Well, that’s the problem. The crazies have decided they don’t wanna play the mainstream GOP’s practical-center-right game no more. Nothing they really want ever actually gets done. Abortion remains legal, the federal budget keeps growing, the federal government never gets pared down to pre-New-Deal size . . . they’ve had enough. If they can’t run the GOP themselves, they’re gone.
But, the success of American movement conservatism since 1964 has been based on all factions of the right sticking together and ignoring their differences. “No enemies to the right!” Or the 11th Commandment, “Though shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican.” Looks like that might not be possible any more. The cracks in the movement are getting too big to paper over. And, without the center-right-grownup vote and the wingnut-whackaloon vote both, the GOP can’t win nuttin’. And if the crazies run the party, the Main Street Republicans will finally get disgusted with it and stay home; or, vice-versa.
This is a lot like what happened when all those young more-or-lefties of the “New Politics” took over the Democratic Party in the early 1970s. A necessary precondition, perhaps, of the Reagan Revolution, and certainly a source of Reagan Democrats. It took the party decades to recover electorally from the damage.
Now Clinton was a big surprise win. As the Primary season was gearing up, Bush the Elder’s approval rating was crazy high, I think in the 80s. Clinton was a nobody from a crapsack state that he (may of) helped to improve to a less crapsack state. That he not only won the nomination but beat Bush could not have been predicted by many before the Iowa Caucus in 1992.
Chances of a big Obama win? I think maybe 10%. If the economy keeps getting better at its recent strong rate (say an average of .15% reduction in unemployment per month), if the stock markets stay strong, if Europe doesn’t collapse and China remains stable, if weather and natural disasters don’t shock the market, if the Republicans keep pursuing their culture-war objectives instead of focusing on the economy, a weak Republican candidate gets the nomination, and no other wildly unpredictable events take place, I think Obama wins in a landslide (330 electoral votes or more). I don’t think it’s likely that all of the above events will happen, though, and I’d put the chances of an Obama victory at 55 to 60%. I think that Intrade and the British betting markets are slightly overvaluing Obama’s chances because everything’s going his way right now. If things change, he’ll face a tough fight and if lots of things change, he’ll lose.
Well, since we both agree that he’s likely to win, we can’t really bet for bragging rights. It’s cool. I think you’re overconfident. I think he’s going to win, too, but I’d gladly take those odds that he won’t. I don’t think that sort of bet works without something real at stake, though.
The major Democratic names did not run because Bush had won a war and was percieved as unbeatable. Bush lost because the economy sank into a shithole. Clinton got lucky. We could have done worse.
We’re well past the Iowa caucus now, and we’re looking at Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich, all of whom expected to beat the shit out of Obama should they be nominated.
I’m not the only one that misses the point of this comparison.
If the odds are still 20:1, I’d take it as almost a 5% yield investment. Every day that goes by without a catastrophe, especially without one that can be blamed on Obama, reduces the term and increases the value of the bet. Right now we’re at a little less than 9 months. We could keep a daily tab on the annualized ROI, you’ll see.
To be fair, I’ll toss out what I’d consider to be a landslide win for Obama: being the first presidential candidate since 1988 to get 400+ electoral votes.
As much as I would like to see things continue getting better for the President, I’m pretty confident there will be some major bumps in the road. No politician has a streak of good news that lasts forever.
I can imagine several things that could happen to sour the mood of the electorate without even trying. The economic crisis in Greece could make things turn ugly for everyone very quickly. And with both Syria and Iran putting everyone in the Mideast on edge, it isn’t hard imagining something there getting seriously unpleasant.
And there’s always the unexpected domestic crisis/natural disaster.
He had a pretty long run of fucking horrible news and I know there is no reason why things have to balance out but, frankly, he’s due for a bit of good news.
Seriously, it was like the assassination of Osama bin laden was the turning point. That’s when the American public started to turn on the Republicans. After years of Obama bending over backwards and spreadign his cheeks, the American public finally understood that the republicans were more intent on hurting Obama than helping America. Now people see congressional comflict as the result of Republican obstinacy and obstructionism. Negative sentiment for congress has been translated into negative sentiment for the Republican congress.
As an outsider I cannot understand why any person seriously interested in politics would like Mitt Romney. The guy is wealthy which takes him far away from Joe Plumber - no commonality of interest. He looks like he goes through a beautician’s salon before appearing in public - much too slick. Really, he looks and sounds like man who wants the big job and says whatever it will take.
Gingrich by comparison is rougher and greyer which makes him more real IMHO. Plus he is intelligent and doesn’t claim to see Russia from his house… I can understand he isn’t perfect.
Still, Obama stands head and shoulders above these guys. He has oratorical skills and a keen intellect. I think you are lucky to have him as your President.
That one’s pretty much impossible. Just messed with one of those interactive maps, gave Obama every state he won in 2008 and added Arizona, Missouri, and West Virginia, and ended up on 385.
Intrade and Sportsbooks both put GOP victory as nearly a 40% chance. Seems amazing, but such predictions are considered reliable and anyone who disagrees has an excellent money-making opportunity.
I seriously considered betting McCain in the 2008 election. :smack: Fortunately I came to my senses in time, perhaps as a result of Sarah Palin’s selection.
Don’t Joe and Mitt both think taxes on the rich are too high?
Gingrich is intelligent, true, but to admit he “isn’t perfect” is bizarre understatement. He would be, by far, the most blatantly corrupt and arrogant President ever.
I threw in Montana. Obama lost it by less than 2.5% last time. Still only gets you to 388.
I then tried to find a 400 vote landslide in the other direction. If the Democrats win only HI, WA, OR, CA, IL, DC, MD, DE, NY, CT, RI, MA, and VT, I get 370 EVs for the Republicans. Even if the Dems lose OR and VT, it’s still only 380. You’d have to flip California to get over 400.
A lot of this is due to the fact that 6-months is still a long way away and its possible that something totally unforeseen could happen would shift the election one way or another. As a result the probability is attenuated towards 50%. If the election was only 2 months away I think the results would be much more in favor of Obama.
actually, we got jobs, just the opposite direction of what people thought was promised…cuts in state employment. Which for a lot of people meant that they were suddenly competing in a lousy job market with recently let go, or looking for a new job because my salary got cut, government employees, just as things were starting to look up.
Let’s not forget that the Republicans folded on the payroll tax extension. They seem to have gotten the message that the American people hate their guts. I think it is too late for them, but we’ll see. The best thing they can do this summer is to compromise and look more rational. I doubt it will happen.
What does that imply for Obama’s/Romney’s chances this year?