I’ve read in more than one place (sorry, no cites) that Utah may go to Clinton, or at least not go to Trump. But fivethirtyeight’s Polls Plus says it’s 95.8% likely that Utah will go for Trump.
I’m curious – what indications do others see that aren’t taken into account by Nate Silver that Utah may be in play?
Because the new third candidate is Mormon and is based in Utah, and because Mormons seem to hate Trump. He also got creamed in the primary.
A poll showed 14% there said they would write in Mitt Romney - who wasn’t mentioned. Romney not endorsing Trump has an impact.
I doubt it will happen, but even the discussion is interesting, and might force Trump to throw away some money there.
He’s just not doing great in Utah compared to past elections. He’s still ahead though. And anyone who’s saying “might go to Clinton or at least not Trump” can be safely disregarded as ignoring reality.
I wonder if Romney is going to endorse this new challenger, at least in Utah.
Trump himself has said his campaign is having a “tremendous problem in Utah”: http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/12/politics/clinton-trump-electoral-map-utah-georgia/index.html
I guess the real issue is that Utahns hate Trump. Since 1980, the Democrat that got the highest percentage of the vote in Utah was Obama in 2008, and he got just under 35%. The polls I’ve seen show HRC to be doing about that level, so there’s no groundswell of Democratic sentiment. But the polls also show Trump with around 40% of the vote or less, with the balance going to Gary Johnson or undecided - and in the primary, Trump got less than 15% of the Republican vote. There’s also that new guy making a vanity run (whose name I can’t be bothered to look up now), and he’s a native son, he may soak up some of the undecideds. It would be a huge stretch for HRC to actually win this state, but the fact that we’re even talking about it at all is not good for Trump; he should be up by 35 or 50 points there.
Basically, Utah is considered in play for the same reason that Georgia and Arizona are considered in play, and for the same reason that Virginia and North Carolina seem to be going solidly towards Clinton:
Demographic Changes
Antipathy towards a historically bad candidate
Utah hasn’t experienced the large-scale demographic changes that Arizona, Texas and other states closer to the border have, but it has still been changing, particularly in the heavily populated Salt Lake Valley. While the state itself trends heavily Republican, Salt Lake City tilts relatively strongly in the other direction. Democrats routinely occupy the mayor’s office, and they recently elected their first openly gay mayor.
The state is still overwhelmingly white (88% as of the 2010 census, 80% white non-Hispanic - cite - PDF), but it has been trending away from that - it was 85% non-Hispanic white in the 2000 census. Utah has also been experiencing relatively rapid urbanization, with its big cities along the Wasatch Front attracting most of the state’s growth.
Although that demographic change has diluted Utah’s normal Republican tilt somewhat, the larger part of the shift in this election is Trump himself. Simply put, Mormons (62% of the population) despise Trump and everything he stands for. Mormons believe in literally staying married for eternity; Trump has been divorced three times. Mormons place a premium on civility and “sanitizing” their language; Trump is rude, offensive and unapologetically crude. Mormons feel an odd kinship with Muslims, and take religious liberty extremely seriously; Trump has promised to ban immigrants to the United States based on nothing more than that person’s faith.
I’m not a Mormon, but most of my family are, and this election has them incredibly divided. On the one hand, there’s 30+ years of history as one of the most reliable Republican states. On the other hand, there’s Trump.
I’d still be surprised to see Utah go to Clinton, but I don’t think it’s impossible. With McMullen, Johnson and Stein in the mix to give people alternatives to voting for Trump without voting for Clinton, I wouldn’t be shocked if Hillary ends up squeaking out a win with 33% of the vote. Surprised, but not shocked.
No extra charge: Evan McMullin - Wikipedia
Not that it makes it much better from the average Mormon’s perspective, but Trump’s just been divorced twice: Donald Trump - Wikipedia
I think Silver’s right, but the data probably assumes that Trump doesn’t go so far over the line that he becomes a joke. I think that if the presidency is in play, Utah mormons will hold their noses and vote for Trump. However, if Trump falls so far behind that his loss becomes inevitable, I could see Utah voters piling on and voting for Gary Johnson so they could say that they at least voted against Clinton and their votes weren’t wasted.
This is where Republicans have to be careful here. Trump is their nominee, whether they like it or not. Every time Trump opens his mouth and says outrageous shit, people immediately associate it with the republican party. Now deep in the heart of red state country, it won’t matter. But in states with demography changes and states with educated populations, Trump could seriously damage the entire party.
