This.
I don’t think going negative will work too well for Obama, although it’ll be somewhat unavoidable given what he’s sure to be up against.
And this just in…
“Only 26% of Americans think Republicans are taking the country in the right direction.”
How much money is bet on the election at Intrade? For such a market to be a good predictor, the amount bet needs to be large. How does Intrade’s volume compare with that of London bookies?
There was a webpage that showed odds in the Presidential nominations and elections for each of a dozen different sportsbooks, but I can’t find it anymore. 
Obama’s chances seem to have increased considerably just in the past few weeks, as judged by odds at British sportsbooks. Ladbrokes currently quotes 1.53, 2.62, 51 (all “for 1”) for Dem, GOP, Independent respectively. These correspond to probabilities of 65.4%, 38.2%, 2.0%. Odds at Paddy Power are 8/15, 11/8, 50/1, or 65.2%, 42.1%, 2.0%. After subtracting effective “vigorish”, these British markets are seen to estimate Democrat victory at 61-63%
I think the OP is over-stating the ridiculousness of the Republican performance and candidates so far. There was a really long pre-primary campaign period that didn’t involve real state-specific campaigning so much as it did debates, really frequent debates. The price of entry for candidates before the primaries was low, and a bunch of people got involved. Most of them were not serious contenders for the nomination. Some look like clowns to some Democrats, but all had some appeal to a segment of Republicans. The two candidates who had to be taken seriously were Gingrich and Romney.
Gingrich has a poisonous history with the Republican party from his time in Congress. He’s an intelligent guy with some serious flaws, but those flaws are not what did him in. His own party does not want him to be the candidate due to his behavior during his time as speaker of the house.
Romney is the preferred candidate of the party, for the same old reason: it’s his turn. Voters have not warmed up to him at all, and his candidacy has a chance of ending in one of his several “home” states: Michigan. Real Clear Politics has a composite Michigan poll that shows Santorum ahead of Romney by 9 per cent. If Romney loses Michigan, I don’t know what he or the party will do. If Santorum is the nominee, Obama will slaughter him. If Romney loses Michigan and still becomes the nominee, Obama will beat him fairly easily if current economic trends continue. MHO.
Intrade currently has 119,700 shares outstanding on Obama to win, at a current price of $5.99 per share. That’s $717,003
As an aside, it would be very foolish to offer odds as extreme as 20-1, given where the established betting markets are standing. On the one hand, there’s no reason for anyone to turn down those odds, since they could very easily arbitrage them against the established markets, and end up in a win-win situation. On the other hand, if you’re confident enough in those odds to be offering them, then you should jump at the chance of getting in on the action in the established markets.
Whether or not Obama is elected to a second term.
I think he’s likely to, I just think your odds are way off.
If I could win a million dollars betting on Newt or Frothy Lube, I’d like to think I wouldn’t do it. I’d really like to.
What is the definition of “cruises into his second term”?
I don’t see any of the Republicans having much of a chance - then again, who saw Carter having much of a chance against Ford in February, 1976?
It could also come down to two things:
One, will the Republicans nominate somebody on the first ballot? (My guess: yes, and it will be Romney.)
Two, if it is Romney, and he doesn’t choose Santorum as his running mate, would Santorum decide to run as an independent? (Without this, the Republicans who aren’t particularly happy with either Obama or Romney would “put party first” and vote for Romney, but if there is anything close to a “tea party choice”, the Republican vote would split.)
(I believe that if, somehow, Santorum gets the nomination, enough Republicans, given a choice between him and Obama, would consider Obama “the lesser of two evils.”)
Landslide-and-coattails.
Personally, I can’t see how any of the current crop of candidates can even win the nomination. It feels like the most likely outcome is for them to still be bickering over who their candidate is come November.
There were 26 debates durign the Democratic primaries 26!. We were fucking DROWNING in great Democratic candidates in 2008, there were about a half dozen of them that could have won that election. AND we were basically down to two candidates after South Carolina.
In 2012, the republican put up the a host of candidates, none of whom are particularly strong. I suppose its the field might be sstronger in 2012 but not if the Republicans are still under the influence of the crazies.
Are you kidding? Ford looked like a weak candidate in February 1976, for whatever Dem ran against him.
Right. The economy was not in good shape, and people were still pissed over Nixon.
The surprise in Carter is that he came from obscurity in a very crowded Democratic primary field. According to Wikipedia, 16 Democratic candidates entered the race, and 14 were still in the race by the time of the Iowa caucus. (Of course, by this point in 1976, we’d only had the Iowa caucus, and were still a week-plus away from New Hampshire.)
To be clear: I think there is, at the moment, about a 5% chance that Obama will lose the POTUS election. I’m not saying he’ll get 95% of the vote, just that his chance of losing is about 5%.
My internet betting limit is 50 quatloos for this type of thing.
I’m willing to wager my Greek bonds that Obama loses. Anyone interested? 
I can’t believe that Santorum will get the nomination, but if he does, Obama cruises. If it’s Romney, it depends on the economy. Although there are glimmers of hope in the economy, Europe is in a world of trouble, and if there is an economic downturn there, it is likely to pull us downward, too.
I wouldn’t bet too much on the economy, as there is too much uncertainty.
Odds are strong, I’d say 3-2 in Obama’s favor.
[ul]
[li]The country has gotten some buyer’s remorse over the Republican/Tea Party midterm wins. After campaigning on “Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!,” all we’ve seen is anti-abortion and anti-contraception(?!) laws being pursued. I think Congress’ historic low approval rating is a result of this bait & switch, combined with its systemic obstructionist behavior.[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li]As it ever was, this is a battle for the swing states, and that means appealing to political moderates. But this extended primary season has seen the candidates chasing after the far-right voter, making it that much harder to walk back fringe-y comments to appeal to the middle.[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li]This is the first Tea Party era Presidential election. I think this factor will upsets a lot of GOP maxims of old, such as “It’s his turn,” and “Republicans fall in line.” I’m curious to see how it will manifest, but I expect the far-right voters will reject Romney outright. Nominating a third party would be suicide, but maybe they’ll stay home from the polls in dissatisfaction.[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li]The precarious economy and unemployment is an undeniable liability for Obama.[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li]The European financial clusterfuck and it’s effects on our economy could either sink any incumbent’s chances (or) scare the electorate from changing horses to an untested prospect when things are so dire.[/li][/ul]