Okay Folks! Election Prediction Thread!

Great Debates
1

I meant to start this last night, but let’s see if we can’t get this in before the results come in. There are loads of maps to check out so use what you need.

Here’s my prediction:

Obama:
Kerry States
ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA, MN, WI, IL, MI, CA, OR, WA, HI
Henceforth you guys can just say Kerry States for reference.

Plus the following in order of how likely I think they are to go for Obama:
IA, VA, NV, NC, OH, FL, MO, IN, GA, ND and MT.

Popular vote prediction: Obama +8 (53 - 44 - 2)

That’s a risky pick but seeing is all I have to lose is bragging rights, I don’t mind. I feel that my picks

Never been good at it, but hey, why not give it a shot?

2

In my office pool I have Obama winning with 320 electoral votes. We are doing a Price is Right style closest to the number without going over. Of course, no money is on the line, only smug satisfaction.

I predict Obama gets at least the Kerry states plus OH, VA, NM, CO, NV, and NC. I would not be surprised by FL, MO, GA, and possibly IN.

3

I put Obama at 338 EVs without NC, which I don’t think he’ll get. He will get FL, OH, and PA.

4

I’ve already staked out the maximalist 406 EV for Obama prediction elsewhere, so I might as well do it here as well. (Generated by going to the realclearpolitics map and flipping all the toss-up states to Obama. Yes, including Arizona.)

5

I don’t have much faith in Ohio or NC, personally. Ohio screwed me last election. I’m pessimistically saying Ohio goes McCain.

6

I think OH is going McCain actually, and PA worries me also (I don’t care what the polls say). FL is going Obama as well as NC and I have hope for IN.

7

If you want to get the math right - this site will let you click on states to assign them and give you the EV numbers.

I’ll say…

Obama 333, McCain 205. In my dreams TX, GA, and IA flip and Obama breaks 400, but I’ll stick with 333 for my official prediction.

8

I predict a landslide. At least 400 electoral votes.

I don’t trust the polls. The surveys are conducted in the same manner as previous elections, yet they can’t account for who is actually voting. Given the huge urgency the Obama campaign represents for the young voters who will turn out en masse, as well as the hopelessness for Republican voters who may feel there vote will just be a waste of time.

And there is the reverse Bradley effect, exemplified by Denny Crane last night on Boston Legal. Very real to me.

9

I hope I’m wrong, but I think voter suppression + historic young-voter failure + potential voting machine shenanigans + rural racism means a much closer total than the polls would indicate.

Of the battlegroundish states, I think

McCain: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, South Dakota, Georgia

Obama: Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Total EV’s:

Obama: 282
McCain: 256

…with Obama winning between 50 and 51% of the popular vote.

10

Well, if Penn State is any indication, they’re coming out. Over 1000 students were lined up by 7am!

11

I hope you’re right! Is that an unusual turnout for Penn State?

(Also, an addition to my above prediction: Nevada should be in the “Obama” category.)

12

Similar thread

I’ll amend my predictions there to:

Obama 353
McCain 185
Popular vote: 51.8% Obama, 46.7% McCain, 1.5% other

Obama takes WA, OR, CA, NV, HI, CO, NM, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, OH, VA, NC, FL, PA, DC, MD, DE, NJ, NY, VT, NH, ME, MA, RI, CT
McCain takes ID, UT, AZ, AK, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, WV, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC

13

Obama: Kerry States + VA, OH, IA, CO, NM, NV - 311 EV

McCain: Who cares?

14

Obama 309
McCain 229

15

I don’t know, I just saw the video right before I posted.

I have no prediction other than…
LANDSLIDE!!

16

I think that Obama can win MO, provided the city voters can tolerate the long lines and problems. I’m guessing that MO will be called for Obama some time after 2:00 A.M. —at the earliest— by a razor-thin margin.

17

I posted this in another thread already:

375 Obama, 163 McCain. Popular vote 57 Obama, 41 McCain.

18

A thread I started on the same thing but no one wanted to play. :frowning:

Also - a bigger turnout in absolute number than ever before and maybe by percentage of elgible voters as well. Maybe more votes for Obama than ever received by any candidate before as well.

19

Oh, forgot to post my prediction. 325 to 213 for Obama. No predictions on the popular vote.

20

Obama will win nicely. The GOP appears to have thrown McCain to the wolves and given it up. Both parties do this once ina while if they see they have small chance of winning, they let a “Maverick” win the Nomination- Goldwater, McGovern, etc.

Rove and co has not trotted out their usual dirty tricks, and I doubt there will be much polling fraud, as it’s not worth it unless the election will be close. (Of course, it won it for them in OH and Fla, so it does work)