538: Everything You Need To Know About The Ohio 12th Special Election
Go read it. It’s got the polling, the 2012 and 2016 county-by-county Presidential results, benchmarks based on each election, the numbers and swings from the other House and Senate special elections since Trump became President…really, just chock full of good stuff. It’s 538 doing what it does best, and doing it very well.
Somewhat off topic, but according to this Twitter thread of Nate Silver’s, it looks like the Dems will have candidates in all but 3 Congressional districts in November: CA-8, GA-8, and NC-3.
There are apparently upwards of 3 dozen districts that will be without a GOP candidate.
CA-8, GA-8 and MI-1.
CA-8 had three Democrats running but due to California’s system they all got knocked out in a strong Republican district; in GA-8 the candidate decided late on to run for a different office (State Agricultural Commissioner); and in MI-1 the candidate got disqualified for a “technical goof” but is running a write-in primary campaign and may well still win and be on the ballot for the general. So it might only be two districts without Democrats in November.
I didn’t mention MI-1 because like you say, it looks as if there will be a Dem candidate on the ballot in November. But there is no Dem running in NC-3.
Jones in NC 3 said this is his last time running.
Balderson has now pulled ahead with 74% of precincts reporting:
Balderson 50.1%
O’Connor 49.3%
NYT is showing those same percentages but with O’Connor in the lead. It’s all going to come down to Delaware.
I’m seeing 74% reporting, but you have the names backward: WaPo shows O’Connor with 50.1%. Can you double-check your source?
Edit: Also, the Green candidate has 0.6% of the vote. Rage.
The Green Party candidate,Joe Manchik, has .6% of the vote, which might give the GOP candidate enough of an edge
The Green candidate adds an interesting wrinkle. If Balderson pulls ahead, but the Green votes would’ve put O’Connor over the top, what pressure will be brought to bear on Green voters over the next two months before these three candidates face off again?
I’m also using the Washington Post. It’s flipped again.
79.5% reporting
O’Connor 49.9%
Balderson 49.5%
And FUCK the Green Party!
Yeah, I think either you misread, or (less likely) they had a temporary data screwup. At any rate, I’m cautiously pessimistic about this race now; 538 is calling it Balderson’s to lose, given the makeup of the remaining precincts.
MSNBC. I see O’Connor at 49.9% and Balderson at 49.5% with 80% counted.
I’d rather teach nuclear physics to a toddler than try to reason with a Green Party voter, especially in a race that everyone knew would be ultra close.
Switching back and forth on NYT site.
Unless there’s a magic asterisk somewhere in the provisionals or the remaining Delaware County precincts are really unrepresentative of the county, this is over and Balderson won. Terrible margin for a Republican either way.
I’m hoping for an enormous fight over provisional ballots, showing how insanely skeevy voter suppression measures are, but I don’t have any facts to back up this hope.
I’m also hoping to hear the champagne-cork-like popping sound of 1,120 Green voters pulling their heads out of their asses.
I’m also hoping for a pony.
I’m not sure people who show up at a special election in August to vote for a third party candidate are going to be very persuadable.
I’m sure there’s no coincidence that the Green Party candidate has a very similar name to a sitting Senator in nearby West Virginia.
Do we know if the Green is a purity pony or a Republican planted ratfuck?