Presidential results prediction thread

Let’s see who can come closest:

My own prediction:

Clinton-47%
Trump-44%
Johnson-6%
McMullin-1.5%
Stein-1.5%

I don’t know about the final electoral college outcome, but I do predict McMullin is going to win Utah, as that state gives both candidates an epic middle finger. They’ve earned it.

Trump: 40% +/- 5%
Clinton: 55% +/- 5%
Various No-Hopers: 5%

Around 340ish for Clinton, the rest to Trump.

I don’t think Clinton is going to drop. She’ll at least hold the 49% she has now. I’d actually love it if she actually pulled off 50%–a true majority.

Too late to edit, so something like this for the electoral college: 341 to 197

If you want a single hard number on the percentage of the popular vote:
Various Third-Party: 5%
Trump: 40%
Clinton: 55%

I think this is probably pretty close to how it’ll end up. Clinton’s near her post primary peak and might start to slip a little now that most of the critical events of the campaign season are over with. Trump has actually quietly built up more partisan strength from the right wing and that doesn’t appear to be weakening. Where he has lost is with the previously undecided middle and while some of those could possibly return, it would appear to be too little too late. But I’ll go ahead and say he could get 43 or even 44 percent of the vote and Clinton could drop to about 47 percent. The real problem for Trump is the electoral college, which is a wide map and a wide disadvantage.

Sure, why not. I reserve the right to change my prediction, but here goes:

Hillary 50%
Trump 41%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%
McMuffin 2%

HRC wins all the traditional swing states (including IA, OH, and FL), plus NC and AZ. UT goes to HRC or McMuffin. HRC also wins an unexpected state – probably AK or GA.

These predictions are based on 538 models, plus my feelings (which may be wishful thinking) that HRC’s superior turnout will give her an extra point or two and that Trump will have one more meltdown/revelation.

I think there’s also a decent chance Trump gets less than 40% – if so, HRC will probably win AK, GA, and MO (and maybe a few others), and might even win TX.

McMuffin. AWesome. Why didn’t I think of that? He’d probably be more popular if he went by that name. Who wouldn’t vote for a McMuffin?

Clinton - 48-52%
Trump - 39-42%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 2%

In August I had it at 332 - 206 Clinton, exact same map as 2012.

Right now I have it as 322 - 216, without a lot of polling after the third debate, which I thought was Trump’s worst.

[ul]
[li]THE Ohio has been way closer than it should be, so I give it to Trump, although I think it definitely could swing now that the debates are over. That would give her 340.[/li][li]FL, I think Clinton will pull it out[/li][li]Obama lost NC in 2012, but I give it to Clinton, she’s doing better than she should be[/li][li]Obama won IA in 2012, but that’s also closer than it should be, so I give it to Trump[/li][/ul]

[ul]
[li]Clinton is not winning AZ or GA, or any of these other fantasy scenarios.[/li][li]NH was never in doubt for one second. nor were CO, MI, WI, VA, or PA, all ridiculous.[/li][li]NV was a little in doubt, but Clinton will win.[/li][li]Trump will win UT.[/li][/ul]

I don’t give a shit about the popular vote except it would be nice if she gets at least 50.1%, which I think is doable.

The bottom is dropping out for Trump. I think it will be Hillary 52, Trump 40, no-chancers total 8. All the close states go to Clinton.

Electoral: Hillary 380, Cheeto Bandito 158

HRC 52% or more, and 300+ in the EC. As BLD says, she takes all the pastel states. (I really want to say 400+ but that’s likely wishful thinking. But I’ll put one wooden nickel on that bet.)

Trump under 40%.

I think Clinton’s going to take Ohio. The polls are very close, but Kasich is relatively popular here, especially among conservatives, and I think that his nonendorsement is going to make the difference.

McMillan is probably going to win Utah. He’s still behind in the aggregate, but that’s mostly from lack of name recognition, and he’s building that up very quickly right now. This won’t actually have any effect on the outcome, but it will, as adaher puts it, give a big middle finger to Trump (though not so much to Clinton, who wouldn’t have had a chance in Utah even without him).

And I agree with iiandyiiii that Clinton will win in at least one state where she’s not expected. It probably won’t be Texas yet this cycle, but one can dream. Even Georgia or Alaska would be a pretty nice feather in her cap, though.

I’m going to give up on Georgia flipping but bet on McMullin taking Utah and go with 358 to 174 to 6.

Popular vote Clinton 52%, Trump 42%, Johnson 4%, McMullin + Stein 2%.

Sure I’ll take Wesley’s +/-2% on each. Predicting +/-5% though? That’s not really making a bet.

Hillary - 53%
Trump 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

McMullin doesn’t win Utah.

**Electoral College: ** Hillary 358, Trump 180.

Of the swing states I think Clinton will take Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arizona. I think Trump will take Ohio and Iowa due to the higher percentages of non college educated white men in those two states. I’m also predicting McMullen will win Utah. Here’s how I think the map will look.

This. I was going to say something similar, but why bother.

Hillary 341
Trump 196

ETA: It’ll be called for Hillary at 11:01 Eastern time.

Hillary will win NV, OH, FL, NC, AZ, PA, and NH.

Trump will win IA and GA.

HRC 52%
Trump 40%
Others combined 8%

If Trump somehow becomes the first candidate in 56 years to win Ohio but lose the race then I think he’ll win states like Arizona. In that case HRC 308 electoral votes. Any other results 358EV max. I don’t see any scenario in which she gets less than 308 or more than 358.

Agreed on the EV analysis, but I don’t think quite so much PV will go to the “others.”

I’ll say HRC 51%, Trump 43%, others combined 6%