Silver elucidates. Bolding mine.
So for 538 the put-away is how they read the demographics more than the polling itself. Is their choice of assumptions correct? Assuming that past behavior of Mormons as a demographic group is predictive of voting behavior this cycle seems to me to be a bit questionable.
Trump has a whole mess of voters in Utah very unenthusiastic about him. They really dislike both Trump and Clinton loads. Romney hates him, obviously, and has much influence. Asked they may prefer him to a Democrat but will they come out and vote for him or just stay home? Utah Republicans are, understandably, not big Johnson fans (his support there mostly comes from independents) but will some significant number vote for fellow Mormon Evan McMullin instead of Trump now they seem to be being given the chance?
The last bit from that Silver quote is also of note - the potential to swing Utah Democratic as a longterm play.
Go back to what Silver wrote about Utah in 2012and it really does not seem so crazy.
Mormons also “are significantly more likely than the population overall to have some college education.”
Urban demographics and educated … huh.
As same sex marriage becomes a settled issue across party lines and, eventually, as the GOP stops making overturning Roe v Wade as an ongoing major to-do item (realizing that it loses them too many college-educated White women), it may be that Utahns may find themselves more comfortable with Democratic candidates, especially ones like Kaine who express a personal discomfort with abortion while strongly supporting the rights of others to make a decision he personally disagrees with.
I personally do not see Utah going for Clinton but Trump will get a majority of voting Utahns to vote other than for a GOP presidential candidate. The total of support for Clinton, McMullin, and Johnson will be far more than the votes Trump gets. That may prime the pump for future progress. And I would not be shocked to see an election eve surprise win for Clinton. (Just pleasantly surprised.)
FWIW, it’s still part of the Republican platform - see p. 13 (as numbered within the document) here: https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/DRAFT_12_FINAL[1]-ben_1468872234.pdf
Yes. The word “eventually” was in there. 
Thing is that the oft-repeated Democratic leadership goal of abortion being safe legal and infrequent has pretty much been achieved.
In 1980 there were 25 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44; most recent numbers are now 13.2 abortions per 1,000 women aged 15–44 years, nearly cut in half. Teens, since the days before Roe v Wade, are more likely to stay abstinent longer, and more likely to be using effective contraception when they do have intercourse. Teen pregnancy rates are at historic lows: 24.2 per 1,000 females aged 15–19 years. In 1957, you know, back when America was great, it was 96.
Given the information, access to various options, and the choice, young people are choosing to be more responsible more often.
I do hope that the GOP leadership does eventually realize that restricting women’s choices and teen education is both a losing play politically and counterproductive to any reasonable goal, even the goal of increasing teen abstinence. Acknowledged that they are not there yet.
Just for general interest, Clinton’s recent op-ed in The Deseret News.
Trump’s will be published August 21st apparently.
Oh. One more item about Utah: voter turnout there has generally stunk. Even with Romney on the ballot it was one of the lowest in the country.
Utah has a moderately large Hispanic population (by share of eligible voter population the 14th largest), which may be motivated to vote in larger numbers this time.
Put that together and shifts may be amplified significantly.
simple reason trump wins Utah.
Hillary supports abortion & gay marriage.
And Trump supports using nukes, racial discrimination, misogyny, and religious discrimination. Things are not really simple there. No matter what you would like to believe.
And Trump hasn’t exactly done a lot to endear himself to people who really, really care about abortion and marriage. He’ll read the right lines if they’re put in front of him (actually, on marriage he barely even does that), but it’s evident that neither issue is actually something that bothers him.
maybe… if all mormons become atheist.
The really religious Mormons don’t like Trump because of multiple marriage infidelities, his religious intolerance, his constant lying, and other minor peccadilloes like that. They likely won’t go Hillary, but they are more likely to go for the Mormon on the ticket.
I was among those who thought that no matter how sleazy Donald Trump was, he would still barely carry Utah with enough Mormons holding their nose to vote for Trump over Hillary.
I am now beginning to have serious doubts about Utah. It was bad enough that Trump was struggling to convince Utah Mormons that he was a man of God, but now he stoops even lower and winks and nods to Evangelicals about his Mormon problem.
Does Donald Trump not realize that cameras are rolling and that his messages will eventually get back to whoever he’s mocking? With Gary Johnson in the race, I could honestly see Utah’s conservative vote splitting and Hillary’s uniting to defeat Trump, which would be stunning beyond belief.
Trump is headed for a catastrophic landslide loss, and he’s going to take republicans with him.