Yippee! Now I get to figure out where I’m voting (the joys of being a temporary ex-pat who has lived in 3 provinces and who knows how many electoral districts ).
alice, for the record, you should know the problems you mention about reserves in Manitoba are pretty much the same wherever you find a reserve. I have two friends who are frequently in Kahnewake in Quebec, who go up north to reserves too, and I know guys from the Musqueam and Burns Lake (?) area in B.C. Indians across Canada have the same problems. Too much booze, too much time, and not enough opportunities or role models.
Stepher Harper has announced his government will try to reinstate the “Traditional” definition of marriage.
So, he’s just thrown away his chance of forming the government. This will cost them any hope of doing better in Ontario. Great, another Liberal minority. Thanks, Steve.
Well, at least he got it out of the way quickly… 
I have to admit, I was hoping for better things when the PCs and the Reform, er, I mean, “Alliance”. merged. Right now, though, the new Conservative party looks like the Reform party all over again, just wearing the skin of the old Progressive Conservatives to try to look more centrist.
I could have a long interesting discussion with conservatives about economic, trade, energy, and sustainability policy, and maybe learn a few things too. I might have been open to considering a vote for them. But by coming out of the gate with retrogressive social policy, the Conservatives have shown their true priorities and lost my vote.
[puts on tight-fitting vest] Hi, my name is Stephen Harper and I’m actually taking bribes from Jack Layton and Paul Martin. [/removes tight-fitting vest]
That’s called ‘playing to your base,’ and it’s a stupid thing to do during a political campaign. The anti-equality bigots are going to vote Conservative no matter what, so the only reason to bring up the gay marriage issue, which has already been settled, is because Harper’s people think they’re higher in the polls than they really are, and they want to be able to point back to this moment when they win a government and say ‘See, Canadians really want to live in a socially conservative country.’
The problem is that evangelical anti-gay Canadians are a minority, and a small one at that, even if they are vocal. They are not as widespread and powerful as they are in the U.S., and never will be.
Canadians care about money. They care about scandal. But a whole generation has grown up admiring Trudeau’s statement that the state has no business in the bedroom. And we’re not about to open up the door to government with Mr. Harper delivering that kind of intrusive message.
Yes, this blew my mind. Right at the beginning, bam here you go, gay marriage. Geez does the backbone of the Conservative party really care that much about who gets what tax breaks? This is unfathomable.
Dumb. Anyone got the transcript or quote? The only way this could be not-entirely stupid would be for him to have been addressing free votes.
I’m assuming the Conservatives get a majority and pass a law excluding gay marriage. Wouldn’t they have to use the notwithstanding clause because the Supreme Court said gay marriage was enshrined in the constitution?
Or am I just thoroughly confused?
Yes, this blew my mind. Right at the beginning, bam here you go, gay marriage. Geez does the backbone of the Conservative party really care that much about who gets what tax breaks? This is unfathomable.
err, weird, dbl post 34 minutes apart, not sure how that happened, sorry.
Yes, he wants to have a free vote on it. From here:
One of the pundits this morning was suggesting that he said it first thing in the campaign to get it out of the way. He knew he had to say it (as the theory went), and he figured if he said it first people would forget by the time voting day came.
Not likely, IMO - he has now fully alienated most urban voters, I think. Of course, as others have pointed out, most strong supporters of gay marriage wouldn’t vote for Harper if their lives depended on it, so what has he lost?
I realize the discussion has moved on, but I would like to point out that it’s not just Alberta that gets significant revenue from oil & gas.
Landsale prices in BC (leasing petroleum and natural gas rights from the Crown) have gone absolutely insane over the last few years, and there have been significant gas discoveries recently in the province.
Saskatchewan is also having a record year in terms of wells drilled. That is certainly largely due to the price of oil being so high, but the price would have to fall signficantly to even start to make drilling uneconomic. There is also a great deal of new shallow gas development in southwest Saskatchewan.
Even Manitoba is getting in action - there is a new deeper oil play that is attracting a great deal of attention, straddling the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border.
Terra Nova is still producing, White Rose has just come online - there are other off-shore developments, I just can’t remember them all.
Heck, there’s even been an announcement of a gas discovery in the Territories!
I won’t deny that oil & gas make up a much larger portion of Alberta’s revenues than in some of the other provinces, but please don’t assume that Alberta is the only place oil & gas development is taking place.
(disclosure - I work for a major Canadian oil & gas company. I know lots and lots about what is currently going on in SK. It’s keeping me employed.)
