I think you’re being way too optimistic. I’m a Dem, but I default to looking at states in a pessimistic light. Even so, I’d say NV, CO and NM are gone, and NM was never in question. PA is gonzo and also probably never really up for grabs.
I think NV and CO are very close now to starting blue, and you’ll have to flip them to win.
The next significant poll out of OH could tell us if the cake is baked. I don’t think Trump can undo the damage by starting to act normal some of the time, and I don’t think he can do that anyway.
It depends on how Trump handles the next few months. If he keeps destroying his credibility, I’m wondering if Clinton could break 400 EVs. I’m not sure what states would push her over.
With 374 I’m already giving Clinton every state Obama won in 2008 as well as Georgia & Arizona.
It’s no fun to suggest but I’m going to play this safe, and I don’t see a lot of predictions along these lines.
Nate Silver’s Polls Plus forecast suggests Trump will recover enough ground to lose Romney style to Clinton and also lose North Carolina. That’s a 347 to 191 breakdown.
Utah, Georgia, Missouri and Arizona could all flip, but I’m working with the understanding that Trump will have more competent people to avoid that kind of blow out. If I’m wrong, I could see them ALL falling out of his column.
I got the 347-191 that others got, then went through and flipped states to red in order based on 538’s polls only set. This is the first map I got that gave Trump a chance at winning. It does not seem very likely.
From the trivia desk:
This is the 269-269 GOP victory that illustrates my much-ridiculed Colorado’s no better than New Hampshire thread from months ago. Reverse Colorado (9 ev) with NH (4 ev) on BigT’s map. GOP now wins with a 5-vote margin, but Trump still needs every one of those swing states. NH is the only swing state on the entire map with less than 6 ev.
I suspect that if Trump loses historically republican states, that would also be indicative of a far more serious problem, which is that republican voters – generally – are sitting this one out. That would not only prevent them from retaking the White House, but also potentially result in their losing congress. That could happen. Not likely, but possible.
2008 + Georgia & Arizona would be 386.
Obama won Indiana in 2008. I don’t see that happening.
I’m guessing you forgot about Indiana, I subtracted that but then that’s 375 minus the one Electoral Vote from Nebraska gets 374. Is that the map you laid out? The idea that you were suggesting a Clinton win in Indiana seemed off to me so I had to do a bit of map play to see if that’s really what you had in mind.
2012 + Georgia & Arizona would be 359, North Carolina went red again in 2012.
P.S. If we’re dining at the table of St. Nate, then predicting Arizona, Georgia, or Missouri for Clinton would mean that it’s just as likely that Trump would win a few States that we think of as being safely Blue. 347 is the number that matches up with the “Polls-Plus” forecast. Not everyone places the same amount of faith in Nate Silver but I’m still inclined to accept his forecast. As of now, he’s got Georgia at 29/71, Arizona at 30.7/69.3, and Missouri at 22/78. Possible Clinton wins but still wishful thinking at this point.
Here’s a question: presidential candidates are virtually guarantied of picking up their home state but New York will probably go to Clinton. With that in mind is there any realistic (not the “I look at everything through Dem glasses”) chance that Trump gets no EVs?
No. He will win Oklahoma, Alaska, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, Alabama, Kansas, South Carolina, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Louisiana, and almost certainly Arkansas and Texas.
Jesus has a longstanding liberal bias.
I like Him when He’s telling me God loves me and that there’s a place for me in Heaven but He really should stick to that kind of thing. That’s what he’s good at. Once He starts shooting His mouth off about politics with all his “feed the hungry”, “easier for an camel to pass through the eye of a needle”, and “let he among you who is without sin cast the first stone” kinds of nonsense He really shows how clueless and brainwashed He can be.
I come up with 391-147, assuming that Trump keeps stepping on his little, er, hands badly enough to lose everything that he could plausibly lose (and if he really continues his losing-it streak, I’m not confident that he’ll hold Indiana, which would make it 402-136), and also allowing for the fact that the NeverTrumpers have got themselves a protest candidate of their very own whose touted “ties to Utah” could flip that state.
And Utah. I keep seeing that Utah is in play but it’s not. It is just a silly notion. Bernie was a fun for a minute but in no way reflects the voting for the general.
LOL. See my comments above. It makes for a nice story but it’s not happening. Why would Utah vote for McMullin? Him being a Mormon is a plus but I’m not sure it’s enough.
The only way Utah turns blue is if the Mormon Prophet himself says to vote for Hillary and even then it might be iffy.
Polls show this race as closer than you might expect, much closer than in past years. Although, not really close in the Clinton-can-win sense. But more to the point, there’s a real possibility Trump might not win the state, especially if McMullin throws his hat into the ring.