Here’s the map I made on Real Clear Politics on 11 September. I was unsure at the time, and still am, about Florida - but I’m pretty confident of the rest.
In other words, Obama with either 303 or 332.
I predict Obama to lose the popular vote and get 270 electoral votes exactly with these states. Over the next four years partisan politics will get even worse, if you can believe that.
I hope this prediction fails.
I would like to amend my prediction.
FL - Obama
Obama - 332
Romney - 206
This is my best guess as well. The only thing that keeps me from thinking this election is in the bag is the possibility of vote counting shenanigans in Ohio. I think there’s a good chance of some pretty shady stuff going on in that state.
That said, when the returns start coming in on Tuesday night, if either Virginia or Florida surprise me and go blue it’s over.
Mine is Obama 288, Romney 250. Obama gets New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Nevada, Romney gets Florida, NC, Iowa, and Colorado.
My map:
Are you sure that’s your map?
Obama:
Iowa (6)
Michigan (16)
Nevada (6)
Virginia (13)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Wisconsin (10)
Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
Romney:
North Carolina (15)
New Hampshire (4)
All other states will go as expected.
Electoral:
Obama 328
Romney 210
I believe the SANDY effect will be very strong for election day voters in Florida and Virginia and possibily North Carolina. A North Carolina win would be a 343/195 disaster for Romney.
Crane
I think you’re probably pretty much on the nose, but I’m thinking Maine and Nebraska both split their electoral votes based on popular vote in the state. So Romney will pick up 1/4 of Maine, Obama picks up 2/5 of Nebraska which moves one EV from the Romney bucket to the Obama tub:
Obama - 333
Romney - 205
There is not a shred of evidence either Maine or Nebraska will split their votes. The Nebraska legislature gerrymandered their districts to ensure Obama could not win NE-2 again; that was a big embarassment to the GOP there and they made sure to split up the minority vote to prevent a repeat. Maine isn’t giving Romney either distinct.
OK, RickJay. I don’t know that the gerrymandering in Nebraska will be that effective, but your observation is valid. As for Maine, your authority on this is probably no better than mine.
Ok, let’s see what our esteemed pundit class [del]is smoking[/del] predicts:
Matt Matros:
Electoral college 303-235 Obama
Popular Vote 51-48 Obama
Senate 51D - 47R - 2 Indep
Matros is a professional poker player: he’s my baseline.
Jim Cramer, alleged investment guru:
Electoral college 440-98 Obama
Popular Vote 55-45 Obama
Senate 53D - 45R - 2 Indep
I find this prediction to be ludicrous. The electoral vote is off of Nate’s charts.
Juan Williams, Fox News Chatterer, columnist for the Hill
Electoral college 298-240 Obama
Popular Vote 50-49 Romney
Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep
So Obama will win the electoral vote handily and lose the popular vote by 1 percentage point. Not bloody likely.
Leslie Sanchez, Republican Strategist
Electoral college 275-263 Romney
Popular Vote 51-49 Romney
Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep
This is actually a plausible scenario. It would imply that the polls are systematically biased, but that’s not impossible.
Reid Wilson, National Journal. Mainstream inside the beltway organ.
Electoral college 294-240 Obama
Popular Vote 49.7-48.3 Obama
Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep
A somewhat narrower margin than Nate is predicting, but certainly a defendable scenario. The forecast is a tad more Republican than Nate’s model.
Andrew Beyer, Horse Racing columnist, Washington Post
Electoral college 284-254 Romney
Popular Vote 51-49 Romney
Senate 50D - 48R - 2 Indep
Not impossible. Rather dubious though. This guy has written books on sports betting. With a forecast like that, I’d like to know his reasoning. He thinks Romney will just eek out a victory in Ohio, but doesn’t say why.
Not this year. Only time will make the blue islands in Texas grow into the sea of Red. (The Electoral Votes are relevant to the Presidential election but don’t give a true picture of the political details of each state.)
The Republicans do fear the future here. Why else did the Lege force through Voter ID–which was thrown out in court?
This is interesting. The consummate beltway insider Michael Barone publishes Almanac of American Politics, which gives profiles of all Congressmen. Corporations and their lobbyists pay big bucks to subscribe his organ, The National Journal.
Michael Barone favors Romney 315 - 223.
It’s a very odd column, considering that Obama leads in national polling and in 19 of 20 swing state polls. As for “Fundamentals”, according to the Fair Model they favor Romney by perhaps 1/4 to 1/2 percentage point in the popular vote – and that doesn’t take into account the 7.9% unemployment numbers and recent job growth. I’m not bent out of shape about Barone’s outlying conclusions: I am puzzled that he doesn’t weigh this dramatically conflicting evidence.
Nate’s model gives Romney perhaps a 15% chance of victory. But if Romney secures 315+ electoral votes, the polls have gone haywire and Nate will have to go return to the drawing board. That said, if Obama wins by 300+, Barone is unlikely to suffer professional embarrassment, which speaks ill for his corporate customers who really should seek better advice.
Informed people know that Jim Cramer is a clown. But if Barone’s analysis is dubious, that poses a greater problem as he is thought to be a serious guy.
He’s living in a fantasy world. He is calling Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania for Romney. Nothing more than wishful thinking.
That’s not my map at all! Ok, so I’ve got no idea how to save maps.
I accidentally saw Barone on Fox News spouting his “prediction” with his electoral map emblazoned for all. I was reminded of Bill Maher’s “Dispatches From The Bubble.” It reminded me why I don’t watch Fox News.
Oh, and here is what he had to say four years ago:
He’s a partisan hack.
Rush Limbaugh predicts a Romney landslide. Not just a victory. Landslide. “Everything – Except the Polls – Points to a Romney Landslide”
Modern conservatives. They create their own reality.
Based on current polling, I’m predicting Obama gets all the swing states except Florida (29) & North Carolina (15), and no split in Maine/Nebraska for an Obama win of 303 to 235. The only state I’m wavering on is Colorado.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bnGD
I was initially annoyed by the lack of partial voting in Nebraska and Maine until I saw a spot to do that in the lower right hand corner. But from what I hear, Nebraska has been reapportioned to prevent the one Democratic seat they got last time, so the point is probably moot.
Worst case scenario, Romney gets Colorado and Virginia too for a win of 281 to 257. I don’t know why Michigan is even considered a swing state.
I’m with the 303 camp. I think Tim Kaine is going to win VA for Obama.
So NC and FL to Romney, the rest to Barry O.
I… what? How is this possible for even joker like Cramer to have the balls to say?
Does Cramer have photos of Romney fucking a sheep he’s planning on releasing?
This isn’t likely but is really quite possible. Obama’s lead in national polls is slim to microscopic, but he leads in swing states. Plus, the hurricane may depress Democratic turnout in states like Jersey and New York that will end up solidly Obama anyway. I can very much see Romney winning his states by more than Obama wins his.
What I find curious is his specific EV split. Why 298?