381-157
I don’t think Trump will play as well in the South as most of ya’ll do.
Based on current polls, if he draws just 7% of the vote away from Trump he could flip the state to Hillary.
With a fairly strong, though not airtight, confidence, I’m predicting Clinton 303 to Trump’s 235. I think she is on her way, barring some unforeseen circumstances, to clinching Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa. The current polls may not reflect that, but when I consider Trump’s repeated missteps, his drop in the polls relative to where he was, his inability to escape his bad press, and historical data from 2008 and 2012, I now put those states in Clinton’s win column, provided there are no bombshells or serious missteps. Clinton is flawed, but I think people accept that. The question was whether or not Trump could transform himself into a real candidate. I don’t see that happening, and I think we’re beginning to see consequences.
Votemaster gives her 353 with Iowa a wash. I’ll go along with that.
One thing I don’t understand is that Nate Silver gives Johnson .5 EV, which means that in some of his 20,000 simulated elections, Johnson wins a state. What state could that possibly be? Utah?
Time to bump this!
347-191 seemed to be the most popular choice back then.
PEC’s current is 341-197. 538’s expected value at 328-210.
My call had been 374-164.
Using 538’s PollsOnly right now Iowa and Arizona are basically toss-ups. I gotta think the this last bit will flip them both more. That would be 358-180 (or maybe 357-181 with that Maine district) Georgia is a heavy lift currently running 74% Trump but I still wouldn’t bet against it if these news cycles keep up.
I’ll stay with mine. Anyone want to change?
I think I had the first map that showed a 347-197 result. I’m sticking with it.
He’s at 11.5% in Utah, and almost 16% in New Mexico. Given 20,000 runs, he might win one of those occasionally.
I really think you should reconsider. 347-197 adds up to 544. We don’t want Donald to have even the slightest excuse to say it was rigged…
Well, crap, I misquoted myself, which is really hard to do.
I meant 347-191, which was my prediction way back in post #7.