman or a black to be President, even if they are qualified? It’s 2007, right?
- Honesty
HRC is not on the ropes but her machine is starting to act like it. That can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy. An essay Obama wrote in Kindergarten?!? I’m impressed by a kid who knows all their letters in Kindergarten! Warnings about what the Pubs will do with his admissions of past drug use? Gimmee a break. These are exactly the machinations that do not play well with these early voters. Obama is beginning to find his stride and beginning to sound more Presidential. And the Clinton machine’s attacks elevate him as the other one to vote for and further marginalize Edwards and the others. Obama has somewhat neutralized some of HRC’s “experience” claim by reminding people that First Lady is not part of the Cabinet. It begins to look like it will be HRC who pulls a Dean - inevitiable until the primaries actually begin, then poof. If Obama wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and S Carolina … a real possibility, them HRC is suddenly desperate, and her machine in desperation mode begins to fray.
My question though:
Of the key either way states in the general, how would each match-up go? On each side who will likely do better in those states (e.g. Ohio and Florida)? To me, as a Dem, I see the likability of Huckabee as the big threat.
Here’s the problem with that, and why I believe Obama has an excellent chance. All those polls he’s leading in are of “likely caucus/primary voters” which means that they’re already screening out most of the first-timers and young voters that Obama allegedly needs to win, and even then, he’s still tied or ahead of Clinton. If Obama can boost turnout among those people even a little bit over what the pollsters project, he could turn a close win into a comfortable one.
Perhaps. Most of my friends are liberal, and I don’t think other acquaintances would admit it. I’ve heard “N----r” only once in the rural area where I live, that over an automobile accident. But ten people beat up some Jews a couple of days ago in NY who responded “Happy Chanukah” to “Merry Christmas.”
Given the last elections, I believe the Democrats must depend upon cross over votes. I would love to be wrong.
Edwards turned in a strong debate performance today. And now I’m wondering whether he could grab some undecideds and weakly-committeds and sneak past both Hillary and Obama in Iowa.
The Republican party is in crisis right now: the libertarian/religious conservative split seems to be widening, and I think the libs will have as hard a time supporting Huckabee as the religious conservatives will have supporting Giuliani or Romney. The Democratic party is not in crisis: they’re just digging their way out of a decade-long malaise, and they’re feeling awful good about themselves.
Whoever wins the Dem nomination will have strong, solid Dem support. Whoever wins the Pub nomination will bear scathing attacks from the Republicans who don’t feel represented.
The Republican candidate will lose the general election. The disenfranchised Republicans will use that loss as proof that the party was hijacked by the other guys, and will take over the party.
If Giuliani or Romney wins the nomination (and loses the general election), that means the religious conservatives will surge forward inside the Republican party. If Huckabee does, that means the libertarians will make that same surge.
Thus spake Lefthandthustra.
Daniel
Why is the Republican party fielding so many good candidates? With Iraq, tiredness of Bush, and the economy, they’re almost certain to lose.
While you may be right about Obama’s support coming from people who historically haven’t voted in the past, I disagree with your conclusion about whether or not they’ll do so this time. I think the reason so many people don’t vote is because they simply don’t think their one, individual vote will matter anyway. The media and Party Leaders tell us who the winner will be before the voting booths even open, so why bother, right?
But that’s what I think Obama has been successful in overcoming this time. He makes people realize that even their one little vote can come together with tens of thousands of others and really make a difference. It has worked for him in fundraising (cite) and I think it will work for him in vote-getting.
Well this is one white chick who will be voting for Obama, so Chris Rock can go blow it out his chad hole. 
To all those who are calling it for Obama, all I have to say is, from your keyboards to Og’s ears!
Edwards / Richardson to win over Huckabee / McCain.
Dems - Edwards gets second in Iowa, NH, and wins in SC, and Michigan (labor vote). Early Obama love doesn’t actually turn into votes, and Hillary is just too thorny. Edwards starts to look like a real (and yes, safe) choice going forward. I see Richardson in the #2 spot no matter who is #1.
Reps - Guliani flops outside of the urban areas (family values, abortion, he had a gay roommate). Romney gets the (Gore/Kerry) treatment (he’s wooden, he’s a flip-flopper) and the Mormon taint just won’t wash off. The Republicans voted for a religious light-weight before, they can certainly do it again. McCain handles the tough guy role at #2 (ala Cheney).
I’m in the Pacific Northwest, and I know some of these people.
Right now, I’m pulling for O-bama O-eight.
Looking around at my friends and neighbors in rural Ohio, I’d say there’s more sexism than racism.
And I think it would have to be a hell of a Republican candidate to take Ohio right now. It might take a Reagan, and there won’t be a Reagan on the ballot.
Personally, I think Bill Richardson is probably the best qualified candidate in the running on either side, so I’m definitely hoping he gets a VP nomination.
I’m so baffled by the changes to the primaries that I can’t make any comment about them.
Any of them people who moved to the Pacific Northwest in the '70s and '80s hoping to found an all-white utopia? (I remember that story on 60 Minutes.)
Absolutely. Clinton is attacked as “shrill”, as a harpy, as a bitch, etc., and people barely blink an eye. Can you imagine if racially equivalent terms were applied to Obama?
Daniel
Time to start printing your O-hio for O-bama bumper stickers.
O-bama! O-hio! O-eight!