Handicapping the 3/11/14 special election for Fla. 13th HoR District

Special election 3/11/14, to fill the seat of Bill Young ®, who died last October. The candidates are Alex Sink (D) (who ran for governor in 2010) and David Jolly ® (an attorney who was Young’s general counsel).

So far, Sink has the lead in early voting, but not by much.

Both sides/parties have been saying a lot of things PolitiFact rates as False, Mostly False or Half True. Here’s their analysis of both campaigns’ attack ads.

The district has been Republican for the past 30 years (coinciding with when my mother moved to Piniellas county). The fact that Sink is close–let alone leading–is a triumph in itself. If I had to pick, I’d say she wins, but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.

It’s always dangerous to read special elections as a harbinger for November. But this one may be a harbinger of the dominant campaign strategies. Jolly is desperate to tie Sink with Obamacare, and Sink is ginning up the “war on women” rhetoric.

As an aside, IMO the Politifact scoring is pretty useless for analyzing these type of elections. Both sides are speaking to their base, neither of which really care if something is true or false, but rather if it elicits an effective reaction.

If memory serves, this is the election in which Bowzer of Sha Na Na is campaigning for the Democrat, and Bob Barker for the Republican. Hopefully the two of them won’t get into a fistfight.

Or a singing contest.

It may well be time for a bit of pendulum swing in Florida. The overall R legislature and governor are doing better than in NC, but a lot of folks are negative toward the governor and partial to former R Crist… We’ll see, but I think Sink has a good chance.

Now the national GOP is distancing itself from (and dumping on) Jolly, fearing he’ll lose.

This one is too ambiguous to be predictive. If Jolly wins, so what, the district has been GOP forever. If Sink wins, so what, it’s a swing district despite a Republican being perched there for 20 years and she has more money and name recognition.

Not nearly as important as say, a Republican winning Ed Kennedy’s old seat.:slight_smile:

I’m working on a new game. The viewpoint is from the end zone of a football field. There’s a placekicker attempting field goals. At first, he’s at the 40 and kicks about every 5 seconds, but as the game goes on, he kicks faster and moves in closer. Your objective is to move the goal posts so that he always misses. I’m calling it “adaher”. Available soon at the Android app store nearest you!*

*After all, only dirty liberals use iPhones.

All I’ve done is say the race doesn’t matter. What are you going to say if Jolly wins? Nothing, I predict.

I’m going to say that the District has been reliably GOP for a while and, despite her money and name recognition, that Alex Sink is not a particularly charismatic candidate able to overcome the natural disadvantage.

Scott Brown had the good fortune to run against the worst candidate imaginable. Now he’s reduced to shopping for a state to make another go of it.

Republicans have already milked the ACA vote cow dry and she won’t give any more. The high point was in 2010 after millions of dollars were spent to frighten the public and misinform them about the ACA. Now that people are signing up for it and the apocalypse hasn’t happened, that gun now shoots blanks. Maybe they could go back to ginning up the vote by putting anti gay marriage proposals on the ballot- or maybe that weapon now fires the other way. I predict that the Republican sinks and they won’t be too jolly.

Doesn’t matter. What matters is that the House seat might (or might not) change parties.

Well yeah, that matters. But it doesn’t really tell us much about 2014 one way or the other unless someone gets a good thrashing. But PPP shows the race close.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/ppp-poll-alex-sink-48-david-jolly45-lucas-overby-6/2169464

48-45 Sink

This. Learn, adaher.

It’s predictive if it goes Democratic and doesn’t mean anything if Republicans win.

True, because the 13th has after all been a Pub safe-seat for more than 40 years; a Pub win is just what one would expect.

However, it is a district that went to Obama in 2012 by a small margin. It’s a swing district, and you’ve got a well funded candidate with the party united behind her. Those strengths significantly diminish the predictive power of a tight win.

Now if Sink kicks his ass, okay. But a close race in a district that was close between Obama and Romney is just another close race in a swing district.

I agree in principle, but keep in mind that Republicans gerrymandered the piss out of many states so that they would win a lot of districts by small margins and let Democrats win a few districts by big margins. That works- until the voters turn on you and those little wins turn into little losses. So if the Dems can pick up a seat that was gerrymandered for the Republicans, it might bode well in November.

Or, either way, it’s the result of local issues and personalities.

He’s far behind Shaheen in the polls, but is still the leading GOP prospect in NH. Don’t expect that to last past the first couple of debates, though, when his intrinsic shallowness cannot withstand the scrutiny.

You might think they would have learned from the 2012 results, but the likes of **adaher **don’t recognize that election even happened, much less why. “Fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again,” as the saying goes.