Handicap the GOP nomination race

Great Debates
61

Seemed time to bump this thread, in light of the Huckabee surge. Recent polls have him leading in Iowa and South Carolina and moving into second place in Florida and nationally (the Rasmussen daily tracker has him ahead nationally; I’m skeptical), although he’s still way back in New Hampshire, where Romney still has a comfortable lead.

If the Huckster can survive the resurrection of Wayne Dumond’s release as a political issue, it looks like the evangelicals may have found their candidate.

So what does this mean for the GOP primaries? Here’s the key dates again:

Jan. 3 - Iowa*
Jan. 8 - NH
Jan. 15 - MI
Jan. 19 - NV*, SC
Jan. 29 - FL
Feb. 5 - Super Tuesday

*Caucus.

I don’t see anyone doing well on Super Tuesday unless they’ve won somewhere by then.

If Huckabee wins Iowa, and does so strongly enough that he overtakes Romney in NH, that’s probably it for Romney, and the nomination devolves into Huck v. Rudy. Rudy wins MI and NV, Huck wins SC, and FL is up for grabs.

If Huck wins Iowa but Romney wins NH, then Rudy’s the big loser, IMHO. Because then Romney overcomes Giuliani’s slight leads in MI and NV (if he still has them; MI and NV haven’t seen much recent polling), Huck still wins SC, and goes into FL with momentum and with Thompson’s supporters having switched to his camp. With Rudy having not won anywhere else, he loses FL too. Super Tuesday becomes Huck v. Mitt.

If I were Rudy’s campaign guru, I’d pick one of MI and NV (probably NV, given Romney’s Michigan connection) to try to get an early win in. He’s clearly given up on Iowa (for good reason), and whether or not he’s thrown in the towel in NH, he’s continuing to fade there, and waiting for Florida is starting to look like a bad gamble, as he’s threatened both by Romney’s steady ascent there, and Huck’s more rapid climb. His lead’s not so strong there that it can survive the boost to Mitt’s or Huck’s numbers that a string of primary wins will provide.

But if Huck wins Iowa and SC, Mitt wins NH and MI, and Rudy wins NV and FL, then it would get interesting.

62

So, if Huckabee gets the nomination, does this mean Chuck Norris will be the VP candidate? :smiley:

63

Nah, Huck will put him in charge of counterterrorist operations. Osama, your days are numbered! :wink:

64

One of the things the Rasmussen daily tracking poll (link @61) shows is a rather precipitous drop in Rudy’s national support since Nov. 30, from 27% down to 17-18%, depending on which day you look at.

I’m somewhat skeptical about the Rasmussen daily tracker; it all too often shows things that aren’t actually there. For instance, did Edwards’ support really go from 13% nationally on 11/30 to 17% on 12/4? I doubt it. But a 9-10% drop is unlikely to be entirely random noise. I don’t know whether it’s about Judy Nathan getting to use the NYPD as her valet service while Rudy was still married to Donna Hanover, or whether it was his performance in the YouTube debate at the end of November, or what.

How much of that drop’s real, and why it’s happening, is a big open question.

65

In that case, I hope we finally get a chance to buy some flying motorcycles!

-Joe, recalling the end of Delta Force 2, Electric Boogaloo

66

I don’t know, they seem to be the only ones that picked up on it in their polling. I use RealClearPolitics - RealClearPolitics Poll Averages to get a quick aggregate poll and Rudy still has the lead at 23.6% to the surging Huckabee at 16.6%.

Looking at the graph on this page, it does show that Huckabee appears to be taking the poll votes mainly from Rudy. So looking at that, maybe you are correct.

Jim

67

I’m not allowed to vote for obama in the primaries since I currently reside in the socialist state of New York (it’s a long story) … but if he wins the primary, he has my vote.

As far as the republican race? I’m thinking Romney will win. Although Giuliani is a strong leader, he has that lisp thing going on which drives me up a wall. :stuck_out_tongue:

68

Where’s John Mace? You still want to make that bet that Giuliani gets more delegates than Huckabee?

