Handicapping the GOP Veepstakes

Politics & Elections
#1

Now that we have a clear winner on the GOP side, who’s Romney going to pick as his veep?

I figure there are a few basic criteria:

  1. It’s got to be someone who has cred with the wingnut base;
  2. It can’t be someone who’s a general embarrassment, along the lines of Sarah Palin;
  3. it can’t be someone who’ll hurt him with independents and/or the pundits; and
  4. the nominee has to feel he’s got more to gain than lose by being on the ticket.

The betting at Intrade gives Marco Rubio about a 25% chance, and then there’s a tier of prospects with chances rated at between 8% and 11%: Chris Christie, Rob Portman, Paul Ryan, Susana Martinez, and Bob McDonnell. They’re the only ones given more than a 4% chance.

People given between a 2% and 4% chance include Mitch Daniels, John Thune, Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Jim DeMint, and (?!) Condi Rice.

If the veep comes from that list, I’d say it’s down to Rubio and Ryan. Portman, Daniels, and Thune are too Establishment; once you look past his hippie-bashing, Christie’s got a lot on his record that will make the wingnuts apoplectic; Gov. Ultrasound has already done his damage; Jindal and Haley aren’t up to prime time; Jim DeMint would rather be a kingmaker than a #2; and it just won’t be Condi.

I suppose it could be Susana Martinez, but she’s been governor of one of our smallest states for about 15 months, and before that she was a county D.A. I just doubt Romney will pick a running mate that unseasoned. While Rubio has been Senator for the same length of time that Martinez has been governor, he was Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives for four years before that. He’s got major wingnut cred, and while he wouldn’t be that much of an asset with non-Cuban Hispanics, he probably wouldn’t do any damage to the ticket either. Though the ‘son of exiles’ bullshit might hurt his credibility somewhat.

Paul Ryan, of course, has been representing the First District of Wisconsin for seven terms in the U.S. Congress, and has buffaloed a lot of people into thinking he’s a serious policy wonk. He’s got solid wingnut cred, the pundits love him, but he’d enable Obama to wrap the Ryan budget around Romney’s neck even more than he can now.

#2

I’d say you have it about right - Rubio or Ryan are the likely choices. Daniels is out of the picture and Christie has too many liabilities. I don’t see any other serious options available.

#3

I’m surprised more folks aren’t looking at Mike Huckabee. He’s wingnut-style crazy, and appeals especially to the evangelical crowd where Romney is weaker, but he’s also genuinely likable.

#4

I just don’t see Ryan wanting it. Yeah, he’s been out there with Romney this week for the primary, but he stands to lose to much in a loss.

#5

If the GOP hadn’t caught so much flack 4 years ago for the Palin selection, I would think they could consider someone off the beaten path… someone with plenty of wingnut cred, major name recognition (to the point that independents would definitely take notice), and who has been pumping up his conservative creds for decades.

He even has plenty of T-shirts out there extolling his virtues!

The only real negative is that he currently supports Gingrich.

Chuck Norris for Vice President?

#6

Thread here discussing many alternatives:

Pick the Republican Veep

#7

Gary Johnson, most likely.

#8

I don’t think Palin, Cheney, or Quayle were considered serious options before they were picked. Jack Kemp was.

#9

Tru dat. But they weren’t exactly good options, not just from my librul perspective, but from a basic “if I’m Mitt Romney, who can I pick that will help my chances of winning?” perspective.

#10

I have wondered this too, but then again, I won’t vote for Romney no matter who his veep is, so I’m not his target demo.

Except that the veep doesn’t really help anyone get elected. Palin might have hurt McCain, but Biden didn’t effect Obama’s electability either way. Romney should ask, “Who won’t hinder my chances of getting elected?”

#11

Isn’t he the Libertarian Party candidate for President? Has something changed recently, or do you think he’ll drop that for a Veep nod?

#12

He did drop out of the Republican race to run for the Libertarian Party nomination. On the Colbert Report he portrayed himself as the front-runne. I don’t know how accurate that is, but I do know that the Libertarians will pick their nominee in early May.

#13

I really sincerely wish that presidential candidates would ask themselves, “If I fall over dead two seconds after being sworn in, who would be the best person to succeed me as President?”

And I’d sincerely like to win the lottery.

#14

If not Johnson, Huntsman or Buddy Roemer then.

I may be delusionally optimistic though.

#15

If a running mate can help a candidate’s chances at all, Rubio might help Romney’s in Florida.

#16

Can’t be Huntsman, an all-Mormon dog don’t hunt. Damn shame in a way. Huntsman might have been the best candidate on the R side this season. If the 'Pubs actually manage to win the thing, he’s somebody I could live with.

#17

I’m pretty sure it’ll be Rubio. He’s a young, conservative, telegenic Latino from Florida. Nobody else brings so much to the table for the GOP this year.

#18

Romney only has four years of public office behind him, he, like Bush II and Obama will need someone that has had a decent amount of experience in the federal gov’t to help shield against charges of inexperience. Rubio has barely been in the Senate a year. Romney won’t pick Rubio.

Ryan’s to closely linked with his budget proposals, Obama would love to turn those into a major campaign issue, chosing Ryan would just make it easy for him. Romeny won’t chose Ryan.

#19

Obama still doesn’t have enough experience to charge his opponent with inexperience whoever Romney picks as veep. Rubio is definitely in play.

#20

Obama was elected with just four years of Federal elective officeholding experience; Lincoln with two; FDR with none. It’s not that big of an impediment.