To be entirely fair, on the left there was a constant drumbeat about Trump not finishing his term due to: the 25th, craziness, impeachment, covid, resigning to avoid prosecution, etc.
at the end of Biden’s second term he would be 86. That is probably a major reason why people think he won’t run again. Reagan left office at 77 and people close to him said he was not in good shape then although he lived until 93 He was diagnosed with Alzheimers at age 83
Dick Cheney doesn’t count? I thought he was running the country
Yeah, I know, we all want to forget that Dick.
I think it’s entirely likely he won’t run for a second term, but it’s a far cry between being a one term president and stepping down mid-term to allow your VP to run as an incumbent. Like “other side of the Grand Canyon” far.
I like to play around with the idea that Biden will resign on January 21, 2023, so that Kamala Harris can qualify to run for re-election twice (and potentially become the second-longest-serving president in US history after FDR), but mainly as a novel academic exercise than any expectation that it would actually happen that way.
people will start running for president in summer 2023. Little more than 2 years from now. By then if he is not running he will need to say so. If he waits longer than that other candidates won’t be happy. I don’t think other dems will not run just because Harris would be the natural successor to Biden.
Again, that’s all we’ll and good, but there’s a vast chasm between Biden announcing he will not run again - and even throwing his weight behind Harris (although I think it is much more likely he will do what Obama did and avoid backing anyone until a winner emerges) - and him stepping down, as you claimed:
If Biden has a major health issue like heart or cancer I see no way he runs again. Some people can go downhill fast. For example it is not logical but many people who break their hip die within a year or 2 but the hip injury does not cause their death. It happened to my father , it was 2 years in his case.
Yes, if Biden has very major health issues, he might resign early. In that case, he wouldn’t be resigning to