Well it’s finally here. All the long months of debate, gaffes, PACs and robo-calls… all come down to this. So this is the thread to post your election day experiences, and I guess it will probably be where people follow the news reports are the states are called for this candidate or that one.
Let the games begin!!!
crosses fingers
Good luck Obama. You’re gonna need it 
My wife is the most apolitical person on the planet. Therefore, I’m glad that she has a night class tomorrow. I’ll be watching election returns all night – not sure on what channel, I only have the bare-bones choices, so it will likely be PBS. I am sorely tempted to make a bowl of popcorn, but if Mitt wins this I suspect I will literally be sick, so will have to wait and see.
Trust me, he won’t.
I’m freaking out, and already starting to plan ahead for when I can legitimately start drinking. I think now would be too soon. But if I start at lunchtime, I might pass out before the results come in. I need to strategize here.
I voted already (huzzah for early voting in Ohio) but am worried that there will be shenanigans at the polls tomorrow for those who haven’t. I hope not. But I guess we’ll see.
I’m not so convinced. The polls don’t take into account the various voter suppression tactics. Remember, in most of the battleground states, the Republicans control the voting process.
Nate Silver’s model actually does include consideration of voter suppression.
Dixville Notch results are in…
5 - 5 tie!
That does not portend well for the nation 
They’re not famous for always being right. They’re just famous for going first.
OK, thanks for that tip, I did find one blog entry about voter ID laws. But does his model also include the effects of reducing early voting, extra-long lines at the polls, etc.?
I’d like to add that five Dixville Notch voters are registered independents who split 3 - 2 for Obama.
Can a Romney hope to win while losing independents by 20 points?
Last time Obama won there by 15-6, but that was the first time a Democrat won there since 1968. I suppose 10 of the Obama voters left the village since then. (Wikipedia says the population was recorded as 12 in the 2010 election.)
Not sure. But of course he can’t account for every possibility.
Nate Silver’s popular vote prediction is right on, then.
Here’s a question about Nate’s model: he said that the President was a favorite reelection for the simple reason that he’s the favorite in Ohio. If he loses Ohio, does the rest of the model come tumbling down? I assume not, because the simulations run MUST include SOME where he lost Ohio, but I’m curious.
When did he say that? I’m pretty sure he’s never said anything close to that.
If Ohio goes R, then Obama still has 187 paths to victory. Romney has 65 in that scenario. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
And he can only really account for stuff that there’s data on. The effect of line length seems like it would be harder to measure since it’s a local phenomenon, not necessarily recorded, and possibly only exists for part of the day. Voter ID laws are consistent through the state and aren’t likely to vary throughout the day.
In Hart’s Location, it’s 23 for Obama, 9 for Romney, and 2 for Gary Johnson.
ETA: But if you unskew it based on the primary (13 Republicans, 10 Democrats), Romney totally did better than that.