Harper Makes No confidence motion. Canadian government likely to fall. Election time!

Great Debates
1

Well we knew it was coming. And I’m certain the vote in the house on Monday will topple the government. This may be too soon for some but I’m ready for it. We can’t go on like this any longer. We either make the MPs all put up or shut up.

I have a feeling we are in for a nasty election and I’m not sure what the fallout will be but I think there may be a fundamental change in the nature of Canada once the smoke clears.

Hang on to your hats kiddies it may be a scary ride.

So Can Dopers what are your predictions for the election? Same as usual (doubtful)? Will The Conservatives find a way to connect? What will happen in Quebec? Will this be the final match to light the separatist fuel? And if so will the West follow?

2

How would a change in the parties’ share in Parliament fundamentally change the nature of Canada? (In the U.S., a mere Congressional electoral revolution, however overwhelming, would never fundamentally change the nature of the country; perhaps your Parliament has more power than our Congress.)

3

I believe we’re in for another (reduced) Liberal minority with each of the parties picking up seats at their expense.

The current make-up of the House is:

Liberals 133
Conservatives 98
Bloc Quebecois 53
NDP 18
Independent 4
Vacant 2

I figure it’s going to end up like this:

Liberals 115
Conservatives 110
Bloc Quebecois 57
NDP 26

I don’t quite have the same dire viewpoint as featherlou. The country will continue to stuggle on as usual irregardless of what happens during this election campaign.

4

Of course, I meant kingpengvin.

Too many open windows at once.

5

This time it is more than a change in parties.
In fact, it is a very complicated matter.

Here are the coles notes version:

Right now the country is very fractured and regionalized. This election is about a scandle involving the Liberal party which is in power in which moneys used for a federal sponsership program was… to put it bluntly stolen and used as a personal slush fund for party members.

Many Quebecers are upset with both the idea of a sponsership program (used to fight seperatists) but of the courruption in the first place. There are only two viable parties in Quebec as it stands The Liberal Party and the Bloc Quebecquois (who are a… get this Federal seperatist party) The likely outcome of the next election is the Bloc will sweep most of the seats in the province.

In Ontario which has the most number of seats the polls show it will stick with the Liberals. There is the feeling that there is no real alternative even though all three of the major parties are running (Liberals Conservatives and NDP).
Many Ontarians (rightly or wrongly) do not trust the Conservatives thinking that they are merely a Western Party with some religous leanings (That doesn’t play well in Canadian Politics) and some sort of hidden social conservative agenda.
In the West there is a resentment and the feeling that they have no say who runs the government. They have been supporting the Conservatives (and a few NDP ridings). There has been a great deal of Western Alienation building over the last few decades. In this election it could be a case of breaking the proverbial camel’s back.

The set up is that if the Liberals retian power and the Bloc Quebecois gains some more seats in Quebec there is a good chance seperation is around the corner. There is also a chance that given the economic boom in Alberta combined with the alientaion they may one day too consider seperation.

It is all a mess and really the one group who will be looked to for blame or praise are the voters of Ontario.

That is a brief rundown I’m missing quite a bit of other pertanent detail (including Newfoundland ansd its quest to capitalize on its offshore oil) And I’m sure others can bring their own perspectives better than I have.

6

Plus ça change…

7

Well I for one am not looking forward to an election. I know its kind of dumb, but dammit I don’t want to have to pay attention to all the politics to the degree one must to make an informed decision around Christmas time. I would much rather think about what I will buy for my loved ones, eat cookies, drink beer, watch hockey and go snowboarding! However that said, I will still pay attention to each party to make an informed choice.

My $0.02 as it stands right now is damn I have no idea who I will vote for. In Quebec I see close to a sweep of all seats for the BQ, Montreal excepted. The Quebecois are angry about the sponsorship scandal, much much angrier then the rest of the country. IMO it has to do with the perception that Adscam (sponsorship scandal, whatever you want to call it) assumed that Quebec votes could be bought, and the inherent implications behind that (that the French are really only constantly whining because they want more money, not because they are a seperate culture inside of Canada), maybe even that the French are stupid, if your vote can be bought with a few poorly run ads you are probably stupid.

