In polls of 5 states with early voting, Barack Obama is walloping John McCain to the tune of an average lead of 23 points. In every one of the 5 states surveyed, Obama is massively out performing his statewide polls. He is at +34 in both Indiana and North Carolina. This is an asskicking, my friends. This is going to be an even bigger landslide than we thought.
Let’s not count our chickens here. Early voting is just that … early. I hope to Buddha you’re right, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
You may find this OP quoted in several gloating pit threads.
Don’t get cocky. This election will be largely decided on which side gets out its supporters better. The Republicans have access to the same data as the Democrats and can be counted on to redouble their efforts. We must not let up our efforts.
Hold off on the confetti and noisemakers there, Dio. For one thing, early voting may draw disproportionately among Obama supporters (committed and informed enough to know about early voting, etc.). For another, the sun will rise on November 5th over a few hundred million people who still have to get along with one another.
I’d like the tone of political discourse in this country to get a lot more civil, and I’m trying to live up to that, myself. Or maybe you can lay the groundwork for someday when a Republican wins and you can feel smug that you weren’t a sore winner when you had the chance. Either way, I just can’t see any good that’s served by gloating.
That is almost certainly oversampling “nontraditional” voters, the real question is the degree. There are a couple levels of sampling error in those numbers, and it’s still a poll, not a result.
Still heartening, though. I am hoping that a lot of those folks are Obama activists getting their voting out of the way so that they can GOTV as election day nears. That is my personal plan.
I’m pleased to see it, but I’d be careful about reading too much into it.
In Georgia, the counties that are getting the heaviest early voting turnout are Fulton and DeKalb, the two most urban counties in Atlanta. That makes sense, because people who live in heavily populated areas would be the ones most concerned about avoiding long lines on voting day. (If I lived in a rural or suburban county, I probably wouldn’t be as worried about election-day lines.)
So if urban voters are the ones voting early, it’s not surprising that Obama would have a lead. Democrats have always done better than Republicans in urban areas.
I’m sure I speak for Dio when I assure you that you are free to gloat about Obama’s victory to your heart’s content, wherever and whenever you choose. We’re very inclusive.
I was going to post something on this.
Obviously, chickens cannot be counted pre-hatching. It’s interesting to speculate on what this could mean, though. According to the link, this isn’t traditionally a weird Democrat-heavy voting sample. If I’m reading the numbers right it’s a reasonably significant sample. Unless you ascribe a huge self-selection bias to the numbers, for which there is no historical precedent, it could be an indication of a crushing landslide in November, which I admit I would never have anticipated. Two months ago I thought Obama could win, but I would not have seen him winning South Carolina, Missouri, and such.
As it is, it’s difficult to construct a scenario where McCain wins; the polls are ugly from a GOP perspective. The thing is that one poll doesn’t mean much but ALL of them means a lot. McCain’s polling numbers are now almost universally negative - his nationwide numbers are bad, Obama states are getting stronger, swing states are moving Obama, even some should-be-slam-dunk-red-states are, if still long shots for Obama, getting a little purple (Georgia? Holy moly.) Scores and scores of polls, polls on top of polls, are saying McCain’s campaign is crashing.
McCain needs an absolutely epic win tonight, I’m talking the greatest victory in the history of Presidential debates. Nothing else will save him. Anyone thinks he has that in him, raise a hand. Huh… I don’t see any hands up.
I think Dio is just high on life right now–he just became a dad again for the 3rd time. Let him crow. There’s little enough joy in the world as it is.
If Obama wins, I will be happy because I think America can finally turn a page (several pages) and we can move forward–we wouldn’t be able to do that with Hillary (whom I voted for). For me, it’s not about crushing McCain; it’s about doing what is best for our future. If my political opponents can look at it that way instead of “nyah, nyah-sucks to be Rep” (which very few here intend)–we’d all be better off. Just sayin’.
You may find this OP quoted in several gloating pit threads.
You may note than when I cited it in this thread I said “small sample size, self selecting highly partisan voters and all that don’t take it to the bank.”
Nah - his pride will keep him from letting the strategists make him say something stupid during the debate - to the tune of Wright, Ayers, Terrorist…that will certainly sink him. If he can keep a level head he may do Ok…Obama has out played him on almost every front, what does he have?
The format the debate is seated right next to eachother. McCain’s not going to go there.
As for the OP, I was thinking something similar, if we go into this with a large enough lead…I may not sweat as much on Nov. 4th. No really sweating now, but still.
Obviously, I don’t think Obama’s actually going to win the election by those kinds of margins, but the fact that he appears to be significantly exceeding expectations is really good sign and a harbinger of a possible electoral landslide. Clearly, he can’t get Reagan numbers in the elctoral vote, but I think he can get Clinton numbers. I think we’re seeing a sign that Obama might win decisively, and not in another late night nailbiter.
An ABC news story says
You have a tendency to repeat yourself.
I won’t rest easy until Obama is sworn in and safe in the WH. I hope his Secret Service detail is first rate. There are too many whackos out there and too much fomentation of hatred. Still, the early numbers are encouraging.
That may be true, but those are also the places where there would be concern about Obama supporters not showing up on election day or being blocked somehow. Locking in these less-likely Obama voters is a very good thing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they made a big effort to get this group to vote early. That would also have the benefit of providing more resources to GOTV on election day.
This is why I am working to help people vote early. I anticipate problems that day.
Same here…it’s funny, the yard signs in my area are really starting to come out. Lot’s of Obama signs!
There is an odd shift though in the mainstream - I don’t know if it’s a sense or more of a noticable phenomenon, but the air definitely feels like it’s a dem year!