The district has been Republican for the past 30 years (coinciding with when my mother moved to Piniellas county). The fact that Sink is close–let alone leading–is a triumph in itself. If I had to pick, I’d say she wins, but I wouldn’t want to bet on it.
It’s always dangerous to read special elections as a harbinger for November. But this one may be a harbinger of the dominant campaign strategies. Jolly is desperate to tie Sink with Obamacare, and Sink is ginning up the “war on women” rhetoric.
As an aside, IMO the Politifact scoring is pretty useless for analyzing these type of elections. Both sides are speaking to their base, neither of which really care if something is true or false, but rather if it elicits an effective reaction.