Give Obama the same states he won in 2008 and give the Republican candidate the same states McCain won in 2008. If Obama wins the same states he won in 2008 then in 2012 he will have 358 electoral votes to the Republican candidate’s 180 electoral votes. Let’s go after Texas in 2012. Now it’s 396/142. Let’s go after Arizona. A lot has changed, politically, demographically, in Arizona. Now’s it’s 407/131. We can’t go after Utah. It’s still 407/131. What about the South? Obama won Virginia and North Carolina in 2008 and the Democratic National Convention will be held in North Carolina. Let’s go after West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Now it’s 431/131. That’s a 300 electoral vote lead! While we’re at it let’s go after Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Now it’s 455/83. It should be 538/0, but we’ll leave North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, and Utah, and Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and, last but not least, Alaska to the Republican candidate. Final score: 455/83.
I think it’s extremely unlikely Obama is going to win most of the states you’re talking about. Maybe he can get North Carolina and Virginia again. I don’t know if polls from today would be useful, but I think there’s almost no chance he wins any of these other states. The evidence right now says this is going to be a close election like the last three, not a 455-electoral-vote landslide.
Texas? Arizona? Obama lost by double digits in texas and by 8 points in Arizona last time. It would take a friggin’ miracle for him to take either of those two states.
Yeah, a few Posters brought up Texas in this Thread focusing on the South. My personal version of reality isn’t quite ready to accept that yet.
Arizona has a sizable Mormon population. I think Obama will lose by a greater margin this time than he did last time (assuming against Romney).
Winning some States he lost last time is certainly possible, but Kozmik is really taking it into wet dream territory. Missouri is a Red-leaning Swing State that he lost last time. The OP puts five Red States ahead of Missouri on the wish list. I’d put Missouri first, maybe Tennessee second. I like the idea of Louisiana going Blue, but as I mentioned in the other Thread I don’t think New Orleans has been sufficiently repatriated to its pre-Katrina population in order to outweigh the Red of the rest of the State.
I like Obama’s chances overall, but he ain’t pulling off any kind of a landslide.
I don’t think Obama will pick up any states. However, he still has a better than 50% chance of winning since it’s an uphill battle for his opponent. Even if you assume the GOP will pick up North Carolina and Iowa and Indiana, it still leaves PA, VA, FL, OH, and NV in play and the GOP needs to pick up nearly all of them to win. It’ll be hard to do. I don’t think Wisconsin or Michigan will be in play because of the anti-union stuff that’s been going on there, Illinois is Obama’s home territory, and the everything Northeast of PA will be an automatic pickup for Obama, unless possibly NH if Romney is the candidate and manages to run a centrist campaign.
Obama got 52.9% of the popular vote. He won five states (plus one electoral vote in Nebraska) with less than 52.9%, so call those states (VA, OH, NC, FL, IN) the real swing states, with a total of 87 electoral votes. Give them to the Republicans and the margin is now 278-260. Shift any of the other close states (C0, PA or the combination of NH+IA) and the Republicans win.
By my count, a shift of fewer than 750,000 votes out of more than 131 million – or about .5% – in key states would be enough to give the Republicans the presidency.
Hmmm, I was under the impression that NC was not going to be in play this time due to voter supression, but on research, it turns out that the Governor was able to veto the voter supression effort on the part of the GOP. So I guess it will be a swing state after all.
Obama lost Tennessee majorly in '08 (by 15 points) and the state has been consistently trending more and more Republican over the last 15 years or so. Obama even did slightly worse in TN than John Kerry did. He has zero chance there.
The number-two after Missouri, if we’re being realistic, is Montana. Third would be Georgia, but that’s seriously pushing it. Incidentally, giving him those three states plus everything he won in '08 produces 388 electoral votes. That’s his ceiling, in my estimation.
