It seems that Obama is doing very with people who have already voted.Cite. But I don’t get why Obama supporters are more likely to vote early than McCain supporters. Is there anything to suggest that they are, or do you think it’s just that all the polls underestimated Obama’s support to begin with? Will McCain catch up some on election day?
Wild guess, but I’d say college students are much more likely to vote for Obama and are less likely to be home on November 4th, as they are away at university. As such, rather than drive home that day, they will vote early.
I believe the assumption is that those most likely to take advantage of early voting would be those that are eager to vote for their candidate and that Obama has a more zealous following this year than does McCain.
I think it is the demographics as well. The older, McCain leaning voters, actually like the experience of going to the polls on election day. They have nothing else to do on a Tuesday in November and they can see their friends.
Probably those most passionate in their following of a candidate are the Obama supporters. They know that they will stay with him. They know they will not change their minds. They probably have voted early in order that nothing will happen to cause them to miss voting. I don’t believe the McCain voters are quite so zealous. They are loyal, but not so passionate.
I was surprised that even Georgia had Obama leading in the early voting, to be sure not by much, but leading none-the-less.
Another reason may be that people who do shift-work or who are unable to take time off on election day (hourly-paid workers, people with inflexible schedules) tend to be people who are more likely to vote Democratic. Also, I know a lot of people who are voting early in order to be available to volunteer on Election Day, which also points to the enthusiasm factor.
My guess is that a huge part of it is that Obama leads significantly among voters aged 18-34. Most people in the 22-34 age bracket work full-time, meaning that it’s much more convenient for them to vote early on a Saturday (or whatever day they have off) than it is to wait in line at the polls before or after work on a Tuesday.
Nitpick: older voters aren’t leaning McCain. They have a smaller lead for Obama, but they still prefer him.
And, of course, the Obama campaign is pushing early voting very, very, strongly.
News flash: Obama is doing very well with everybody. What you are seeing is just a prequel to what Election Day will be like. (knock wood)
I’ll bet even more will go for Obama when they find out that McCain (via his spokesman) sneered at Obama’s going to visit his sick grandma. I hope lots of grandkids are sending their net savvy grandparents that video, especially in Florida.
This. Has McCain been giving speeches telling people to vote early? Obama certainly has.
I can’t speak to the demographics where you are, but feel free to stop in here and take a look at the lines for early voting. Easily 7 out of 10 people standing in these 2-hours-and-up long lines are over 50.
Maybe Obama voters are more likely than McCain voters to want to beat the rush, potentially to avoid Election Day problems such as insanely long lines at the polls, ballot shortages, voting machine problems, etc. which they perceive disproportionately affected Democratic voters the last couple of Presidential elections. If something gets screwed up in early voting, at least they will have the time to take another crack at it.
This is another big point that figures into it. We want people to check if they’re screwed before Election Day. I had someone call me yesterday saying that they went to vote early and they found out that the husband got purged (the wife is still a British citizen) from the records.
Yeah, I volunteered at the Obama campaign in Toledo last week and got a little speech by the organizers there about how important early voting is, because they expect to have a lot of problems on November 4.
Naturally, we don’t have early voting in Michigan, which makes me a little worried because apparently 98% of eligible voters are registered in the state. I can easily imagine a total clusterfuck at the polls if anywhere near that percentage actually shows up. Fortunately, one of my professors gave a little speech at the beginning of class yesterday about how if we have to choose between standing in line to vote and coming to class, we should stand in line.
That means absolutely nothing. I applied early to college because I knew where I wanted to go, and if I got in early that meant I didn’t have to do any more work for college applications at all. It wasn’t remotely an issue of not procrastinating or being diligent, it was simply the easiest path.
I got a phone call from the Obama folks that explained how to vote early and who to contact locally. Very useful information no matter who you plan to vote for. I looked up the site (county gov.) and was very impressed with the options.
The call may have been targeting Dem. votes but I am not on any Dem. rolls that I know of. Maybe they call everyone and the Republicans hang up when they hear “Obama” and then miss the useful info?
I remember the ballot shortages at the Demcratic Primary. Some people wound up signing a blank piece of paper that some lady dug out of her purse.