Nope. No 270, no presidency. The House would have to decide.
But if one person in each of those states voted that candidate would get those EV even if every other person in the other 39 states (and the District of Columbia) voted for the other guy. So it could be some craziness like 150,000,000 to 11 and it would be a win for the 11.
Now THAT would be voter suppression, right there.
This is how I would go if I had to bet on it, but Obama supporters should be worried that he hasn’t put Romney away in a few of these states. How is Michigan and Pennsylvania are still in play? Romney just needs to pick up 13 EV (not 12 since we still don’t know what the new House will look like and if it is a 269-269 split can we assume 26 (R) state delegations?)
I feel very confident Romster will pick up the 4 states you’ve indicated but if Romney picks up Ohio, Penn or Mich it’s all over. Wisc + any other state and it’s over. I just get the feeling that Romster will pull out a win one of the four big states left and win this election.
ETA: Are there any EV predictors that are putting a probability on a recount in a key state a la 2000 Florida?
It makes you wonder if there could be a feasible election strategy whereby a candidate goes for just those 11 states. He’d probably be favored in half of them already, so he’d only need to spread all of his resources across 5 or 6 states.
Is there an amount of campaigning and spending which would give Texas to Obama?
At this point I do not believe so. Not without the complicity of his opponent.
Ask and ye shall receive. 538 has the chance at a recount in a key state at 9.3%.
Defined as “Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points)”
Is that contingent on the assumption that there is any single decisive state? In 2008, for instance, you could flip any single state except California or New York (which weren’t going to happen) from Obama to McCain, and he still would have won. So even if there were some state that was close enough to need a recount (Indiana, maybe), it wouldn’t have much mattered.
They’re not, not really. In fact, I don’t think NV or WI are in play either- and OH is very close to being out of play.
I don’t think so- I think it’s just the chance that any state is close enough to need a recount.
303 for Obama. I made this prediction a couple of weeks ago and am stubbornly sticking to it.
Unskewedpolls.com (a totally unbiased site in the way that Fox is ‘fair and balanced’ apparently) is predicting Romney wins 359 electoral votes.
Hell, they predicted he’d take Minnesota (!) by 4 points, Pennsylvania by 6 and Ohio by 8!
Totally, totally unskewed. :rolleyes:
Me, I’m going to go with Obama getting 300 or more. As close as I care to call it.
I would like to alter my prediction- now I’m predicting 332 EVs for Obama. Of the swing states, only NC goes with Romney.
You are way more confident than I am. I’m fairly certain Romney has Florida locked up. And in spite of Nate Silver, VA, IA & CO still make me nervous.
I read recently that since 2008, the hispanic population has grown in FL by more than the entire Jewish population (so if there are 500K Jews in FL altogether, then the hispanic population has grown by at least 500K)- plus the poll movement has been in Obama’s direction, such that the state polls in FL are now neck and neck.
So that’s why I’ve changed it. I won’t deny that there’s probably some bias and/or wishful thinking in my analysis, but all I can do is admit it and try and find out what the evidence suggests.
Obama
Colorado
Iowa
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Wisconsin
Romney
Florida
North Carolina
Obama wins 303-235.
Hmmmm. The only way for Romney to get that is for him to take every state that 538 blog currently has as less than 99% for Obama. This would have to include Oregon and Wisconsin. Let’s see… BOTH of these states went Democrat in 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008.
They both went for Dukakis in the 1988 freakin’ LANDSLIDE election 426:111
I agree with Fiddle Peghead
Colorado (9) - Obama
Florida (29) - Romney
Iowa (6) - Obama
Michigan (16) - Obama
Nevada (6) - Obama
New Hampshire (4) - Obama
North Carolina (15) - Romney
Ohio (18) - Obama
Pennsylvania (20) - Obama
Virginia (13) - Obama
Wisconsin (10) - Obama
Obama - 303
Romney - 235
I’ll be the one to take the plunge. Obama takes all of the swing states.
O 347, R 191
To add to my earlier post, I was a bit undecided on Virginia, so I went with my gut. Full disclosure: my gut is completely worthless in predicting how Virginia, or any other state for that matter, will turn out. Worthless, I tell you! But it’s my gut, and I must heed it.
My gut instinct (for what it’s worth, which is not much) is that Romney somewhat overperforms his (state) polls, but not by enough to win. I’ll say he manages to hold the southern swing states (Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida), but the effect doesn’t carry over so much to other regions and Obama holds serve everywhere else.
Obama, 290-248. Obama +1.5 or so in the popular vote. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all by an Obama wave (all but NC: 332), and I’d only be moderately surprised by a Romney win (probably not with more than 279).
Screwing around with the map, it really is remarkable just how vital Ohio is, especially for Romney. If Romney loses Ohio, then he needs to win Pennsylvania along with almost every other swing state (most of which he’s trailing in now), which is basically out of the question at this point. If Obama loses Ohio, OTOH, there are still some plausible ways to win. Most likely: say he loses OH, FL, and NC, he can still get to 270 by winning either Virginia or Colorado along with all the other swing states (each of which he’s winning now). He could even lose NH in this scenario so long as he won Virginia instead of Colorado.
Nate tweets:
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Conditional upon Obama winning, his most likely outcomes are 332, 303, 347, 348, 333, 290, 281, 294, 318 electoral votes.
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
Conditional upon Romney winning, his most likely electoral vote totals are 285, 275, 291, 281, 279, 302, 301, 292, 273, 286.
Nate Silver @fivethirtyeight
I’ll plonk for 303, like I did a couple of days ago. It’s the local mode nearest the mean.