OH-12 Special Election 8/7

This one’s to fill GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi’s vacant seat. Special election August 7, primaries May 8.

It’s been in GOP hands since 1983, and has a R+7 Cook PVI. But the Cook Political Report just moved this race from Lean R to Tossup. :smiley:

Wikipedia, Ballotpedia links to this special election.

ETA: Wikipedia on the 12th District itself. It’s got a curvy shape taking in territory to the north and east of Columbus.

What is the point of having a special election in August for a seat that expires on January 1. Especially since it is an election year so nothing will happen in Congress after Labor Day.

I’m a political junkie, so I’d probably vote in a special election in August. But, I wouldn’t be super motivated unless control of the House of Representatives was possible.

How does that even work when the primary for the general election is also on May 8th? Do they just have an election for the same two people again in November?

Hell if I know. And you’d think that for the special, they could have a shorter interval between primary and election.

But it’s important that people have Congressional representation. And I don’t think “we’re not really expecting Congress to do anything then” is a decent counterargument. If the Dems retake Congress, I bet the GOP gets a sudden burst of energy during the lame-duck session.

Assuming the same people win the primaries, yes.

Ohio plans elections in quarterly intervals. So each year there can be four election days. When a special - or local or whatever - election is needed it happens on one of those planned days.

The governor and legislature can override this, of course, but I didn’t see it happen the entire time I was active up there.

And the ones that have to happen on other dates are often even sillier.

The special election to replace Stephanie Tubbs Jones was held in mid-November, after her successor was elected to a full term. Marcia Fudge was unopposed and turnout was something like 2%.

If I am reading the information correctly, there are two separate primaries in the 12th district; one is to fill the rest of the current term, and one is for the one that starts in 2019. (According to the 20th Amendment, all Congressional terms start on January 3 at noon.) Yes, a lot of candidates are running in both of the primaries.

TPM has a good piece on the race, mostly focusing on the GOP primary.

A WaPo piece on the OH-12 special election:

I still don’t really have much hope that O’Connor will win, and the polling has been consistently on Balderson’s side, but Republicans are worried enough that they just sent Mike Pence to Newark, and now they’ve announced that Trump will be holding a rally in Delaware County this weekend.

I initially thought Delaware County was kind of a weird place for Trump to hold an event (he won it in 2016 but it shifted toward the Democrats) but that’s where Melanie Leneghan (the GOP primary loser) is from. She has not yet (AFAIK) accepted the results of the primary as legitimate, and is suing with a crazy allegation that officials in Muskingum County (where Balderson lives) literally stuffed the ballot boxes in his favor. So this could be an attempt to try to drown out her sore loser act.

As of right now my guess would be something like Balderson by 5, which is big enough the GOP will strut around and claim it’s a massive victory over what all the fake news expected would be a dead heat, while ignoring what an ominous sign it is for November.

PredictIt market: Which party will win 2018 House of Rep special election in Ohio’s 12th district?

About 2:1 for Balderson ®. Fairly stable as well.

Monmouth poll: not so stable.

In the past month, Balderson®’s lead over O’Connor(D) among all eligible voters has gone from +10 to +1.

In a low-turnout model (only the most reliable voters show up), Balderson’s lead has dropped from +15 to +5.

And in the ‘Dem surge’ model, Balderson’s gone from +7 to -1.

Yeah, that Monmouth poll dropped right after I posted.

O’Connor has surged by about ten cents on PredictIt in the last couple hours and seems to have settled there. It’s still 3:2 Balderson, but it is definitely tightening.

Commentary from TPM:

So: generic R v. generic D in a R+7 district. The generic R is still the favorite, but it’s looking to be close.

I’m lovin’ it. :slight_smile:

“The race essentially pits a generic Democrat against a generic Republican” has to be one of the most Ohio things I’ve ever read.

Here in Ohio’s 12th congressional district, I’m privileged to be the target of sleazy campaign ads and distribes from both sides.

Added fun note: a third-party candidate, who like the Democrat is named O’Connor is reportedly trying to get on the November ballot under the Libertarian line. This must be a coincidence and not an effort to confuse voters by having two O’Connors on the ballot. :dubious:

Perfect timing for moron in chief to pick a fight with Lebron first championship in 80 years James.

I thought I’d check in on the PredictIt market on late election eve. I was surprised to find that O’Connor has the slimmest of leads.

As of right this second…
DEM.OH12.2018 52¢
GOP.OH12.2018 49¢

Worth watching throughout the day tomorrow and poised for big swings depending on what part of the district first reports votes.

Troy Balderson really has an inspiring, issues-oriented closing message: “We don’t want someone from Franklin County representing us.” (Franklin County has 32% of the electorate, more than any other county. He also crowed that he “beat Delaware County” in the primary, which is another 20-some percent.)