Here’s my unbelievably optimistic map:
Clinton 393 - 145 Trump
Yep, I think Clinton could run both coasts, as well as win AZ and MO. According to fivethirtyeight.com’s “Polls Only,” SC, GA, and AZ are all closer to a Clinton win than MO. Frankly, UT and TX aren’t even out of play at this time. If Trump keeps scoring own goals…
So, optimistic, yes. But not implausible!
On this map, see Clinton eking out victory as long as she holds Pennsylvania. Call it 285-253 if she takes Iowa and Nevada but loses Ohio and Florida. Or rather 285-252-1 with the Georgian defector.
But by now, 332-205-1 looks more probable. Or even 347-190-1 given that oddsmakers now show North Carolina as a tossup.
ETA: Actually the idea of a single GOP defector may be wrong. Perhaps GOP electors will desert in droves, anxious to repudiate this pathetic short-fingered man.
I see that I was double-ninja’ed.
I’d say 332-206 with NC going to Rump.** However,** a terrorist attack or possible wiki leak could have an effect.
Hopefully, Clinton has peeled off enough formerly, Repub voters who now, almost regardless as to what happens in the next 94 days… will not vote for Rump.
380/156/1/1 Clinton wins with Johnson and Sanders each picking up a faithless elector in their home state. Lack of support from Cruz, Rubio and RNC kills Trump’s chances in the South
Just so I can be the first to say it in this thread, Trump will get 0 EV’s as he will be gone.
However, as been noted many times, Trump supporters are 40% of the Republican party, and they will desert in droves if DJT isnt on the ticket come November. Of the 60m votes Romney got in 2012, the Republicans could lose up to 24m votes if they replace Trump with… hell, with Romney himself.
So they still may be in a better position if they still dump Trump, but neither option is pretty.
In any sane world, a result other than 538/0 would be unacceptable.
Nah. DC will go Dem making it 535/3.
The most recent poll of Missouri has them tied. And in that poll, Trump didn’t get a clear majority of white voters. Missouri is two heavily Dem cities, a big college town, and a vast rural Republican stronghold. There is also an increasing Hispanic population. I think there’s a good chance Clinton gets MO.
<golf clap>
326 - 212. I’m cautious
I am probably going to wait another week or so before updating my EV count. We might forget but as recently as late June, Trump’s odds of winning, according to 538, were about what they are now, and he roared back to not only tie but take a slight lead, even if only a brief one.
There is still definitely time for Donald Trump to stage an epic comeback, but he has probably lost some of his undecided voters permanently. For example, voters in more typically ‘moderate’ or centrist states are probably going to have a much harder time being convinced into voting for him, even though some of these voters might not particularly care for his opponent. I’ve written him off almost completely in NH – that’s probably the one state he lost permanently, and it’s a state he could have and should have won. Pennsylvania’s not a state Trump would be favored in but it has been there for the taking, and I’ve got him coming dangerously close to the point of no return there as well. Ohio and Florida are still winnable, but only if Paul Manafort can start working his magic again. One consequences of Trump’s antics this past week is that his ceiling has gone down. By how much, nobody knows. I’m guessing anywhere from 2-5 percent.
The other problem Trump has at the moment is that now that he’s gotten off to such a disastrous post-convention start, all eyes are fixed on him daily. The media are watching and waiting like crocodiles in a moat for him to slip up yet again. And they will keep waiting until Hillary does something that overshadows any gaffes he’s made. I could see Trump having a complete meltdown. It’s one thing to occasionally nod and wink at your base of support once in a while, but he’s created a category five shit storm and he’s still looking for shelter.
348 Clinton, 190 Trump based on WAGs about where she is leading today and states I think will go Clinton. Hell, I’ve heard speculation that Texas might not even be a safe bet for Trump, and if he loses in Texas it could be a monumental landslide for Clinton.
He could conceivably lose Texas, Arizona, Utah, Iowa, and Georgia, but that assumes he continues on his current trajectory.
I think the big question is, what percentage of Trump’s swing vote is turned off permanently?
That would be Clinton 407, trump 131. 
I basically can’t see any combination of likely outcomes that has Trump winning, though I suppose HE must see some…somehow…
The notion of a GOP candidate for POTUS losing TX and UT blows my mind. But … it’s not out of the realm of feasible. It’ll be an electoral blowout if that happens.
I think Trump has saved his campaign – for now. Twice now he’s become ensnared in a personal battle against political ‘civilians’, which is a line he must not ever again cross. If he makes this mistake again a month from now, he’s truly finished. He won’t have time to recover. This was his last chance to get it right. He shouldn’t have survived this, but he probably has, though not without some scarring. I think he lost NH for good, which makes his electoral math more complicated. He probably has to sweep the Western states that are in play (Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico), and New Mexico and Colorado ain’t lookin too good, and he also has to win in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. Ohio and Florida are still winnable, but Pennsylvania, in all probability, is dangerously close to being out of reach. In fact Trump’s unpopularity in some parts of the state is now making what should be a relatively easy re-election campaign for Pat Toomey a bit more complicated and stressful than it needs to be.