CONTEST: Electoral Results. With prizes!

OK, fellow babies. I know we have a few threads in our beloved Elections forum about predicting the outcome of the upcoming end-of-the-unpleasantness. I figured one more won’t hurt.

First one to predict these four things:

Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count
Trump’s Electoral Vote Count
Senate Split
Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent

Players may only make one prediction. So don’t think you can make a prediction each day. Choose your prediction and timing wisely.

The prizes:

I will provide the top two winners with these custom titles:

First Place: 2016 Election-from-Heck Winner!
Second Place: 2016 Election-from-Heck Runner Up

The custom titles will be paid for one year. After that you’re on your own.

Scoring:

Players will score points for:

Each Electoral Vote they are off on both parties shall score one point.
Each Senate Seat they are off on both parties shall score one point.
Each tenth of a point in Third Party Vote Percentage shall score one point.

Lowest score - that predicts all four categories - shall be declared the winner.

Tiebreaker:

In the even two or more players are tied after the above, this metric shall be used as a tiebreaker:

Evan McMullin’s Vote Percentage in Utah. In the event two players choose the same percentage, the one who posted their guess first shall win the tie.

Volunteers Needed:

This will largely be self-policing. However, my day job will be crazy in the days following the election. If any kind volunteer wants to help me score the winner on November 9 - presuming we know the outcome - I would appreciate their time and effort.

Commentary:

I truly enjoy moderating the Elections forum. Even in these crazed times, it’s fun to have a place to go where people can geek out about methods, procedures and suchlike in the election process. I hope you all enjoy it as much as I do.

Good luck to everyone. Let the games begin.

When’s the absolute latest that someone can cast a vote? 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on November 7th?

Do we predict everything, or do we just choose one thing?

Predictions until Election Day. But remember, a tie can work against you if you’re late.

You must predict all four items plus the tiebreaker to win.

Is the “third party voting %” just a total non-major-party share, or are we supposed to give separate predictions for Johnson, Stein, and McMullin?

Total Third Party. So percentage of votes not going to Hillary or Trump. Seems simpler that way.

First off, I want to say bravo for this idea. Turn this into a bit of fun, to help with the stress.

And I will go ahead and pull the PEC prediction:

Clinton 317
Trump 221
Senate 50/50
Third Party: 8.2%

Unfortunately, no one seems to be doing a good third party combined, so I looked at last year. It seemed total the actual candidates, with undecided completely absent. So I just added up Johnson and Other from the PEC source (HuffPo Pollster), since the downward trend seems to be leveling out.

To clarify: Your post leads off with “first one to predict all of these things”, but then talks about scoring based on how far off we are. If I predict them all correctly, but totally flub McMillan’s Utah vote, and then someone else gives the same prediction as me, but nails McMillan, which of us wins?

n/m

Apologies.

I decided on the scoring system instead and edited an existing post. The points system is the play.

Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count 347
Trump’s Electoral Vote Count 191
Senate Split 52 Democratic, 48 Republican
Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent 6.1%

Clinton 338
Trump 200
Senate - agree with Velocity 52 dems/48 reps
Third Party (Dr. Kevin Philps Bong) 7.4%

Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count 347
Trump’s Electoral Vote Count 191
Senate Split Right down the middle 50/50
Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent 4.8%

Hillary’s EV: 358
Trump’s EV: 180
Senate: 52 for Democrats, 48 Republicans
3rd party: 4.9%

Hillary’s EV count: 288
Donald’s EV Count: 250
Senate: 51 D, 49 R
3rd party: 6.2%

I propose just one tiebreaker: who was first. It’s a lot bolder to predict a result now than the day before.

Here’s mine:

Hillary’s Electoral Vote Count-279
Trump’s Electoral Vote Count-253
Senate Split-51-49 Democrats
Third Party Vote Percentage, expressed in tenths of a percent-4.7%

McMullin in Utah-35%

Oops, forgot McMuffin in Utah: 33%

Our first prediction of McMullin carrying Utah. Cool.

It’s pronounced McMuffin.

Clinton 347
Trump 191
Senate 50/50
Third parties 8.3%