Clinton v Trump: Predict the EV count

My bad if this has already been posted on another thread – feel free to merge it if that’s the case.

There’s a website called 270towin, which allows you to create your own electoral college vote map.

Post your predictions here, and update them to reflect changing events and national moods if you wish.

Last week I had Clinton winning 275 to 263. This week, currently, I’m going to go out on a bit of a limb and predict that Trump may have lost New Hampshire, which is anti-tax and probably anti-Clinton, but also anti-stupid and anti-crazy. I’ll bump it up to 279 to 259 for Clinton (for now).

I came up with 290 Clinton - 248 Trump. I basically have Clinton most of the swing states that have significant Hispanic populations, and Trump most of the swing states that are significantly “rust-belty.”

I’ve got 369-169, with the caveat that one Georgia Republican elector has announced he will not vote for Trump. So my final tally is 369-168-1.

The one truly (IMHO) “out on a limb” thing I see in your map is Clinton winning Missouri. But after giving it some thought, I agree it could happen! Obama only barely lost the state in 2008.

Clinton 332 - 206. Same map as 2012.

I was holding out on OH and FL, but after looking at some of the individual state stuff on FiveThirtyEight this morning, I give them to her.

I agree, that may be the farthest reach. But with Trump continuing to implode, my map may yet be proven conservative.


Not a bad map at all, I wouldn’t be surprised if the result is somewhere between your map and mine.

He resigned yesterday.

Phooey. But the way the polls are looking, a GA win for Clinton is not impossible.

I’ve got it 308-230 Clinton, winning most of the battleground states (but not NC or Arizona). Depending on the next few weeks, could change, though.

I think it’s a bit early to be making these predictions, but if Trump keeps melting down he’s going to lose Georgia.

It’s beyond Trump to not pitch fits and melt down. I honestly believe Hillary can walk the middle of the road, say nothing important, avoid any controversial issues and still win due to Trump’s inability to maintain his cool.

EV count.

Clinton: 316
Nothing else matters, she exceeded 270.

It’s interesting to note that everyone is seeing this as a landslide. I agree and I certainly hope we’re correct, but never underestimate the collective power of idiots standing in a ballot booth.

That was always true of Trump, though, and he was doing pretty well until the Democrats ran a great convention and Trump blew up at the Khans.

There won’t be any more conventions, and the thing is that Trump can blow up at a lot of things and not hurt his chances. Trump slandering Obama or Clinton or some other politician or powerful person - I am sure he will call Meg Whitman an ugly pig at some point today - is something that is fine with the uglier nature of people’s desires. By all means take a swing at those people; they’re powerful, and punching at people above the voter is okay. Punching at abstractions is okay; “Mexicans” or “Muslims” in general can be abstracted and the listener can take that to whatever extent they’re comfortable with.

But in taking a swing at the Khans, Trump punched down at an individual, one who in modern American culture isn’t someone you’re allowed to take a shot at; the parents of a dead war hero.

It’s not inconceivable that Trump could manage to go some time restricting his attacks to people and groups it’s okay to attack. He’s done it before.

The problem with Trump is that he’s predisposed to sticking his foot in his mouth. He feels the need to get even is greater than the need to move on. The only hope the Republicans have with him is a shock collar, and a staff member back stage with the button to that collar. Even then, he’d miss the clue to get back in line.


I also predict 341 for Clinton.

Incidentally, I will not make a prediction until we see a Utah poll.

Utah is a weird outlier because while it’s normally extremely Republican, it is heavily populated by Mormons, and Mormons apparently see Trump as ranking just above polio and a bit behind Darth Vader (“At least Vader has a proven record in public administration.”) So while similar states could go twelve to fifteen points for Trump, Utah might be a rare case of a state totally breaking from the national trend by a really massive amount.

There are no recent polls from there, so we’ll see.

300-174, CLINTON!

Couldn’t decide on a couple states. I’ll be unbelievably disappointed even if Trumpy Wumpy wins Montana as his only state.

That’s a good point. I’m hoping most Utah peeps side with Romney. Hell, it might even go to Gary Johnson.