In the Maritimes, it will be like it always is. Some Libs, some Cons, some NDP (maybe 1 or 2), but they have such few seats they aren’t a huge priority for ANY party.

In Ontario, well god knows what will happen. What a lot of people don’t understand about Ontario voters is a few things. One of these things is Mike Harris. We let him run our province from 1995 to ummm, can’t remember, 2002? He did not do a very good job we have found out. The financial state of Ontario was harmed greatly by the amount of debt he left, and has forced the Liberal Party of ONT (a seperate party from the Canadian Liberal Party…sort of, more seperate then the states at least) to do things like impose a Health tax, and other such measures. This has made us wary of Conservative parties.

Another factor in the ONT voter is the Republican party. Yes the US party. We in ONT are probably the closest to our American neighbours. We do a lot of business with them, watch their TV, want (and can support) their sports franchises. Yet you would be hard pressed to find very many ONTs who support Bush. Frankly we hate him as much as the majority of Dopers do. We have a perception in ONT of the Conservative party run by Stephen Harper to be much, much, much more like the Republicans then we are comfortable with. On issues such as Iraq (where Harper has said he thinks we should have supported the US), Gay marriage, and abortion (some of the more contentiuos issues wouldn’t you say?) we see the Conservative party as far to Right. We would rather see money scammed from our pockets then any of those things happen.

Another thing that seperates us from the West, is we aren’t in the West! The population of ONT, and the GTA (greater Toronto Area) is vastly different then the one in Calgary and Alberta. We have greater ethnic diversity, there is something like 100 languages spoken in TO. This larger immigrant population has led to, among other things, a greater need for Social spending. It ain’t easy moving from one country and coming to another. These people need our help. The west has so much oil money this isn’t as great a problem.

So how do I think ONT will vote, or at least me, myself and I? I have no clue. On one hand, damn the Liberals are corrupt, one the other hand the Conservative party has many values that I don’t (including much greater christian influence), the NDP are just not a fiscally responsible party, I like them as a balance. So I can see myself voting LIB or NDP, but not CON.

The west? Well I understand and sympathize with the Westerners feelings. They hate the Liberals. They think they are all a bunch of corrupt idiots, and feel that big, bad ONT, treats the west like dumb cowboys. They will vote overwhelmingly in favour of the CON party.

Which brings us to BC. BC is not really part of the west, it is its own place. This is going to be the battleground. BC is kind of like California, liberal yet still has Arnie as Gov. I have no idea how BC will vote, none at all.

What I see happening is really, basically the status quo. The Liberal party will win a reduced minority government propped up by the NDP. The west will still complain about Ontario, asking how could we do that again, you are a bunch of idiots (I have a problem with so called western alienation, just like I have a problem with Quebec separtists, but this is probably not the place for that discussion). I do however forsee a change in the election after this one (if it doesn’t happen very quickly). Once Bush is gone, and hopefully a more concilatory President is in the white house, once the Liberal party of Ontario has screwed up enough to make us forget Harris, and once the Conservatives get a leader who can actually say with a straight face that his party is not heavily influenced by the Christian right, Ontario will turf the Liberals (for a term at least)

8

The government falls every four years or so, by law if nothing else.

Plaudits to the CBC.

Put up or shut up? They can’t make either choice and never could. MPs, other than cabinet ministers, can do nothing but shut up; their opinions and advice are neither sought nor followed. Backbenchers are there to fill the empty chairs immediately surrounding a minister making a speech that on TV would otherwise reveal an empty chamber. Of course they sometimes are needed during election campaigns and for votes in the House, but for the latter, most of the time they pair, so even then their absences mean little. The country could go on like this forever because it has 138 years of practice.

Oh, please. As for smoke, all that needs to clear is the final adscam report, and a few stolen millions mean nothing compared to the threat of the Alberta Taliban taking over. Although the Bloc’s intent is a separate Quebec, the future of that province hinges more on the Partis Quebecois, whose members, in their infinite wisdom, chose as their leader Andre Boisclair, who used cocaine even as a cabinet minister. And any PQ move toward separation could happen only if it wins the next provincial election.

