Let us do our thing and fail, then you can laugh at us. We still believe that ACA is THE issue of this election and likely the next one, and that the issue favors us.
That’s already happened. 
Pity those of us tragically constrained to live in the reality-based community.
Then we lose and you’re happy. Sleep well, the Senate is safe. Never mind those skewed polls.
*That *again? 
So Jolly won by around 2%.
For the life of me, I haven’t been able to figure out why the press has been spinning this election as some kind of harbinger of things to come in November. From how I see it, it’s an off-season special election in a hugely gerrymandered R district. The fact that the Dem came so close to clinching it is actually pretty impressive; it does show, however, that the Dem off-year voter turnout machine could still use a little work.
She was a candidate who won statewide office, ran for governor, and outraised Jolly. In a district Obama won in 2012.
I agree it’s not a harbinger, but it was a race Democrats should have won. If they don’t win Obama districts where they outraise their opponents in 2014, they’ll lose seats in the House.
And yes, the turnout machine doesn’t work when Obama isn’t on top of the ticket. That’s the effect of a celebrity candidate. There are a lot of his voters who will never vote again until someone else inspires them. Since most Democratic Presidential candidates aren’t inspiring, that means the “coalition of the ascendant” will be the “coalition of the couch potatoes” come 2016.
By Nichols’ own math, Jolly was still outspent even if you count outside funding. Nichols seems to be claiming "No fair! Sink didn’t have the proper advantages she was entitled to
Actually, my bad, that made the spending just about even, except that Sink controlled more of her money than Jolly did, and Jolly was none too happy with at least one of the commercials run on his behalf.
No, that’s not what he’s saying.
Own money:
Jolly-$1.3 million
Sink-$2.6 million
Outside money:
Jolly-$5 million
Sink-$3.7 million
Totals-
Jolly-$6.3 million
Sink-$6.3 million
Looks fair to me, with a slight advantage to Sink for having control over a higher percentage.
And there’s the “structural advantage” again. We heard about that in 2010.
Sure, due to the number of seats they are defending and the six-year itch, Democrats should be expected to lose ground. But the thorough ass-kicking they received in 2010 was more than structural, and if it happens again, that’s a big deal.
What Shodan said has plenty of merit: A whole crapload of Democrats never believe they were rejected by the voters. There’s always some excuse. Geez, at least cling to the idea that they weren’t far left enough. A blatantly liberal national campaign might do worse than what Democrats currently do, but they won’t know until they try one.
What the race shows is that the Democrats simply have to aggressively debunk the “$716 Billion Taken From Medicare For Obamacare” lie. It’s complete and total bullshit but it is effective if you don’t fight back. Bill Clinton had the masterful comeback, saying Paul Ryan had stones to complain about something and turn around and do the same thing himself. But save for Bill Clinton, Democrats are clueless about how to debunk the Republican lies about the ACA.
How is it gerrymandered? It’s almost got even registrations between Republicans and Democrats. Geographically it comprises basically the entire Pinellas peninsula and Pinellas county outside of St. Petersburg so it seems to make geographic “sense” and follows compactness norms. Considering districts aren’t supposed to have more than around 700,000 not sure how you’d really change the lines around that area. Pinellas county sans St. Petersburg has almost a million people in it so there is no way to include the whole county. Anyway, the press has made every special election since at least the year 2000 a harbinger of things to come in the next general, and while I didn’t notice it being so universal before then I’ve seen similar noise during basically every special election held in my lifetime.
The simple answer is most special elections are boring and uninteresting to most people, but by linking them with the next general the press can cover it and generate interest, which is what the media likes to do.
In spite of the pre-election predictions, a majority of the few voters who actually turned out to vote, voted for Jolly rather than for Sink. Both campaigns, both political parties (local and national), and numerous other organizations have spent dozens of dollars to win this election but elections still come down to voter turnout.
Considering what was spent on these campaigns, most of the potential voters weren’t impressed enough with either campaign to take the time to vote.
Maybe if Obama had campaigned for Sink, the margin would have been much greater?
If it’s bullshit, then how come Medicare Advantage benefits are being reduced?
You are wrong that it is total bullshit, because $716 billion has in fact been taken from Medicare. Democrats’ defense is that it’s from providers only and doesn’t reduce benefits. I’d say the public can judge whether their benefits have been cut or not. But disputing the number is just wrong. ACA is paid for with the biggest chunk coming out of future Medicare spending. This is indisputable.
Secondly, it’s awfully rich to continue to whine about Republican lies about ACA when the most consequential lies, lies that have actually affected real people, have all been on the Democratic side. The Democratic side’s credibility on the issue is gone.