With the rotating clown show the Republicans are putting on this election cycle (Is it Romney? Perry? Gingrich? Santorum? Bachman? Cain? Romney again? Whee! Nobody knows!), and the fact that each one has seemed to try to out-crazy or out-stupid everyone else, sometimes spectacularly so, what are the chances that Obama waltzes back into the White House in November? The Republican party just seems to be spinning more and more off-kilter, fracturing and becoming more bizarrely out of touch every day. Threatening to defund the NSF and EPA altogether? Swearing to pass strict anti-porn laws? Drifting further and further right, to the point that even most Republicans are crying out for a return to centrism?
Will the Republicans really unite under one of these clowns? Will they really take the election?
If, if the economy keeps improving and the Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot, Obama might cruise into a second term which I though extremely unlikely just 6 months ago.
Santorum will have no appeal to the middle and left of course and least Romney had a good chance to grab a lot of the independents. But I think they have trashed Romney too much now.
Smartest thing Obama can do would be to prolong the primary battles as long as he can (by not campaigning against a specific GOP opponent until they choose one) and letting Romney and anti-Romney alike move further and further to their right. If he can get them to issue statements opposing basic reproductive rights for women, or aligning themselves with the most doctrinaire pro-Catholic policy statements, longer and longer into the election cycle, he won’t have to do much else, just smile and wave his way to victory.
I wasn’t offering to bet anyone anything. I was just offering an opinion on odds. But let’s say I wanted to take you up on your wager. Exactly what are you offering to bet on?
If you’re offering me 20:1 Internets that Obama wins more than 40 states, I’ll take that bet.
There’s no reason for money to change hands. But I’ll note that Intrade gives Obama only a 60.5% chance of re-election, and I think that’s 3.5 percentage points high.
Nah, the best thing to do is to attack Romney. He’s the Republican establishment’s man and will probably be nominated (74.5% chance at Intrade, which I think is low). If by chance Romney loses and a more extreme candidate wins the crown, well that only helps Obama’s odds.
If Romney ties this up by early April, all this drama will be forgotten by the Republican base in November anyway.
Considering that the people who most ought to be on his side are just sort of warmish about him, and the people against him hate his guts…gotta be tough.
If he attacks Romney, mostly on Romney’s most vulnerable issue (a 1%-er who’s out of touch with the commmon man), and then Santorum, who’s obviously not a 1%-er (he’s their lapdog), faces him, Obama looks bad. Lay low for now.
IMO right now Obama’s chances of any victory in November are not much better than 50-50. I base that on all the uncertainties. What if the economy slows down again? What if the idiots in Congress spark yet another crisis? Will the Rs coalesce around their candidate or just stay home? Will there be a third party run on the right? How well will the negative ads that are sure to come stick to Obama? Will there be an enthusiam gap on the left?
Also IMO if things keep going as they are now, by September we’ll be comparing thiselection to Clinton vs. Dole. But it is not September yet. Obama is much better positioned than the leading Republican nominees. Even Romney is not sure of the nomination yet, and of the 4 he’s the most electable. Can any of the 4 remaining candidates win the nomination, then do what it takes to win the general election? I’d rate the Republicans chances right now at no better than 40%, subject to major revision hourly until the fall.
People like me are only just now getting past their deep deep disappointment in Obama and thats only because we are fucking amazed at how horrible the Republican candidates are and because Obama 2012 has been a lot more like Obama 2008 than Obama 2009/2010/2011. Of course he will jerk back to the right if he wins reelection but we are like Charlie Brown and the Democratic party is Lucy. I went from “I might stay home” last year (after Obama extended tax cuts for the rich) to “I’m gonna vote but that’s it” after the debt limit debate and the Tea Party downgrade to “I gotta send in some money” after Bachman, then Perry, then Cain then Gingrich then Santorum, then Gingrich again then Santorum again.
Obama can’t lose unless somebody beats him. Romney can’t even close the deal against the phenomenal non-juggernaut that is Rick Santorum. And in the general he’s coming up against the best campaign organizations in world history.
It won’t be a walk in the park, but Obama will make it look like one.
Don’t underestimate the Republican ability to rally behind their candidate, once they pick one. There is a huge campaign machine and tons of money waiting in the wings, only lacking a direction. Both parties will launch massive campaigns to convince us who to hate, what to fear and who is to blame for our problems. In the end, the water will be so muddy that most voters will be voting based on either party lines or a vague feeling of unease about the other guy.
I predict that Obama’s message of hope, if he can pull that off again, will draw enough votes to give him the win by a thin magin over the Republican message of “it’s all Obama’s fault.”