The only fundamental change to Canada would be Conservative Minister of Religious Thought Stockwell Day’s decree that the Flintstones and dinosaurs existed side by side, and that this be taught in schools.

As scary as Dr. Tongue’s House of 3-D Pancakes.

A low turnout will be blamed on a raging blizzard in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and over the Tim Hortons parking lot in Medicine Hat. Because the blizzard will cause a low turnout affecting only the Tory vote, the Conservatives will preach that an angry God will unleash the seven plagues upon every square inch of Canada except Alberta because, on top of everything else, God hates homos. Alberta will threaten to separate because no one listens to them, it’s Gods law that an appendectomy should bankrupt your family to the seventh generation, and in case you missed it, he hates homos (except — perhaps — one in Quebec).

To whom? Their existing connections begin and end in prayer-pancake-breakfast land (and sometimes Nova Scotia, depending on the cod catch). With General Motors folding its tent in Oshawa, the NDP might even gain where the 905 area code reigns. And when Doris Day sticks his foot in his mouth again, Mike Duffy will pontificate on frustrated Alberta Tories smashing their foreheads against the sides of their hog barns.

The separatist fuel doesn’t need another match. All it needs is another PQ referendum . . . and another and another and another until the separatists win or die of old age.

The West isn’t threatening to separate, unless you’re in Alberta, which has appropriated the term. But Alberta follows only King Ralph, drunk or sober, and even He says the Tories are likely to lose.

9

So Foaming Cleanser I am guessing you aren’t going to vote for the Conservative party?

It wouldn’t be surprising to me at all if Oshawa went back to its NDP roots, even though it is an exaggeration to say GM is folding its tent. They are closing 1 plant, and getting rid of a shift. Don’t get me wrong, this will be a HUGE blow to the Oshawa economy, and will be a deciding factor in the way Oshawa votes (I am from Durham Region, which Oshawa is a part of). However, in the most recent provincial elections the Conservative party did pretty well in Oshawa. That being said, I just don’t see Ontario voting to many Conservatives in, which will continue the western alienation. That has been going on for a long time though, all of Canada pretty much hates Toronto.

Well I agree with a lot of the things you said, I don’t know about the way you say them, nor do you actually answer the OP really. I assume you think it will be another Liberal Minority?

With whom does the Conservative party need to connect? Well, Ontario for one. IMO the worse part of the Conservative parties failed attempts to connect to Ontario is going to be more endless stories on how the Conservative party needs to a new leader/new party/whatever which seem to happen after every lost election, and god forbid might even bring Joe Clark back AGAIN!

10

Yopu know I was refering to the constant debates over the courruption of the Liberal party which has been basically paralysing the process of governing. The results of the election, however they go will put an end to the debate as we will decide whether or not we’ll accept what the Liberal party has done or not by our votes.

By that nonsesne I assume you mean the Conservative party. Wow… I mean wow. I have to quote that again

Yep… I read correctly. So you smear both a party and a province on what grounds exactly? What threat do they pose exactly. Are you saying the Conservative party was created to strip the rights of individuals trash the Chater and then imporse a theocracy or was that just empty headed rhetoric?

Of course you ignore the fact that the increase of the Bloc’s strength only cuases more of a morass in Parliment and of course helps legitimize the call for seperation further. In the last referendum the Bloc and PQ worked hand in hand.

I’m assuming by your gradual elimination of every other province as a bunch of hicks or meaningless yokels you are from Ontario. A pity. As I try to defend my province from accusations that we are all a bunch of arrogant self centred blowhards… Now I have to fight harder. Take off teh blinders for a second and look around… this is Canada. It is a whole nation who has diverse peole with diverse ideas. For this country to function we have to take each grievence seriously.