On the contrary; I personally am a strong supporter of gay marriage and I’m voting Conservative. I’m doing it holding my nose, and even then only because I think Harper can’t actually ban gay marriage no matter what he says, but this announcement will probably lose them my wife’s vote, and I can think of many other people who don’t want to vote Conservative because of this one issue. That’s just anecdotal evidence, but my read of the political winds in Ontario is that it’s a widespread issue - people would vote Conservative if only they weren’t worried that they’re socially reactionary. A LOT of people want the Liberals gotten rid of. A LOT of people are open to conservative economic ideas, to rebuilding the military, etc. But they’re turned off by the right wing attitude on gay marriage.
Gay marriage in Canada is a done deal. It is as inevitable as the sun rising in the East. Harper can’t stop it, and it’s stupid of him to throw votes away on this issue. The man otherwise seems very smart; I cannot believe he would do something this appallingly stupid.
RickJay, I was wondering what part of Toronto you live in?
Do you feel your riding even has a chance to go Conservative in this election?
This is, IMO, very true. While I wouldn’t put it all down to just gay marriage it is a hot button issue. I agree completely with your assessment of the situation here. Again this is purely anecdotal (yes yes I know) but most people I know feel the same way. The Liberals are corrupt, and wouldn’t mind change. However if that change involves socially conservative ideas they would rather wait until the next election in a year or 2, and see if the Conservative party has its act together yet. I would say you are in a small minority of people in favour of gay marriage and voting conservative.
The perception of the Conservative party is that is still just the Reform party, regardless of name. That it still has some pretty ‘Republican’ ideas. Ontario is a small c conservative province. Right now that small c begins and ends at the Liberal party.
I am not sure why you think Harper is an otherwise intelligent man. He has done it again. There was no reason to say this. The people who wanted to hear it are almost assuredly going to vote Conservative anyway, the people who are heavily in favour of gay marriage won’t going to vote for him. What it does is give the Liberal party ammunition “see? look what they want to do? Next thing you know the lord’s prayer is going to be said in school agian, abortion will be out, and we will be in Iraq”. Same thing that allowed the Liberals to win the last election. To make a mistake is fine, to not learn from that same mistake is stupid.
:: nods ::
I was a David Orchard federal conservative for a while (at the same time that I was a provincial Green). IMHO, if the Progressive Conservatives hadn’t blown it with their brand of corruption and obsequiousness back in the nineties, we’d have some better choices now.
I’m not sure of that. If the Reform Conservatives get a majority (or a minority with sufficient support) and have their free vote in the Commons, could they repeal the 2005 Civil Marriage Act?
In other speculation, could there be a Bloc minority government? We were speculating today at lunch at work, and we were wondering: if the Bloc swept all 75 seats in Quebec, and all the other seats in Canada were divided equally among the Greens, Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP, would the other parties have fewer than the Bloc?
Hmm. (308-75) / 4 = 58. Theoretically possible.
No way, not going to happen. There is no chance, none, zero, zilch, that the Green party gets even close to say 10 seats (and I am being generous). BQ may get all 75, doubt they sweep Montreal though, but the Green party? No way. The party that gains the most from this election may very well be the NDP.
I actually agree with you, Queueing; I think it’ll be a major breakthrough if the Greens actually get one federal seat. I was wondering whether it was theoretically possible. 
Okay, let’s say the Bloc sweeps Quebec and the other seats are divided as evenly as possible among the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP. That’s 75 seats for the Bloc and 77, 77, and 78 seats for the others. If the Greens had 7 seats in the right places, they could bring the seat numbers of the other parties down to tie them all at 75.
Besides, maybe the NDP in the form of our illustrious matt_mcl will get a seat in Montreal…
Yes, and then the case will go in front of the Supreme Court, which will overturn the ban. The only way to ban gay marriage is to invoke the notwithstanding clause. Harper keeps pretending that there’s another way, but constitutional experts say that he’s completely out to lunch.
Hmm, if that happened I don’t see anyone being able to form a government and we would just have to go back to the polls. If the Conservatives won the 78 that is. Otherwise I guess the Liberals/NDP with 155 would form a government. God that would be a nightmare. These office lunches of yours must be cheery events! 
If the NDP gets more than 50 seats, I’ll eat my hat (I’m thinking 30). For the Greens to even get 1 would be a major breakthrough, 5 would be a tidal wave of support. 7? 10? I say this as someone planning to vote Green – it’s not gonna happen. I’ll even go out on a limb and say (sans hat guarantee) that the Bloc will top out at 65.