I’m probably being way too optimistic about Florida. It’s been favoring Romney for a while but some of the recent polls show a bit of a swing towards Obama so I’m just gonna cherry pick the hell out of those and go for broke.
Concur. I expect to hear some hot air about the geographically divided nation, even though all of OH FL VA CO WI IA will be by less than 5%. I would like another mystery state to surprise us with at least a close loss for Obama like Montana did in 2008.
I sincerely hope I’m wrong, I really do. But I just have this gut feeling that all the conservative mistrust of polls really is producing a skewed story (self-fulfilling prophecy).
I also think that Ohio SoS will do everything in his power to make sure republicans win it. Obama barely won there in 2008 compared to his national numbers.
Obama won Ohio by about 4.5 points, as opposed to 7.1 nationally. So not by as much, but not really “barely.” North Carolina, that was barely.
I’m going with the safe 303-235 prediction.
I agree with Johnathan that giving FL to Obama without giving him VA is hard to swallow. States are not independent events; if things look bad for Romney in Florida, he’s probably DOA in Virginia and Ohio, too (and it wouldn’t matter because he’s lose anyway.) Basically, it’s a series of must wins for Romney as you go east to west; he must win Florida, and then he must win Virginia (and SC, but SC is guaranteed if VA goes his way) and then he must win Ohio, and then he must win another swing state. If he loses any of those steps he’s lost.