You do realize before this whole fiasco seperatism was pretty much on the wane. Now that there is no trust in the Liberal party Quebec has no other voice in politics except seperatism (Cherez is floundering and is good as politically dead there)

Much like how you appropriated the term Canada to exclude any one else but Ontario.

Wow thanks for adding to the debate… really really well thought out. I mean I may be a tad alarmist but at least I didn’t give a big FU to the rest of the country while doing it.

11

Strange posts aside, I think this election will be received poorly if it occurs over the holidays. I recall seeing polls indicating that Canadians would prefer to see the election be held early in the new year rather than now. I don’t like the idea of having it now either, but what can you do.

The sad part is, what options are there? Corrupt Liberals? The ridiculous communists in the NDP? The homo-hating Conservatives? Seriously, how can I pick from any of those? I want to see a relavtively fiscally conservative, socially progressive party that has integrity and principles. So who do I choose? I really, really miss the days of a strong PC party.

Now there will probably be those who come on here and say that the Conservatives aren’t so bad. As long as Harper is in charge there, I cannot abide them. His wretched, ignorant, and thoroughly prejudiced crusade against legalizing gay marriage is something I cannot forgive. It flew in the face of Canadian opinion, and more importantly in the face of logic and reason. Until they eliminate him from the party they are anathema to me.

As for the NDP, I can’t stand Jack Layton. He has a smarmy, smug, “look at me, I’m doing something god” look on all the time, and I just can’t accept a fiscally left-leaning party in charge. I pay enough in taxes already.

So the Liberals would generally be my party of choice. They’re centrist (relatively), moderate, and generally accomodating to all sides. But they’re also probably corrupt, and arrogant, and I really don’t like Martin either because he seems like he’s more interested in being Prime Minister than in being of value to his country. Plus he’s ridiculously rich and it bothers me that rich people with business interests can run for office in a democracy.

Maybe I’ll vote Green, or spoil my ballot in protest. Stupid election.

12

Some pundits have called this the Seinfeld election - an election about nothing.

The ruling party doesn’t want it.
The opposition parties don’t want it.
The voters don’t want it.
The issues are either entirely identical to the issues in all previous elections, or the Sponsorship Scandal, which cost a bit of taxpayer money and upset everyone for a while last spring, but we all got over it when we realized that Harpur was the alternative.

It seems to me quite likely that the election will not change the make-up of parliament much at all.

Ontario will vote Liberal, as we always do (see Queuing’s post above). Hell, I’d vote BQ if I could because it’s the only party that seems remotely worthy.

The unfortunate fact is that (rural) Ontario basically determines the outcome of the election because of the high concentration of population here. I hate it as much as y’all do because, as long as I live in Toronto, I will have a Liberal MP and a Liberal MPP, so it doesn’t matter one white how I vote either.

All in all I think it’s time for electoral reform. We have too many regional parties (the new Conservatives are, in effect, a Western party, and a regional separatist party is currently the official opposition) and it’s impossible for a national, ideology-based party to get a foothold. The Liberals are pretty much unbeatable (IMO) because they are relatively inoffensive (at least, compared to the Conservatives and the NDP which are percieved to have a lot of ideological baggage - even if they don’t), because Toronto and the rest of Ontario will keep on electing them no matter what they do, and because they have historically had a lock on the ever-growing “immigrant” vote - although this may be changing with Martin’s recent strongly-voiced support of Israel.

The merger of the right was a total disaster. Now there are lots of homeless red Tories (pretty much the only kind of Tory in Ontario these days), fiscally conservative and socially liberal, who are too left for the Alliance, too sensible for the Liberals, and too right for the NDP. The Conservatives need to undo the merger post-haste and get some John Tory*-style Tories on the federal scene. David Orchard would be ideal.

I’m with Foaming Cleanser: a snore of an election, resulting in another Liberal minorty.

If you want to make a real change in Canadian politics, I highly recommend checking out the Greens - not voting for them necessarily, but they are a grassroots party committed to presenting members’ views to the electorate. In the 2004 election (and the 2003 Ontario one) the platform was written by members, people like us. They are still small enough that a single person can make a huge difference, and now they’ve got federal funding so the right people can accomplish more. They’ve fallen down on the job for this election but with an injection of clever people like those of us here on the 'Dope, they may be forced to come to their senses.

