Out of the grey swing states I give Romney Fl, OH, NC
I give Obama VA, PA, NH, WI, IA,CO, NV
Which gives Obama the win at 285-253
That is me, as a democrat, playing it a little pessismistic by giving Republicans the two biggest prizes in FL and OH. I’m least certain about VA,CO,and NV, but my projection still gives Obama enough cushion to lose any of one of those. Romney’s path to 270 is looking pretty difficult from my perspective, what say you?
I went with I went WI, OH, PA and NH for Obama, not because it will happen that way, just for the novelty. Although that would be a win for Romney (in a round about way).
It’s all coming down to Florida again for me. The ones I’m not firm about are FL, VA, OH, and NV, and if Obama wins FL then the other three don’t matter (of course if he wins FL he will also probably carry VA but that’s not important.) He could also carry any two of the other three and win.
I also gave Obama NH, PA, and WI, because if he doesn’t carry those then he won’t have a chance in the rest of the swing states.
Basing all of my choices on Nate Silver’s current odds (because that guy knows his shit), I give Obama NV, CO, IA, VA, WI, OH, PA, and NH. Romney gets FL and NC.
Being a pessimist, I think folks might be underestimating the effects of voter-suppression tactics in Pennsylvania and Florida. Combine that with a less enthusiastic Democratic base this time around, and I think Romney takes those states. So:
Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia
(265)
Romney: Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina
(273)
Despicable as they are, I actually don’t think that the voter suppression will make that much of a difference. I suspect that a large majority of the people without ID’s wouldn’t vote anyway. It might affect a really borderline state like Florida, but I don’t think it will tip Pennsylvania over the edge.