While I still believe that Obama’s election is virtually assured now, I wonder if releasing polls that show early voting heavily favoring him, might actually work against him by angering his opponents enough to turn out and vote when they might have been less motivated earlier.
Of course, just the opposite might happen and those early vote figures could actually suppress an opposition vote.
You’ll have to forgive me; I’m only 2-for-6 in picking winning presidential candidates, and I’m not used to the feeling of giddiness.
Obama’s poll numbers look strong overall, no real doubt about that one. I don’t know what, if anything, McCain could actually do at tonight’s debate that could turn it around. Go even more negative with Bill Ayers? Very old news, and negativity has boomeranged on them badly in the past few weeks anyway. He might enjoy a slight bump just by showing up but it’s just a debate, and way late in the campaign to boot.
Most of all, I think the economy will keep working in Obama’s favor. There’s a marked lack of optimistic news on the economic front. Given Rove/Shrub’s horrendous levels of unpopularity, I think the most pressing issue is how well any Republicans will come out in this.
I think that most of us are now wondering how well ANY of us are going to come out of this. (this being the grim economic forecast). That helps Obama for sure, but …
It drives the McCain camp into a frenzy and there is an amazing turnout for McCain who wins the election; or, it drives the McCain camp into stark depression and they all stay home, making it a landslide; and, people who would vote for Obama think he’s going to win, so stay home, only to have McCain win the election; or, people who would vote for Obama are totally psyched and rush to the polls, making it a landslide.
The data definitely supports my thesis, no question.
This will probably draw ire from both sides, but my question is, how do we know we can trust that these early votes will count? I’ve automatically assumed that most, if not all, of the early votes would be thrown out for some technicality, thrown away, er, sorry, “misplaced” and in the end, all those early votes siphon off the votes from election day and bingo, the side who didn’t have so many of their people voting early wins. It’s reason #286 why I don’t think Obama has a chance and, and it pains me to say it, I agree wholeheartedly with Rand Rover, who’ll be right there in Pit along with Bricker and the other right-wingers, gloating like mad.
Most definitely! I didn’t mean to imply the political fallout is even remotely the most important thing about the economic meltdown. I just thought it merited a mention for the temporary election mania.*
*Which will be over SOON, oh please, it’s already lasted what seems like frickin’ forever.
Why would you assume that? At least where I’m familar with early voting (the past few years in Colorado) there was never the slightest whisper of issues with those votes.
I think we can all assume some very ungracious gloating if McPalin do pull it out. And we can expect righteous indignation re the liberal gloating(because we are not “right” and therefore should not celebrate our shameful victory or some such nonsense) from these McPalin supporters if Obama should win. :rolleyes: Therefore, I say go ahead and gloat–on Nov. 5.
I have no doubt that any and all avenues will be explored, no matter how ludicrous, by the GOP in order to not count/discount votes. The challenges will be wrapped up in red, white and blue with a chaser of sanctity. Such are their tactics of old. It’s only ok to do so when it’s the GOP challenging and obstructing. If the Dems try it–the outraged screams of disingenuous Republican virtue will be heard across the land. Truly this is how that party sees itself: the last bastion of Truth and Right in an America gone to hell. Blech.
Someone came to my house the other day and gave me a little piece of paper with information on registering to vote early for Obama. If that effort happened on a large scale, it could explain why early voters are favoring Obama so strongly.
I’d be slightly concerned from the early leads that people might think the election is pretty much assured, and so they don’t bother to go out and vote.
Why wouldn’t I assume that? The GOP win-at-any-cost machine stole the last two presidential elections. They got away with it, and have had 8 years to smirk, perfect and think up new ways to screw over voters. Early voting seems perfectly made for them to easily get rid of a lot of pesky votes. I trust early voting about as much as I trust your average right-winger, which is, not at all. That’s damned cynical, and I dearly hope I’m wrong and those votes will count, but they’ve shown what they’re willing to do, and the country has shown that we’re willing to let them get away with whatever they want to do, so forgive me for being cynical. I can’t help it.
I got three emails from the Obama campaign in the last week or so urging me to vote early by absentee ballot. Hmmm… I have the sneaking suspicion that these high poll numbers might be related.
Of course, the opposite effect from the one you’re all fearing might happen - undecideds might see those early poll numbers and decide to vote Obama so they can be “on the winning team” in their own minds, as it were.
I see it all the time with footie - how many people were suddenly ManU supporters when they were big winners, for ex.?
My thoughts exactly. My son and I will be volunteering again very soon.
John King of CNN was using his ultracool “magic map” of the Electoral College last night after the debate to explain what a tall order it will be for McCain to win - not impossible, just very difficult. McCain would have to win every one of the tossup states, and pull away a state now leaning to Obama, in order to claim the White House.
Derspite the fact that this has a political topic, there is no debate, here, just (not so) humble opinions regarding treating the election as a horse race.
Why wouldn’t I assume that? The GOP win-at-any-cost machine stole the last two presidential elections. They got away with it, and have had 8 years to smirk, perfect and think up new ways to screw over voters. Early voting seems perfectly made for them to easily get rid of a lot of pesky votes. I trust early voting about as much as I trust your average right-winger, which is, not at all. That’s damned cynical, and I dearly hope I’m wrong and those votes will count, but they’ve shown what they’re willing to do, and the country has shown that we’re willing to let them get away with whatever they want to do, so forgive me for being cynical. I can’t help it.