… Because the higher the general turnout, the more it negates the enthusiasm and energy advantage Obama supporters have.
I hadn’t seen this theory espoused before (though I could be mistaken). Thoughts?
That’s…interesting. I submit that the higher the turnout, the more the enthusiasm of Obama supporters is shown. High turnout is because of Obama, not thwarting him.
The analysis may be that everyone expects turnout to be high because of Obama, so if it’s really high then it’s because of Republicans that voted to counter the expected high Obama turnout. I’m not sure how to distinguish between high and really high though. Also, it sounds like just a way for Republicans not to give up hope if turnout numbers are announced before the result.
One thought I had re turnout in general–I wonder if some people may not vote in IN or MO because they are traveling to Chicago for Obama’s victory party. Wouldn’t that be a kick in the ass.
In general, Democrats are less likely to vote, but there’s more of them.
So statistically speaking, if there’s a higher turnout than previous years (per capita), it’s usually going to be favorable to the Democratic candidate.
I don’t know of any particular math that would lead the other direction. Maybe they’re saying that Republicans are so fearful of losing that they’re showing up in droves, but that doesn’t seem likely given that (having inferior numbers), that’s pretty much always been true. They have always had to get out in droves or they’d lose.
Wrong - sounds like overanalysis to me. While Democrats might consider it a risk that enthusiasm for Obama will lead to greater turnout for McCain also, I think that’s probably not going to happen. The level of enthusiasm for Obama appears very, very high.