I don’t see all of your five going to Romney. The ill-advised attack on unions backfired on the GOP in Ohio, energizing the Democrats and I really can’t conceive of Romney carrying the state when he barely beat a weak GOP field in the primary. Indiana is probably a lost cause, they’re the backward child of the Great Lakes states and will almost certainly go to Romney. Florida may be hard for Romney to grab, given the Republicans’ attempts to kill Medicare and their hamfisted pandering to the anti-immigrant crowd. I can see North Carolina as being quite competitive and a chance to turn red. Virginia may be slowly becoming reliably blue but may well go for Romney. If Ohio and Florida hold firm for Obama, Romney hasn’t a prayer. If only one flips for him, then it will be close but no cigar. Romney needs them both but I just don’t see it.
Assume a strong economy running into the election:
Arizona’s Mormon population runs about 5%, most of whom likely vote GOP in any case. A non-issue. McCain had the big advantage last time of, you know, being that state’s senator. Meanwhile 18% of Arizona’s registered voters are Hispanic. And many more are eligible to vote but haven’t registered.
The social conservatives likely won’t come out in force for Romney.
So let’s see - can 8% be made up by loss of native son advantage, lack of enthusiasm from the party’s religious right base, no huge advantage with swing voters over a failing economy, and a mobilized Hispanic population? Arizona may be in play.
Texas is a longer shot. You’d need a lot of the RR sitting on their hands and more of the Hispanic voters coming out than usually do to make up double digits.
Montana was within 2.5% last time. Missouri within 0.1%! Those are clearly in play. Georgia was over 5%. That’s a lot of ground to make up, but Romney appeals to many voters there almost as little as Obama does. Not impossible. The others require a population landslide that seems unlikely.
Yeah but 750,000 votes teh other way in the right states would make it a landslide. Which is why I support letting DC residents choose their state of residence for purposes of voting. Manage it just right and the 600,000 DC residents become the most important voting bloc in the nation.
What does it even mean to “go after” a state? Are you seriously suggesting that if Obama tried a little harder, he could get Texas to vote for a Democrat for the first time in 36 years?
This is all like saying that I could break a four minute mile if I just stuck to it.
Wait, is this thread about Obama’s Red State Strategy, or Kozmik’s? That is, do we have any reason to think the Obama campaign is going to pursue a red-state strategy? (A thing I would strongly advise, BTW – not in hopes of winning any red state’s e-votes, but in hopes of swinging some of its Congressional races Demward this year).
Well it is about Kozmik’s suggestion to Team Obama. And the more nuanced response is:
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Some so-called “Red states” may be vulnerable and some so-called “Blue states” may be, depending on the specifics of the cycle, the candidates, and of the demographics within the states. (My point.)
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Some states may have only a small chance of swinging to Obama’s column but some spending in a few tactically important districts in those states will maximize that chance with relatively little cost, while forcing resources expended to defend it, and possibly reap other benefits such as the Congressional ones that you point out.
That was the case for Indiana in 2008.
Indiana is a bit of a special case. He’s not going to get thousands of volunteers to drive from Illinois to Texas to help get out the vote in 2012.
I doubt Obama will be able to add any states to his total and may in fact lose some he carried in '08. I would have to agree with the analysis offered in both of the posts quoted above. OH and FL are likely to go for Obama. IN, maybe. VA and NC will be harder this time around.
go after: to turn a red state into a blue state
bienville suggests to go after Missouri first and Tennessee second.
The Obama campaign might want to go after Arizona more than Texas. If Obama goes after Texas more than he goes after Arizona, he risks losing Arizona. What about Missouri and Tennessee? Obama should, likewise, go after Missouri more than he goes after Tennessee because there is a greater change of winning Missouri. And West Virginia? West Virginia is going to be in play in 2012 so Obama should go after West Virginia, but not more than Obama goes after Missouri or goes after Arizona.
Red State Strategy #1
Arizona and Texas and West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee and Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Red State Strategy #2
Arizona and Texas and West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee and Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Red State Strategy #3
Arizona and Texas and West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee and Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Red State Strategy #4
Arizona and Texas and West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee and Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
Red State Strategy #5
Arizona and Texas and West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee and Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
It’s, Obama.
That’s a fair point, but as someone that worked in Indiana in '08 for the campaign, a lot of Hoosiers really liked the fact that they weren’t just written off like a lot of other past campaigns. I don’t know if Indiana has a base of volunteers like, say, Michigan does, but it’s certainly something to build off of.
Does anyone else have Sousa running through their heads now?