Massacre. Dick Cheney commits seppuku in the Rose Garden, Palin set adrift on an ice floe. Congress immediately proceeds with groundwork for overturning the Amendment limiting the President to two terms. Americans across this land join hands and sing from the Woody Guthrie songbook. George Bush announces plan to divorce Laura, and marry Palin. Todd Palin.
Me? Oh, tequila and bongwater. Want some?
My prediction, posted in The Game Room thread a few days ago…
Obama - 338
McCain - 200
Obama - 52%
McCain - 46%
Barr - 1%
Nader - 1%
I think Obama takes Florida and Ohio, but doesn’t take Missouri or Georgia
Gimme.
Shit! I meant to include CO and NM in my prediction…
Just went to vote. Had to wait about an hour here in brooklyn yet I was only the 250th voter. It seemed like it was quite slow.
In that case, sign me up for 323 for Obama.
Based on late polls especially Gallup I am predicting a big win in the popular vote:around 9-10 points
Obama: 53%
McCain: 44%
In the EV I am assuming that Obama’s ground game will deliver almost every state where he is tied or better:
Kerry + Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri
Obama: 364
McCain: 174
Most likely Obama 338 / McCain 200, but I really have high hopes for Obama 367 / McCain 171. As far as popular vote, Obama ~52 / McCain 44.
Obama 382, McCain 156. Obama gets all the Kerry/Gore states, plus VA, CO, NV, NC, OH, FL, one of IN/MO, one of MT/ND, and (my favorite wildcard) GA.
Dems pick up 8 Senate seats tonight, and the GA contest goes to a runoff.
Dems gain 23 House seats, net.
Obama, 50-48% McCain gets PA and FL, but not OH.
Fivethirtyeight just posted their final projection. Looks like they agree with me 100% (though theirs is weighted “probabilistically” and shows 348.6 for Obama, but our picks are identical).
They’re more generous with the popular vote-- they’ve got 52.3% for Obama, 46.2% for McCain.
An article at
says that if you want the best Presidential Predictors,
forget the Polls, forget the news channels. Instead, check out
the hardcore gambling sites.
It’s a quick, intrigiung read and I hope you’ll give it a look.
The author provides links, so I went to the gambling site that has
(according to the article) the best track record for PresPredictions.
It’s in the UK at
I scrolled down to see some of their picks. According to the graphs,
and buttons at the right…
McCain clearly wins GA, IN and ND
Obama clearly wins FL, NC, OH and PA.
There are more data available here. Happy mining!!
Obama wins the election hands down.
I might have misinterpreted the graphs, and if so, I apologize, In any event,
I hope this idea adds to your election night pleasure
I read this somewhere a few weeks ago – I’ve been following it on InTrade, though. I wonder how it’ll play out tonight.
You know, I used to believe that these sites might incorporate some kind of special insider knowledge not available to the public, but I don’t believe it. I remember the run-up to the VP selections and they were wrong for both parties. I think they had Obama picking Bayh or someone else that was in the last group. They were sure that Pawlenty was going to get the pick too.
I think even God was surprised at McCain’s pick.
But I had read about Palin HERE and no where else but here.
308 electoral votes for Obama (309 if one includes the state of Omaha).
Barnowl that is a great website- gambling odds are more accurately totaled than I anticipated. cool.
But can we believe Obama wins FL AND OH?
In any event, I’m glad you like it! I’ll be watching it tonight.
IIRC, Palin was at $4 for a contract at the close of the night before McCain’s selection. Pawlenty had been around $30, and Romney at around $60, until some chatter during the afternoon pointing to a Pawlenty pick, which basically ended up flip-flopping Pawlenty and Romney’s contracts.
So, yeah, I’m not really sold on the election prediction markets. Bush was down to around $10/share the day of the election in 2004 (when the Ohio going Democratic exit polls leaked.) If anything, Intrade (and its like) is just a reaction to rumors and polls, and I see no real reason to think it’s some kind of genius predictive system.
My pie-in-the-sky, extraordinarily unlikely, pigs-with-lipstick-will-fly-first prediction.