The only other hope I see for Canadian politics is an un-merging of the Conservative Party, and electoral reform.

    • John Tory is the appropriately-named leader of the Ontario (provincial) Progressive Conservatives; the federal PCs exist no longer. Tory is quite moderate compared to Harris, the PC who most recently held power here.
13

from Scule.

I really hope you don’t do this (the spoiling of the ballot, vote for who you please) if by spoiling your ballot you mean marking more then one candidate or the like. All that happens when you do that is they basically throw it away. They do count them, but it could just mean you are to stupid to know how to vote (in Canada its real easy, no chads or machines, you get a piece of paper with the candidates and the parties listed on it, and you make an X next to who you want). Instead I would recommend refusing your vote. Just go to the electoral officer and say I am here, I would like to vote but I cannot due to the quality of candidates therefore I need to refuse my vote. They will then put your vote in an envelope, and count it as refused. Again they just throw these out, but IMO its makes somewhat of a stronger statement as stupid people wouldn’t do that.

from cowgirl.

Really? I hope you are joking. I don’t see how a party dedicated to destroying my country is at all worthy.

from cowgirl.

What would you like us to use? An American style system? To me, the system we have has been used fairly effectively for a number of years. I like the first past the post system. I think it allows strong governance. Reforming the system is a knee-jerk reaction to the dismal failure of the Conservative party in Canada.

This seems defeatist. Plus I smell a displaced westerner, no Torontonian says y’all! You probably say the 2nd “T” as well, :rolleyes:

As for your other suggestion about the Green party, I will admit to not knowing much about them, but why would I vote for them when I could just vote for the NDP? They are fairly Green, and I couldn’t imagine the Green party being any more fiscally responsible.

Nor do I think it is necessary to un-merge the Right. We have finally got them to at least pretend to agree, and not offer the excuse of ‘splitting the vote’ each year, when really it is just a failure of leadership. Chretien may have stolen money, but he was charming in a way. Ontarions tend to think French guys speaking English is endearing. Neither Manning, Day or Harper have any charm in them. What, they expect us to vote SOLELY on issues? Pffttt

14

It’s gets a big fat “MEH” from me.

I predict status quo - a few less seats for the Liberals maybe, but generally a big fat waist of time.

Further, regarding Quebec seperation - as far as I’m concerned, it will never happnen. Ever. Why do I say this? Every single proposal ever put forth by any seperatist party features Quebec getting all of the native treaty land, parts of labrador, transfer payments from Ottawa, and using Canadian money, despite being it’s own “country”.

Well sure - I guess folks could vote for that, but no Canadian govt would ever go for it. Basically, if Quebec were to leave, they would leave on their own - starting a country is expensive, and Quebec has no $$. It just aint going to happen.

Regarding Alberta seperating - that’s even more laughable. Alberta may have tonnes of oil money (boy do we ever - I get my $400 cheque sometime in Jan just for living here…) - but it also has loads of people from Saskatchewan, Manitoba, BC, Ont, Maritimes, etc living here - those people would object pretty loudly if they awoke one day to find they were in a different country. Also, apart from a few cranks, native Albertains aren’t particularly interested in leaving Canada - total non-starter. Foolish to think otherwise.

15

I expect that a lot of voters share my views about Adscam as not being about Leberal Party corruption so much as being about the corruption of politicians in general. The old Conservatives when they were in power under Mulroney had their own corruption scandals, and in my personal opinion the only thing that has kept the new Conservatives and the NDP from major scandals so far is that they haven’t been in office to have the opportunity.

I wouldn’t be surprised if there wasn’t something of a voter backlash against the parties who are seen as forcing an early election just because they see a political advantage in it.

I sometimes voted old Conservative, but won’t vote new Conservative because a) their major policy statements seem to boil down to “We aren’t the Liberals” mixed with vague, no details motherhood statements. They also seem to have a much higher ratio of total wackoid MPs/candidates than the other parties, with less apparent interest in controlling or renouncing them, which makes me leery of unstated agendas which I would probably strongly disagree with.

