Clinton is WAY behind in Idaho and significantly behind in UT. McMullin is very close to Trump in UT and much further away in ID, but possibly Clinton’s voters plus his own voters could put him over the top.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Trump gets to a majority without Utah. Could telling her supporters in UT to strategically vote for Mcmullin and deny Trump those electoral votes be a good idea?
No. The election isn’t going to depend on ID or UT except in an incredible fluke, and it would be enough of a distraction that it could worry or confuse supporters elsewhere, causing far more damage than it could help. She certainly doesn’t want Mormon Trump-haters in CO or AZ to think more about McMuffin than her. She shouldn’t even mention McMuffin.
Waste of time. Should those votes be essential to Trump’s majority and go to McMullin, then the election would go to the House, in which case the Cheeto Bandito wins automatically. Better to concentrate on the only path to victory, getting more than 269 EVs for Hillary.
It would be nice if McMullin wins Utah or even Idaho, since it would be a very visible repudiation of Trump. But it wouldn’t make any practical difference to Clinton. The only way McMullin’s candidacy could help Clinton is the unlikely case that McMullin and Trump split almost exactly evenly and she manages to eke out just slightly more than a third of the vote, and for that, she needs more voters, not less. She needs to focus on winning, not on purely symbolic gestures.
Are there any states where Trump is going to finish in 3rd place? Because that seems to be the likely outcome for Clinton in Utah. THAT is embarrassing.
Polls of DC show him neck and neck with Gary Johnson. But neither a Trump third place finish in DC nor a Clinton third place finish in Utah would be that embarrassing, considering the partisan makeups of those states/districts.
In 1992, Ross Perot finished ahead of Bush 43 in Maine, and ahead of Bill Clinton in Utah. Both Bush and Clinton seemed to emerge from that election with their dignity intact.
Aside from DC not being a state, that’s an interesting one. Thanks for sharing. In '92 Clinton also finished third in Utah, so this won’t be the first time Utah expressed extreme dislike for a Clinton. Also, Bush lost to Perot by a few hundred votes in Maine. Not sure if there have been any other states (or DC) where a major-party candidate has finished behind a third-party candidate since then.
Clinton herself should not come right out and tell the Dems to vote for McMuffin but that is what party apparatuses are for. Get people at the local level saying it.
**NO!!! ** Don’t make her look more like an opportunistic pol than she actually is. It may dissuade tepid supporters in other states from voting for her.
Clinton should urge her supporters in Utah to vote for her, of course. She’d like McMullen and Trump and Johnson to have a free-for all that lets her win the state while getting 29% of the vote. 538 gives that about a 6% chance of working out in her favor, but considering that in a normal year a Democrat would have a 0% chance of winning Utah, that doesn’t look too shabby.