I don’t know about the final electoral college outcome, but I do predict McMullin is going to win Utah, as that state gives both candidates an epic middle finger. They’ve earned it.
I think this is probably pretty close to how it’ll end up. Clinton’s near her post primary peak and might start to slip a little now that most of the critical events of the campaign season are over with. Trump has actually quietly built up more partisan strength from the right wing and that doesn’t appear to be weakening. Where he has lost is with the previously undecided middle and while some of those could possibly return, it would appear to be too little too late. But I’ll go ahead and say he could get 43 or even 44 percent of the vote and Clinton could drop to about 47 percent. The real problem for Trump is the electoral college, which is a wide map and a wide disadvantage.
Sure, why not. I reserve the right to change my prediction, but here goes:
Hillary 50%
Trump 41%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%
McMuffin 2%
HRC wins all the traditional swing states (including IA, OH, and FL), plus NC and AZ. UT goes to HRC or McMuffin. HRC also wins an unexpected state – probably AK or GA.
These predictions are based on 538 models, plus my feelings (which may be wishful thinking) that HRC’s superior turnout will give her an extra point or two and that Trump will have one more meltdown/revelation.
I think there’s also a decent chance Trump gets less than 40% – if so, HRC will probably win AK, GA, and MO (and maybe a few others), and might even win TX.
In August I had it at 332 - 206 Clinton, exact same map as 2012.
Right now I have it as 322 - 216, without a lot of polling after the third debate, which I thought was Trump’s worst.
[ul]
[li]THE Ohio has been way closer than it should be, so I give it to Trump, although I think it definitely could swing now that the debates are over. That would give her 340.[/li][li]FL, I think Clinton will pull it out[/li][li]Obama lost NC in 2012, but I give it to Clinton, she’s doing better than she should be[/li][li]Obama won IA in 2012, but that’s also closer than it should be, so I give it to Trump[/li][/ul]
[ul]
[li]Clinton is not winning AZ or GA, or any of these other fantasy scenarios.[/li][li]NH was never in doubt for one second. nor were CO, MI, WI, VA, or PA, all ridiculous.[/li][li]NV was a little in doubt, but Clinton will win.[/li][li]Trump will win UT.[/li][/ul]
I don’t give a shit about the popular vote except it would be nice if she gets at least 50.1%, which I think is doable.
HRC 52% or more, and 300+ in the EC. As BLD says, she takes all the pastel states. (I really want to say 400+ but that’s likely wishful thinking. But I’ll put one wooden nickel on that bet.)
I think Clinton’s going to take Ohio. The polls are very close, but Kasich is relatively popular here, especially among conservatives, and I think that his nonendorsement is going to make the difference.
McMillan is probably going to win Utah. He’s still behind in the aggregate, but that’s mostly from lack of name recognition, and he’s building that up very quickly right now. This won’t actually have any effect on the outcome, but it will, as adaher puts it, give a big middle finger to Trump (though not so much to Clinton, who wouldn’t have had a chance in Utah even without him).
And I agree with iiandyiiii that Clinton will win in at least one state where she’s not expected. It probably won’t be Texas yet this cycle, but one can dream. Even Georgia or Alaska would be a pretty nice feather in her cap, though.
Of the swing states I think Clinton will take Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arizona. I think Trump will take Ohio and Iowa due to the higher percentages of non college educated white men in those two states. I’m also predicting McMullen will win Utah. Here’s how I think the map will look.
If Trump somehow becomes the first candidate in 56 years to win Ohio but lose the race then I think he’ll win states like Arizona. In that case HRC 308 electoral votes. Any other results 358EV max. I don’t see any scenario in which she gets less than 308 or more than 358.