In addition to the above, I should advise that I actually work for the Federal government, and frequently find that I have some inside knowledge on the latest media/politician issue de jour, and can say that they rarely demonstrate any understanding or knowledge of the facts (on either side of the issue).

16

Its religious crackpots, the party’s change of name every couple of years (remember, it almost named itself the Conservative Reform Alliance Party, or CRAP), its push to kill medicare, and Stockwell Day for more reasons than crackpottery preclude the possibility. Stephen Harper comes across as relatively sane, but he might quit, as is mentioned by you. Harper recently pondered publicly whether he should leave that bunch of internecine-sniping squabblers to their fate, coming election or not, which proves he isn’t completely nuts. But he stayed, which proves he is. Any advanced Star Trek computer pondering that paradox would blow up.

My Smear-O-Matic broke, so you’ll have to read the post again.

Of course Stockwell Day would be made Minister of Religious Thought, the Charter will be trashed and Canada will become a theocracy. The Irish ate their babies, so anything can happen.

Not as much as Bloc-Tory co-operation, which will force an election, the Tory goal no matter the cost. If a minority Tory government could exist only with the separatists’ support, watch it happen.

Nope, but I live in Ontario now. However, I’ve lived elsewhere far longer. I’m an equal-opportunity smearer. By the way, in saying this, you called up a stereotype of your own.

But only until that party of opportunists forces an election, even in the midst of winter, Christmas be damned (and despite all the religious Tories’ ideals).

Put the blame where it belongs. The Liberals want to govern. It’s the Tories opening this Pandora’s box. Without Harper’s no-confidence motion there wouldn’t be an election. Charest’s floundering will have far more impact only because of this Baby Huey conceived in the Tory-Bloc marriage bed.

Cite?

Hey, anytime.

17

Wow, just wow. Is this ignorance or just bitterness? I live in Alberta, I don’t have a hog barn. I would also describe myself as fiscally conservative and socially liberal. I will not tolerate religious dogma becoming part of party policy. So which party do I choose?

Well, I don’t vote for parties that have been proven corrupt through the legal system. I won’t vote for the NDP because I disagree with all their policies and think they would bankrupt this country. So I guess that largely leaves me with the Conservative party (Albertan Taliban? How old are you?). Did I support their stance on gay marriage? No. What can you do? What party exactly beleives in everything you beleive?

I get very tired of the rhetoric used to scare people away from the Conservatives. “They are going to get rid of public health care” was Paul Martin’s battle cry during the last election even though he doesn’t use the system, and Stephen Harper does. Personally I think Stephen Harper is a thoughtfull person who doesn’t really have a burning desire to be in politics, but feels he has a duty to his country untill someone better comes along. He does know about fiscal policy.

As to the OP, who do I think will win? - the Liberals. As pointed out earlier Ontario and Quebec have enough seats to determine the government of Canada. I have lived with this as a fact of life. Elections are determined by Eastern Canada several hours before I get to vote, but I still vote because I was taught it is a civic responsiblity. So I am mystified by the rabid west bashing in this thread.

18

I’m not west-bashing. Don’t confuse the geographic West with the Conservative power base, which happens to be in the West and with which I have so much disdain. If the Liberals were sympathetic to ending women’s rights to control over their own bodies and to repeal gay rights, pass legislation based on Christian superstition and weaken or erase 40 years of medicare, I’d complain about them, no matter where their base, East, West, North or South. The Conservatives, Alberta provincial and federal, are masters at conflating the geographic West with party politics. Saying this is west-bashing is buying into the Tory product.

19

And then the Glorious Yankee Empire will move in to pick up the pieces! BWAH-HAH-HAH-HAAAAAH! [rubs hands together]

:o Oh . . . was that out loud? Please disregard, go on with what you were doing. Pay no attention to those troops conducting training exercises on the border . . .

20

I wunner if them thar Canucks got any WMD’s?