Has Democratic voter turnout basically hit a ceiling and can't go any higher?

Right, so: it may be that at the point we’re at now, the would-be Democratic voting blocs are such that, as mentioned earlier, every move to add votes from the center means losing votes from the progressives with such tight margins that there is no realistic advantage. And not because there are not a lot more potential votes in the center: there are. But I am reminded of a comment I heard some time back from someone on a show that made mis snicker: “the Democrats have to excite the moderates”. Well… there’s your problem: they’re the moderates, it takes a LOT to excite them. While I can sure imagine the more ideologically committed getting tired of always having to “be reasonable”. It takes a lot more work to motivate a centrist than it does to alienate an ideologial activist.

In 2020 the Dems were able to run on a promise of restoration of normality and competence in the middle of the mismanaged pandemic and the Summer of Reckoning, while Trump was very visibly flailing and failing – but had there not been a pandemic and the economy held up as it had been going into Q1 of 2020, Trump would have been a broad favorite for a repeat. As it was Biden won but the Republicans actually gained seats in the House and the Dems barely recovered the Senate by the least margin possible. But then they managed in their unique way to take what should have been smashing victories in passing multi-trillion bills for infrastructure, jobs, environmental and energy recovery, that were larger than anything D45 had promised and failed to deliver, and let the opposition define the narrative (and even take credit for things they voted against) while insisting we were being destroyed by pronouns, fentanyl and the price of eggs.