What would a McMullin presidency look like? Would he preside as a good chap? A micro-manager? A Putin-wannabe?
Inspired by this thread and this 538 article, obviously.
I speculate it won’t happen. But if it somehow does, he’d have one hell of a time trying to govern when both political parties would feel like they got jobbed.
Why? Isn’t he more-or-less a Republican? What I’ve read indicates he’d get the backing of the Republicans in Congress. Or did you mean the voters?
He’s more or less a Republican but he’s not the Republican nominee. Plus he would have been a very distant third place.
We can’t speculate on his Presidency because he’s basically a complete unknown. He worked for the CIA and was a Hill staffer. That’s all I’ve heard about him. Oh, also I heard he fucked up and accidentally left a placeholder name on his VP slot in a bunch of states.
McMullin has no chance of winning any state but Utah.
It’s not worth speculating about.
Utah is all he needs.
As we discussed in the stretch run thread, 538 has postulated a Lloyd Christmas scenario where McMullin wins Utah and ends up as a compromise choice because Congress cannot agree to elect either Trump or Clinton.
As the 538 article explains, Utah is all he needs, if everything else aligns correctly.
Which is why I ultimately agree with you that it’s not worth speculating about. It is an interesting lesson in obscure governmental procedures, but hinges on a lot of unlikely events all aligning. If I believed in such alignments, I’d be out buying lottery tickets.
I do hope he wins Utah though. That would be a nice middle finger to set the Donald’s defeat apart from a run of the mill loss. It also gives him someone to blame, but at least it would be a real someone and not a fantasy conspiracy theory.
He’d be the best Republican president since…Bush Sr.
Well, when he rode in on his Unicorn, with the dragons flying overhead, on the streets of solid gold- it would make a cool start to his reign. :dubious:
The steps that would be needed for McMullin to become President:
- He has to beat Trump in Utah.
- He has to beat Clinton in Utah.
- Trump and Clinton have to virtually tie in the Electoral College.
- The Republicans in the House of Representatives have to decide they’d rather have McMullin than Trump as President.
- The Republicans in the House of Representatives have to decide they’d rather have McMullin than Clinton as President.
- The Democrats in the House of Representatives have to decide they’d rather have McMullin than Clinton as President.
- The Democrats in the House of Representatives have to decide they’d rather have McMullin than Trump as President.
- The House of Representatives would have to be willing to choose a candidate who got six electoral votes over either of the two candidates who got 266 electoral votes.
Of these eight items, the seventh is the only one that I’d say you have at least an even chance at.
I could come up with a more realistic scenario where John Kerry wins the election.
The Twelfth Amendment requires that the person voted for be one of the 3 persons having the highest electoral votes. Your claim that Kerry is more likely than McMillan to be such a person is silly.
I don’t think McMillan would win a state delegation other than Utah. Ryan would maneuver all wavering delegations to Trump.
It’s pretty obvious you were working hard to make that a long list. A reasonable person can see 1&2 is simply that he has to win Utah. And 4-8 is simply that he has to be seen as the compromise candidate. It’s all incredibly unlikely but that list is a rather insulting rhetorical device.
Give it a shot.
While he strictly speaking only needs one state to make this work, it’d be a lot easier if he had more. The more EVs he gets, the easier it is to keep the other two from the outright majority.
The main catch is that the only situation where Clinton fails to secure a majority is one where Trump is for some reason doing much better than he is now, and in such a situation Trump probably wins Utah, too.
That said, though, he has a much more likely path to the Presidency than almost anyone else in the country.
Any claim that McMullin will be in that position are just as silly.
Now suppose than Trump continues his downward slide into insanity and starts talking about how he believes lizard people are taking over the world. But before he gets carted off the the asylum, Trump reveals the October surprise he’s been counting on to win the election; a video tape of Hillary Clinton sacrificing a baby at a Satanic Dark Mass.
Meanwhile, ISIS is getting annoyed at how the American media is ignoring them. So they hijack a couple of planes and fly them into the White House and Capitol killing Obama, Biden, Ryan, and Hatch. John Kerry’s next in line for the succession and becomes President.
With the two parties having lost their candidates, they scramble to find replacements. The Republicans decide to go with Pence. The Democrats bypass Kaine and choose President Kerry.
On Election Day, following a really confusing month, the majority of voters decide that they’re looking for the safer alternative. Kerry’s been appearing on the news each night as President and he’s known from his 2004 run. He wins a narrow victory over Pence, who seems like a lesser known figure.
Is this a likely scenario? Of course not; it doesn’t even rise to the billion-to-one level. But neither does the possibility that Evan McMullin will become President.
@Chronos:
I think the 538 article about this mention there was a 1.7% chance that Trump wins by 6 electoral votes including Utah. It’s not inconceivable that even if Trump makes the comeback in most of the nation Utah decided to stick with their Mormon homeboy.
It’s not simply a rhetorical point. McMullin’s going to get more votes than I will in Utah. But there’s no certainty he will get more votes than Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will. Both of them are currently polling higher in Utah than McMullin is. Which means that if Trump falls, Clinton is the likely winner and if Clinton falls, Trump is the likely winner. McMullin only wins Utah if both Clinton and Trump fall. So he really needs two separate events just to win Utah.
Or all the Johnson voters could move to McMullen. And people abandoning Trump could continue to move towards McMullen. Quit trying to make it more complicated than it is. He needs a plurality. It’s not likely, but that’s all that’s necessary.
Or everyone could decide to Write-In “DrDeth”, it’s not a lot more unlikely.
It’s like the difference between a expired , losing Powerball lotto ticket and one for tomorrows. Technically one has a chance and the other doesnt, but the odds are nearly the same.
It looks like the guy’s polling has jumped from 12% last month to 20-22% this month. That’s not a powerball fantasy. 538 currently pegs him at a 3% chance of winning. That’s not powerball level odds.
There’s a derth of polling in Utah so it’s difficult to make out exactly what’s going on. If Utahns’ disgust with the current election keeps up, maybe he can steal 5 more points from each of them or get a lot of undecideds/Johnson voters. I would never have thought it a few months ago but it’s no longer something to laugh off if polling continues this way.