69

Even a week ago, RCP would have had him at about 28%; now their average shows him at 23.6%. His RCP average hasn’t been below 25% at any time during the first 11 months of 2007.

Rasmussen’s an outlier, IMHO - they’ve polled Rudy a few points lower than the RCP average pretty much all year - and they’ve likely overstated the degree of Rudy’s drop. But the polls overall are agreeing on the existence of the drop.

I could certainly be wrong, but intuitively I’m having a hard time seeing Rudy and Huck competing for many of the same primary voters. Rudy’s going to do better with more secular Republicans, and Pubbies who want us to continue to be at least as assertive/aggressive abroad as we are now. Huck’s going to do better with religious Pubbies, and those who are more focused on domestic (especially cultural and moral) issues.

With 5 candidates in double digits, and Ron Paul at around 5%, I see more of a multi-way kaleidoscope of shifting preferences. Giuliani might’ve lost some voters to Romney, McCain, and Thompson, and they in turn might have lost some voters to Huck and Paul. But my guess is, not the same voters.

70

I don’t know, I have heard many interviews with Right Wingers (but not Fundies that generally despise Rudy) that don’t really like Rudy, but think he is the best candidate to resolve the war and be tough on terrorist. Maybe with Huckabee rising from a minor candidate to a major one, this segment is defecting to him. It seems that Thompson was mostly speculation and few actually like or trust him. Huckabee is personable, affable and damn it, a freaking pro-life creationist, or I would actually consider him seriously.

Jim

71

Even with the Wayne Dumond history?

72

Giuliani had a lot of weak support from “values voters” who saw him as the best chance of defeating Hillary. But now that Huckabee’s becoming viable, those voters are flocking to him.

73

Soon as I say that, ARG releases a new Nevada poll - click on the link. Romney and Huck up, with Romney leading; Rudy down, Fred way down.

All the changes implied by that poll are credible, but it’s ARG. Their polls aren’t junk the way Zogby’s Web-based polls are, but it’s not unusual for them to show results that nobody else gets within 10% of. (For instance, ARG had Edwards at 30% in SC in late May; nobody else ever had him at over 21% there, and even that was exceptional.) So I’m a little leery of placing too much faith in their results.

74

Sorry, I am clueless, as I would never vote for Huckabee, I am somewhat ignorant of his bio.

I also dislike him as he is far from a fiscal conservative and more than willing to spend and waste money on his pet issues. What I like about him, is strangely enough he seems to want to do something to stop Global Warming. Not even my man Rudy is saying anything positive on this issue.

In the end, I will dismiss any creationist from consideration. So, I guess for me, the rest of his record is meaningless.

Jim

75

In case you later decide it’s of interest to you, click on the link:

Does he want to do something mandatory about global warming? I mean, Sam Stone’s been saying for years that Bush is addressing global warming, but only in the sense of voluntary targets and the like.

76

I don’t know, I mainly know him from several NPR interviews. The press has been pretty easy on him as he was a minor candidate until the last few weeks.

77

You have to watch every word the Republicans say about those targets. When they talk of “reducing carbon intensity”, they define “intensity” as being C02 per $ of GDP. An absurd measure from any scientific perspective.

The nomination was Giuliani’s to lose. With nookiegate, I think he’s lost it. Thompson never had it. McCain’s best shot was years ago. Now I see it as Romney vs Huckabee and the evangelicals will put Huckabee over the top.

78

He has over a month to recover and now Huckabee’s skeletons are due to start shaking out. Too soon for me to buy your prediction.

Jim

79

I agree that it’s too soon to count Rudy out. This race is exceedingly volatile for a number of different reasons, not the least of which is that none of them looks that great close up.

However, I still say he’s got to win before Florida. If he lets Romney and/or Huck roll up all the early states, he’ll be in bad shape in FL too.

80

Agreed. I also know that is Rudy loses, I will end up voting Dem. I might vote Dem even if Rudy wins, but the rest of the leading Repubs I cannot vote for.

I wonder for how many moderates that will prove true.