Imagine that McMullin wins Utah and that the Electoral College is otherwise tied between Trump and Clinton. How quickly would the EC fall in behind McMullin? One thing that everyone hates is instability, so would the Democrats play ball? I’m assuming that the Republicans would jump at the chance to dump Trump. What if Clinton has 265 votes, Trump 269, and McMullin Utah’s 6? And what if Clinton has 269 votes, Trump 265, and McMullin 6?
What do you mean “play ball?” Do you think Democrats would vote for McMullin? Do you think Republicans would go against the will of their voters in all non-Utah states?
If the electoral college deadlocks, the vote goes to the House of Representatives, where each state gets 1 vote. Right now Republicans control about 30 state delegations, although what the makeup will be in the new Congress is anyone’s guess.
The vote goes to the House immediately after the Electoral College has voted, so it’s the composition of the present House that matters.
Trump would be elected President by a vote of the House (it is by state, not by number of representatives) of Trump 29, Clinton 20, McMullin 1.
[QUOTE=12th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States]
…The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote…
[/QUOTE]
As kunilou said. The votes are counted on January 6th, after the new congress has been elected and has taken office. And odds are that the congressional delegations would split on party lines, as Colibri said.
I need to type faster.
That’s for you to tell me. I’m not American.
You’re right. The Electoral College votes on December 19, but they are not counted until January 6, so the new House would vote, not the present one. But the number of state delegations in control of Republicans would probably remain in the majority except in the case of a Clinton blowout, and we are postulating a very close election.
The situation you describe in the OP is roughly akin to asking what would happen if some mysterious Russian turned up claiming to be the great-great-grandson of the exceedingly-young-but-still-quite game Alexei Romanov. But, sure - let’s do this.
The Republicans have no serious desire to ditch Donald Trump, partly because they *like *Donald and partly because they can’t win elections without Donald’s fan club. If they were going to dump Trump for realz, they would have done it a year ago by keeping him out of the primary debates. In light of a tie with Hillary and McMullin being the kingmaker, the Republicans would dither and dodge and nothing would get done.
The Democrats on the other hand, are more pragmatic and also more willing to make a deal. Hillary would offer McMullin a cabinet position and/or a position at the Foundation and promise to work very hard to listen and work for the good people of Utah.
The bigger question is what would McMullen do? And the answer is, I have no idea. Joining Hillary’s administration would answer McMullen’s goal of keeping Trump out of the Oval Office. But would McMullen’s personal ambition force him to hold out for a job that - let’s be serious - he’s not really prepared for? I don’t know. But McMullen joining Team Hillary would be the smart play for him if he can manage not to go all MacBeth.
I note that for McMullen - there are few fates more depressing than being a president with no allies in Washington.